Top NFL Pick: Cooper Kupp Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Week 15 schedule is a good one with big games between the Cowboys-Bills and Ravens-Jaguars. We are also looking at Cooper Kupp trying to keep a touchdown streak going against the bottom-ranked defense, Joe Flacco cranking up the volume in Cleveland, and a revenge game for DeAndre Hopkins against Houston.
We have narrowed down our favorite player props for Week 15, which you can always find at top-rated offshore sportsbooks. Feel free to play the picks as singles or parlay your favorites.
Chicago Bears vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, December 17, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Cleveland Browns Stadium
Joe Flacco (Cleveland Browns)
It still feels weird to type “Cleveland Browns” with Joe Flacco, but the veteran has a 1-year contract with his latest team. He is also letting the ball rip with back-to-back games with over 250 yards and multiple touchdown passes, something Deshaun Watson has not done in 12 starts with the Browns.
But part of Flacco’s success is volume and a good scheme with talented receivers around him. He is not completing a high percentage of his passes, but Kevin Stefanski has allowed Flacco to attempt 44 and 45 throws in his 2 starts so far.
This is similar to last year with the Jets when Flacco started the season attempting 59, 44, and 52 passes in September. Flacco has attempted at least 39 passes in 6 of his last 7 starts in his career.
The Bears have shown some defensive spunk lately, and they have 11 takeaways in the last 3 games. A game with a lot of turnovers could be good for more pass attempts, especially if it means the Browns are in a tough game and need to throw.
The other thing to like is that the Bears are No. 3 in yards per carry and No. 2 in rushing yards allowed, so they have been tough to run on, imploring teams to pass.
The Pick
Flacco is a volume passer, and the Bears are a defense that funnels throws instead of runs. Count on the Browns to put the ball in the air and for Flacco to go over 34.5 attempts.
NFL Pick: Cooper Kupp Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+110) at Bovada
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, December 17, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Nissan Stadium
DeAndre Hopkins (Tennessee Titans)
Are the Titans back on track? That was an incredible comeback in Miami last week and Will Levis had his first 300-yard passing game. The key receiver was of course DeAndre Hopkins, who had 124 yards and a touchdown.
Hopkins has seen better seasons, but at 31, he has flashed with some huge games this year. Not only has he gone over 100 yards in 3 games, but he has cleared 57.5 yards in 8-of-13 games. He has done it in 5-of-7 games with Levis as his quarterback.
The Texans just allowed Zach Wilson of the Jets to pass for over 300 yards, so that secondary does not come into this one with much confidence. The Texans have received so much praise for C.J. Stroud and the passing game this year that we have overlooked the mediocrity of DeMeco Ryans’ defense.
The Pick
With how well the Titans played to end Monday night, they will hopefully carry over that momentum into this one and put on a good performance at home. Getting Hopkins over 57.5 yards against his former team in his first matchup with them as an AFC South foe would be a great way to achieve that.
NFL Pick: DeAndre Hopkins Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Washington Commanders vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, December 17, 2023 – 04:05 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
Cooper Kupp (Los Angeles Rams)
Injuries have knocked Cooper Kupp down a peg these last 2 years since his dominant run to Super Bowl MVP in 2021. But in the last few weeks, Kupp has looked healthy and like the Kupp we are used to seeing. He had 115 yards and a touchdown in Baltimore last week, and that is a top pass defense in 2023.
Welcome to the wonderful world of playing the Washington defense, which ranks dead last in points allowed. The Commanders have allowed a league-high 30 touchdown passes this year, and they have allowed 45 points in back-to-back games.
Washington has also allowed 20 touchdown passes to the wide receiver position. Only the Eagles (23) have allowed more, and no other defenses have allowed more than 15 scores to wideouts. Firing Jack Del Rio as defensive coordinator was not going to fix the lack of talent in the Washington defense.
The Pick
Matthew Stafford has been on a heater with 10 touchdown passes in his last 3 games, including back-to-back games with a touchdown to Kupp. We know Kupp can score from deep, but he is also a trusted red-zone weapon for Stafford too. With Stafford overwhelmingly favored to throw multiple touchdowns in this game, we like Kupp to snag at least one of them.
NFL Pick: Cooper Kupp Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+110) at Bovada
Dallas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, December 17, 2023 – 04:25 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)
Jalen Hurts is not the only quarterback who has become almost automatic at scoring rushing touchdowns. Josh Allen has a career-high 10 rushing scores this year, including a score in 9-of-11 games going into Sunday.
The Cowboys were able to keep Hurts and the Eagles out of the end zone entirely last week, but a big part of that was also due to the Eagles struggling to reach any goal-to-go situations, where the Brotherly Shove (Tush Push) becomes such a weapon.
Allen is a little different as he does not use the quarterback sneak, traditional or push style, to score most of his rushing touchdowns these days. He will take it off tackle and push his way into the end zone himself. Allen has 4 rushing touchdowns from 10 yards or longer this year. Only 3-of-10 rushing touchdowns for Allen have been inside the 5-yard line this year.
The Pick
With the kind of rushing weapon Allen is, do not be surprised if he does it again with a score in this matchup. The Cowboys have a very good defense, but they are only 22nd at allowing touchdowns in the red zone. We’ll count on Allen, who has 10-of-15 rushing touchdowns for the team this season.
NFL Pick: Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+130) at Bovada
Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, December 17, 2023 – 08:20 PM ET at EverBank Stadium
Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars)
If you had to pinpoint the real turning point for Jacksonville in 2022, it was the comeback win against Baltimore. Trevor Lawrence passed for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns while leading a game-winning drive. His 129.8 passer rating in that game is still the highest game of his career, and his 8.68 yards per attempt is still the 5th-highest game he’s ever had.
Lawrence can be a bit of a volume passer instead of someone very efficient, but volume is good for hitting overs too. So are game scripts where you can expect Jacksonville to either pass to catch up to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, or to compensate for what has been a struggling running game. Jacksonville ranks 30th in yards per carry this year.
Lawrence has passed for over 250 yards in 4 straight games. He has passed for over 228.5 yards in 8-of-13 games this year.
The Pick
The Ravens have a very good defense, but it has not played that many top quarterbacks this year. Lawrence is not thriving as hoped for, but he is better than most quarterbacks the Ravens have faced. He also has to have a big game for his offense to succeed here, and he could use what Matthew Stafford did in Baltimore last week for the Rams (294 yards) as a blueprint for how to attack this secondary.
We like the game script to force Lawrence to throw often and hit this over on Sunday night for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Trevor Lawrence Over 228.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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