Top NFL Pick: Giants ML (+205) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
There were many upsets in the NFL in Week 14, but one of the biggest by point spread was the Giants (+6) beating Green Bay on Monday night behind a sublime performance by rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito, New York’s latest folk hero.
DeVito, the greatest Italian-American athlete since Rocky Balboa, is only the 3rd undrafted rookie quarterback to win 3 straight starts since 1950. Against the Packers, he completed 81% of his passes, took 0 sacks, threw 0 interceptions, and he rushed for 71 yards – numbers no other quarterback in NFL history has ever had in a game before Monday night.
The Giants (5-8) suddenly trail the Saints (6-7) by only one game in the NFC. Yet New Orleans is still a 6-point home favorite at our main offshore sportsbooks in this matchup. Can DeVito pull off another upset in The Big Easy? We have our list of NFL odds for why the Giants can add to this disappointing season for the Saints.
New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, December 17, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Caesars Superdome
Giants Need to Light Up Derek Carr Like a Christmas Tree
Simply put, Derek Carr is killing the Saints’ offense this year. Whether it is the injuries or still not being comfortable in a new offense in December, his unwillingness to take some time off for fear of losing his job to the more aggressive Jameis Winston is holding this offense back.
- Carr’s 3.1% touchdown pass rate is the lowest of his career.
- Carr’s 6.9 yards per pass attempt is his 3rd-lowest season of his career and lowest since 2017 (6.8).
- Carr’s 221.5 passing yards per game is his lowest since his 2014 rookie season with the Raiders.
- Carr’s 46.5 QBR is his lowest since 2015.
- Carr’s 6.0 adjusted net yards per attempt is his lowest since his rookie season.
- Carr is usually known for leading comebacks to win games, but the 2023 Saints are a league-worst 0-5 at 4th-quarter comeback opportunities.
Against the 1-win Panthers at home on Sunday, Carr started the game 12-of-18 for 37 yards and an interception. How is it even possible to complete 12 passes for 37 yards? Earlier this season against Tampa Bay, Carr completed 23 passes for 127 yards, the fewest passing yards in NFL history in a game with exactly 23 completions. That was the game where Alvin Kamara had 13 catches for 33 yards, so Carr has definitely fallen in love with the checkdown this year in a way that has hurt the offense.
The Giants blitz 37.5% of the time, the 3rd-highest rate by any defense this year. They aren’t good at getting pressure, but they do make the quarterbacks throw it short and get rid of it quickly. The average pass against the Giants is 7.1 yards, the 5th-shortest in the league this year.
Carr has already lost both games this year to the only teams that blitz as much as the Giants. He lost to the Vikings in a game where he left injured, and he lost 26-9 to the Buccaneers. In both games, Carr had his worst rates of gaining 1st downs through the air, so look for the Giants to bring the heat and make him continue to dump the ball off for weak gains.
DeVito Needs to Channel His Inner Daniel Jones
These teams last met in 2021 in what was a wild overtime finish with the Giants pulling off the 27-21 upset. Daniel Jones passed for 402 yards that day, his only 400-yard passing game in the NFL.
Many of the coaches and players have changed for these teams since then, but it would be nice if DeVito could let it rip more in this matchup like Jones unexpectedly did that day. But the Giants are also going to be content with him taking a conservative approach, getting the ball out quickly to avoid sacks like he did Monday night, and using his mobility to effectively gain yards on the ground and move the chains.
DeVito was taking sacks at a grotesque rate of over 20% this year behind that battered offensive line, but he did a great job of not taking a single sack against a Green Bay pass rush that had been hot the last month.
Sacks are definitely the main concern with DeVito, as he is completing 65.9% of his passes, he has 8 touchdowns to 3 interceptions, and his yards per pass attempt is 6.8 – these are all perfectly acceptable stats for an undrafted rookie quarterback.
The Saints only have 23 sacks this year, the same low total as the Giants. The pressure rate for the Saints is also unimpressive at 19.6%. This could be another clean game for DeVito as long as his decision-making is on point.
Giants: Turnovers and 3rd Downs
We talked about Carr’s struggles, and that has in effect led to mediocre offensive results for the Saints. In situational football, the Saints are only 19th on 3rd down and 22nd in the red zone at scoring touchdowns.
The Giants have not played great defense this year, but they are No. 4 on 3rd down, so they could have a good game at turning the Saints away on that money down and keeping the score down. The Giants have held 6 of their last 8 opponents to 22 points or fewer.
Takeaways can also be a great equalizer. The Giants may lack the sacks, but their blitz-happy ways are helping to create some chaos with takeaways. The Giants have 12 takeaways during this 3-game winning streak. They have done it on the road against decent offenses at times this year too, forcing multiple takeaways in Dallas (2), Buffalo (2), and Miami (3).
The Pick
The Giants may have started this season as an embarrassment, but you have to say that ever since Daniel Jones was injured and the team nearly upset Buffalo, Brian Daboll has them playing competitive football, and the DeVito story is a fun one.
The Saints continue to be a disappointment in their own right as they have not capitalized on an easy schedule, and Carr has not made the offense any better. We’ll trust the Giants to blitz him and win the turnover battle to set up another upset win this week.
NFL Pick: Giants ML (+205) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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