The drought is mercifully over. No, we didn’t get a sweep last week, as the Ravens were responsible for our only miscue when they bowed to the Steelers as five-point home chalk that cost us 3.6 units. However, we did get an easy-peasy cover with the Seahawks, who walloped the rudderless Falcons, 37-9, for four units as seven-point road favorites, and the Jags (+2) scored us an effortless three units when they starched the Colts, 36-19.
So, we went 2-1 ATS and picked up 3.4 units. Yup, the drought is over, but why do I feel like a guy dying of thirst in the desert who finds an oasis of fresh water, and after taking his first lustful sip, he has a Larry David moment where he squints his eyes, purses his lips, and says, “Yeah, it’s good. But what? No Perrier?”
I should feel grateful that, at least for one week, I’m finally on the right side of the ledger, but this year has been so dreadful I need a series of sweep weeks just to get even. Well, as they say, baby steps, right?
So, with that, we trek boldly into Week 15, hoping for a sweep. If you want to check out BMR’s proprietary algorithm, this week’s best NFL picks are available as well.
Let’s get to our NFL picks for Week 15 and hope for the best.
Swinger’s 2025 NFL Record: 17-27 ATS (-49.00 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) @SwingeratBMR
NFL Picks Week 15 At-a-Glance
This week’s NFL picks will hopefully build upon the small bit of mojo we got last week when we covered two of our three selections. My NFL picks for Week 15 are predicated on looking equally at both sides and not manufacturing a case for one side or the other just because the early steam seems to be riding on one particular team or total.
The Cardinals, Seahawks, and Packers are my selections this week, and I’ve got a 5-unit MAX BET on one of them!
Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston Texans (-10)
Sunday, December 14 – 1:00 PM ET
Let’s put our hands together for the Houston Texans. They have not only won five straight but also put a dagger through the hearts of the Chiefs and their fans by defeating the perennial AFC West champs, 20-10, last week as 4 ½ point road dogs.
We should also note that Houston has covered four of those five winning efforts in games against the Jaguars, Bills, Colts, and Chiefs. They also defeated the Titans but did not cover the 5 ½ point impost in their 16-13 victory.
But here’s the thing. The Texans live and breathe by their suffocating defense. Houston’s offense hasn’t even averaged 20 points per game over its last four contests. And now they are laying double digits against a team that has shown some spunk with a career backup under center. Yes, the Cards were cleaned last week against the Rams, but the Texans’ offense does in no way, shape, or form resemble Matthew Stafford’s pass-happy attack.
You may be surprised to learn that while the Texans rank 16th in passing, averaging 216.5 yards per game, the Cardinals rank 7th in that category, averaging 238.7 yards per game.
The Texans have an outstanding defense, but their offense is nothing short of pedestrian, averaging just 21.7 PPG (20th). Let’s grab the 10 and watch the Arizona Cardinals hang and bang within the generous margins, so let’s go get that dough-re-me!
Expert Pick: Arizona Cardinals +10 (-110) for 3 units at Bovada
Indianapolis Colts vs. Seattle Seahawks (-13.5)
Sunday, December 14 – 4:25 PM ET
The Colts are cooked, and the Seahawks could be the NFC entry into the Super Bowl this season. Two teams, two polar opposite directions. It’s a huge line, as it should be, and the Colts don’t even have a third-string quarterback, which is why they’re trying out Phillip “Old Man” Rivers, who hasn’t thrown a ball in anger in five years and is 44 going on 90.
Daniel Jones is out, and likely his backup, Riley Leonard, with a PCL sprain. Sure, there’s an outside chance the former Notre Dame rookie could start. But if he does, who cares? He was serviceable in relief of Jones last week, but Indianapolis still got blown out by the Jags.
But now they’re playing arguably the No. 1 defense in the league and an offense led by Sam Darnold that will torch the 28th-ranked Colts secondary. Oh, and consider this fun fact. Indy will miss its two most important defensive players in DeForest Buckner and Sauce Gardner.
The Seahawks will win this one by 20, so if you find an alternate line around there, bet it and forget it. This is my second 5-unit MAX PLAY of the year.
Back the Seahawks on Sunday and lay the big number.
Expert Pick: Seattle Seahawks -13.5 (-108) for 5 units at Bookmaker
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos (+2)
Sunday, December 14 – 4:25 PM ET
Trust me when I tell you that it pains me to bet against the Broncos. My preseason futures have the Broncos over the season win total, winning the division, and even going to the Super Bowl. I loved the Broncos this season and am thrilled they are exceeding all expectations.
But the thing is, Denver doesn’t win by big margins, and they haven’t played a very stout schedule. Bo Nix is a notoriously slow starter, and when pitted against very good teams, they won’t be able to come back because good teams don’t allow their quarry to escape.
Over three of the past four weeks, the Broncos have defeated the lowly Raiders twice and the Commanders by an average margin of victory of 3.6 points. Now the Packers swagger into Mile High and will likely come out with a win because they will strike first and have a solid enough defense to keep the Broncos’ offense at bay.
This should be a defensive struggle, so a wager under the posted total may not be the worst thing you could do. However, let’s lay the deuce and bet on the Packers.
Expert Pick: Green Bay Packers -2 (-115) for 2 units at BetOnline
The Woodman’s Picks (10-4 ATS)
The Woodman used that age-old adage, “There’s nothing sweeter than a repeater,” when he went back to the well of the Chicago Bears two weeks straight. Unfortunately, the Bears were nipped in a photo finish last week when they lost to the Packers 27-20 and barely missed as 6 ½ point road dogs.
Hey, the man is still covering at over 71%, which is out of this world. So, save your pitchforks and lanterns for Your Truly because if anyone’s been doing you dirty this year, it’s little old me.
This week, Woodman is fading the public, eschewing conventional wisdom, and taking every one of those 13½ points that Bookmaker is giving him on the Tennessee Titans as they take on the 49ers in the Bay Area.
The Woodman’s Week 15 NFL Pick: Titans +13.5 (-110) at Bookmaker
Place your NFL Week 15 Bets Now
The NFL picks for Week 15 I posted today don’t stay stagnant forever. The odds, point spreads, and totals are dynamic, which means the point spreads you see written here on the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Packers games may not be around by gametime.
That’s why you must obtain the sharpest line available, so make sure your account is funded and ready to go!
Find the Best NFL Odds at Offshore Sportsbooks
To make the most of our NFL picks for Week 15, shop around for the sharpest lines available at the best offshore sportsbooks. Getting the best price can turn a loss into a win over the long season.
For this week’s top picks, take a look at the NFL odds at Bookmaker, Bovada, and Heritage Sports. Having access to multiple books ensures you’re getting the best possible number, and in this game, every half-point counts.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
