Top NFL Pick: Over 50.5 (-110) at BetAnySports (visit our BetAnySports Review)
The NFL’s Week 15 schedule has an excellent non-conference game between the Bills and Cowboys in Buffalo. We are also looking at an important NFC South matchup, and we wonder if the Chiefs are in trouble against the Patriots this week despite being a big favorite.
We studied the NFL computer predictions and picked out our top spreads or totals for your Week 15 bets at your favorite offshore sportsbooks.
Falcons Cannot Blow This Opportunity in Carolina
Once again, the NFC South race is a mess with 3 teams tied at 6-7 records with a quarter of the season to go. The only thing we know is Carolina is finished with a record of 1-12, so that is why Arthur Smith’s team cannot blow this opportunity to get back to .500 against the worst team in the league.
The Falcons are a 3-point road favorite with a total of 35 points. We are looking at the spread.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers
Sunday, December 17, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Bank of America Stadium
Atlanta’s Inconsistent Season
Arthur Smith has been coaching the Falcons since 2021 and he has yet to have a 3-game winning streak in any one season in that time. He had another shot last week against Tampa Bay to win a 3rd in a row, a key divisional home game, and he failed with the Buccaneers leading by as many as 9 points, then coming back on a late drive in a 29-25 win.
It was the 2nd time this season the Falcons allowed more than 28 points at home. The defense has been very good in situational football (3rd on 3rd down, 2nd in the red zone), but this was the 3rd time they blew a 4th-quarter lead this season.
Desmond Ridder passed for 347 yards after not breaking 168 yards in his previous 4 games. It was the first time in his career he lost a game after averaging better than 7.0 yards per pass attempt (5-1). Now he gets a Carolina defense he completed 15-of-18 passes against in Week 1, but he only threw for 115 yards that day as the Falcons leaned on the run.
Bryce Young’s Lack of Progress
Speaking of that Week 1 game between the Panthers and Falcons, it is alarming how little progress Bryce Young has made for the Panthers as the No. 1 pick in the draft. He lost that debut 24-10 after throwing a few interceptions, but we have seen more of the same from Young ever since.
Young ranks dead last in QBR, passing success rate, yards per pass attempt, yards per completion, and passer rating. He also has one of the highest sack rates in the league, and the Panthers are 30th in scoring at 15.2 points per game.
It’s just been a miserable season for the 1-12 Panthers, and it does not appear to be getting any better. Since the bye week, the Panthers have not scored more than 18 points in any of the last 7 games.
The Pick
Carolina has been so bad that it has not taken any snaps with a lead in the 4th quarter this year. The team’s only win came on a field goal on the final snap against Houston. The Falcons are 3-2 in games decided by fewer than 4 points this season, but they need to win this game by a more comfortable margin.
Atlanta’s only win by double digits this season was against the Panthers in Week 1, a 24-10 win in a game that was 10-10 in the 4th quarter. Hopefully, this game can also go smoothly, and the Falcons can sweep the 1-win Panthers.
Score Prediction: Falcons 22 – Panthers 17
NFL Pick: Falcons -3 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Belichick to Put the Clamps on Mahomes One Last Time?
It sure sounds like the Bill Belichick era in New England will end after this season is completed. Depending on what his next move is, this could be the last time we see him coach against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Some of Mahomes’ toughest battles have been with Belichick, but lately, everything is a battle for the Chiefs, who are 2-4 in their last 6 games.
The Chiefs are a 9.5-point road favorite with a total of 37.5 points. We are looking at that under.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, December 17, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Gillette Stadium
A History of Mahomes vs. Belichick
The Patriots and Chiefs have not met since the 2020 season, but Bill Belichick’s defense has had some impressive results against these elite offenses led by Patrick Mahomes even if the overall stats and scoring numbers still look favorable for Kansas City.
For example, in 3-of-4 meetings, Belichick held Mahomes out of the end zone in the 1st half, including a scoreless 1st half to the 2018 AFC Championship Game in Kansas City. The Chiefs scored 23 in their last trip to New England in 2019, and that included a 2nd half where they only scored a field goal. In the last meeting in 2020, the Chiefs scored 26 points with a pick-6 included, so the offense only had 19 that time.
Patrick Mahomes – Highest Bad Throw Rate in a Game, Career
- 2018 AFC Championship Game vs. Patriots – 31.0%
- 2019 Week 13 vs. Raiders – 29.6%
- 2020 Week 4 vs. Patriots – 28.6%
- 2018 Week 6 vs. Patriots – 27.8%
It’s probably not a coincidence that 3-of-4 games in Mahomes’ career with his highest rate of bad throws came against Belichick’s defense. Now it is a matchup where Mahomes has his weakest group of receivers by a wide margin, and Belichick will likely do what he can to swarm Travis Kelce and force the other receivers to beat them.
The Patriots have not allowed their last 5 opponents to top 20 points. Even the Chiefs have not topped 21 points in 5-of-6 games coming into this one, as the offensive struggles seem to be boiling over after last week’s loss to the Bills.
Bailey Zappe Unlikely to Crack Kansas City’s Defense
On the other side, the reason the Chiefs are still a considerable road favorite is that you cannot count on Bailey Zappe to light up this defense. The Chiefs have been giving up multiple touchdowns early in games in recent weeks to the Raiders, Packers, and Bills. Zappe was able to throw 3 touchdowns before halftime in Pittsburgh but notice that he didn’t score a point after halftime.
The Chiefs are usually good at adjusting after bad defensive starts. They are unlikely to start as poorly as Pittsburgh did against this offense that couldn’t break 10 points the previous 3 games.
It would be very surprising if New England had more than 16 points in this game, and even that is too high of a total.
The Pick
Gut was saying a 20-10 game, but when the computer score returned 22-12, that works too for the under. Look for Belichick to put forth a very respectable effort against Mahomes’ offense in this one, but like the previous 2 matchups, his offense is not going to score enough on the Chiefs for the win.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 22 – Patriots 12
NFL Pick: Under 37.5 (-110) at Everygame (visit our Everygame Review)
Dak Prescott or Josh Allen?
The Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills actually have a lot in common. They were the only teams to finish in the top 5 in both scoring offense and defense in 2022, and they are trending that way again this year. They both love to win games by huge margins and do not fare as well in tight contests. But hopefully, this will be a close game in the 4th quarter between a couple of contenders with a lot to play for.
The Bills are a 2.5-point home favorite with a total of 50.5 points. We are feeling the over with these quarterbacks.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, December 17, 2023 – 04:25 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
Prescott At His Peak
Dak Prescott would probably be the first to tell you that he didn’t play his best against the Eagles despite the 33-13 win last week. But that’s a sign of how well this team has been playing that scoring on 7-of-9 drives in a 20-point win against a main rival is disappointing.
Prescott would love to have that fumble returned for a touchdown back, and the Cowboys settled for a lot of long-field goals in that game. But they are still moving the ball very well and he added another 271 yards and 2 touchdown passes to his league-leading total of 28 touchdown passes.
The Cowboys are No. 1 on 3rd down, replacing the Bills who are No. 2 now. Both offenses know how to extend drives and finish them.
The Cowboys score a league-high 32.4 points per game, and they have had at least 33 points in 6-of-7 games going into Sunday. It is true that the Cowboys score considerably more points at home than on the road. But it is also true that their 2 road games against contenders ended with 52 and 51 points against the 49ers (42-10 loss) and Eagles (28-23 loss) this year.
Likewise, we have seen the Bills play in 48-20 and 37-34 games with the Dolphins and Eagles this year.
Bills Should Be Good for 24-Plus Points
Dallas has a great defense that gets takeaways, but a lot of the success has been schedule-based. You’re not playing the Patriots, Jets, or Giants when you face Josh Allen and the Bills in Buffalo.
We have already seen Dallas allow 42 points to the 49ers, 28 to the Eagles, 35 to the Seahawks, and even 28 to the Cardinals this year. The only really impressive job against a top offense was the 13 points allowed to Philadelphia last week, a divisional rematch where Philly’s offense failed to find the end zone even once.
But Allen has been playing well since the offensive coordinator (Ken Dorsey fired) change, and frankly, he was playing very well before that too. Dorsey became a bit of a scapegoat for the turnovers, some of which were situation-based, and some were just bad bounces and bad luck. The offense is still elite in the red zone (No. 2 at scoring touchdowns) and Allen is a weapon with 10 rushing touchdowns.
Stefon Diggs has been quiet this 2nd half of the season, but he is a receiver who could do damage in this matchup. Dalton Kincaid has come along very well as a rookie tight end. James Cook has been getting more touches in recent weeks and producing at running back. You always have to be mindful of Allen running with the ball.
The Bills know every game is crucial right now for their playoff hopes, and they know Dallas is a hot team they will have to find a way to outscore. The Bills need to think 24 points at a bare minimum in this one.
The Pick
Both teams are at their best when they blow you out by 20 points and make the 4th quarter irrelevant. Seeing the predicted score was amusing because a 1-point nail-biter is so not who the Bills and Cowboys are. But that would make for an amazing game to watch, so we hope it is in that ballpark.
But instead of banking on which team will have the best day, we think both offenses and quarterbacks are going to be respectable enough to get this game over 50.5 points for your NFL picks.
Score Prediction: Bills 27 – Cowboys 26
NFL Pick: Over 50.5 (-110) at BetAnySports
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