Top NFL Pick: Eagles -12 (-108) for 5 units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
After four consecutive winning Sundays, Swinger dropped 2 of 3 last week but vows to correct the market in Week 16 with a rare 5-unit MAX PLAY that will bury your bookmaker! Let’s go through this week’s NFL odds and see what are Swinger’s next moves at our main offshore sportsbooks.
- Swinger’s 2023 NFL Record: 22-24 ATS (-17.26 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
- @SwingeratBMR
Week 15 Recap
We hitched our wagon to an albatross last week when we backed the Packers over the Bucs as 3-point home chalk. In case you missed it, I tossed four units to the bad guys because I was unaware that Tampa’s Baker Mayfield had made a Faustian deal with the devil during the week, in return for a Bradyesque performance on Sunday.
Mayfield played like the No. 1 overall pick the Browns thought they were getting back in 2018, but his mercurial performances have turned him from a budding superstar to a well-traveled journeyman with stops in Cleveland, Carolina, LA, and now sunny Tampa Bay.
All Mayfield did was connect on 22-of-28 passes for 381 yards and four touchdowns, posting a perfect 158.3 passer rating. It was as if the Packers’ secondary locked eyes with Medusa every time Mayfield faded back to pass, as they turned to stone with every flick of the football.
We also dropped 2 units with the Jets as they were confounded against the Dolphins despite a rash of injuries that bit the Fish and plummeted the line six points. It- didn’t – mean – a – thing. Because, well, they’re the Jets.
Nevertheless, we did salvage some measure of self-respect by shopping for our lines early and picking out a dandy with Chicago +3 ½ over at Heritage on Wednesday. That line was long gone and impossible to find by kickoff but the early bird gets the worm, so for those who pushed in the Bears 20-17 loss to the Browns or, God forbid, took +2 ½, you have my condolences.
When the dust settled, we dropped nearly 4 units on the week as we continued to struggle to get even and cut our deficit. There are still three regular season weeks to go plus playoffs, so let’s not lose faith. We’ve got this.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, December 24, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Nissan Stadium
Key Stats
- Seattle is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against Tennessee.
- Seattle is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games played in December.
- Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against an NFC West opponent.
Seattle is coming off an upset win over the Eagles, courtesy of a final play drive engineered by backup, Drew Lock, who had his moment in the sun against an all too cautious Philly defense that was playing not to lose. When the dust settled, the Hawks emerged with a 20-17 victory, covering as 5-point home hounds.
Okay, so riddle me this. Do you think the Seahawks will be locked and loaded for a game against a last-place team like the Titans or do you believe they will still be reveling in their victory over an NFL powerhouse? If you choose the latter, welcome to the club.
Geno Smith will likely be back under center for Seattle in this matchup, but will he be 100%? Ah, no. And he will have the specter of Drew Lock looming over his shoulder after every pick he throws. The Titans, on the other hand, will have veteran Ryan Tannehill in the pocket replacing Will Levis, and don’t you think he’ll be itching to let loose?
Look, Tannehill is not Joe Flacco in his prime, but even Joe Flacco isn’t Joe Flacco in his prime, and we’ve seen what he’s done since being summoned from semi-retirement. However, he’s the prototypical game manager, ala Teddy Bridgewater without his modest wheels, and I suspect he will be as sharp as he can be given this opportunity.
I understand the reasons above are primarily based on touchy, feely, motivational angles, but Smith is still suffering from a groin injury, so he won’t be able to scramble, while Derrick Henry should be able to punish a porous Seattle run-stop unit.
Mike Vrabel is also 12-8 ATS as a home underdog so there’s that as well.
Grab the points with the Titans.
NFL Pick: Titans +3 (-120) for 3 units at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, December 24, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at Empower Field
Key Stats
- Denver is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against an AFC East opponent.
- Denver is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games played in Week 16.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England’s last 5 games played on a Sunday.
Being from Boston, I rarely bet for or against the Patriots because an intellectual judgment should not be colored by emotion. I heard that somewhere a long time ago, but it’s apt for this circumstance.
Nevertheless, I always make my own lines before I check out what the oddsmakers are dealing. My point spread was off on this matchup more than any other game on the Week 16 slate, as I made Denver a 3-point home favorite over the lackluster Patsies. The line, as of Wednesday, is Broncos -6 ½ and I’m digging it.
After all, why should they be 6 ½ point favorites over anyone? Denver is ranked dead last against the run, surrendering nearly 147 yards per game. Therefore, New England’s primary running back tandem with Rhamondre Stevenson (questionable) and Ezekiel Elliot should have a field day. Add to that the reemergence of tight end Hunter Henry being employed more often now that Bailey Zappe is pulling the trigger should see the Patriots getting at least 17-20 points.
BTW, have you noticed the Patriots offense has a little more zip with Zap?
The bottom line is, do you think the Broncos can score much more than that against a New England defense ranked No. 2 against the run and holding opponents to 21.4 points per game?
I don’t. Grab the points with the road dog here.
NFL Pick: Patriots +7 (-120) Buying Half Point for 4 units at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
N.Y. Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Monday, December 25, 2023 – 04:30 PM ET at Lincoln Financial Field
Key Stats
- NY Giants are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games played in December.
- NY Giants are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games against Philadelphia.
- NY Giants are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against an NFC East opponent.
I’ve confessed many times before that I’m a natural-born sucker for a big favorite but rarely bet them because chalky favorites are for…suckers! However, there are exceptions to every rule and this one is begging me to bet the downtrodden Eagles.
Just think about how brutal Philadelphia’s schedule has been recently. Over their last six games, they have played Dallas (28-23), Kansas City (21-17), Buffalo (37-24 OT), San Francisco (19-42), Dallas (13-33), and Seattle (17-20).
The best thing that could have happened was that the Eagles watched their 17-10 fourth-quarter lead melt like butter in a blast furnace last week. I highly doubt any Philly player or coach will be taking anything for granted coming into what should be a cakewalk against the Giants. New York is ranked 29th against the run, so expect D’Andre Swift to have a big game.
Once Swift establishes the run, it will allow Jalen Hurts more time in the pocket to target his twin terrors, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, which is how the Eagles cover this matchup’s imposing spread with ease.
Be a chalk-eater, have drinks with Joe Q. Public on Christmas Day, and embrace your square-as-a-microwave shape in this one. Eagles crush here.
NFL Pick: Eagles -12 (-108) for 5 units at Heritage Sports
The Woodman’s Corner (6-9 ATS)
If last week you did as our wizened NFL handicapper and financial strategist advised by betting the farm on the Cowboys +2 ½ over the Buffalo Bills, then I would urge you to seek shelter at the Woodman’s lean-to somewhere in the heart of Central Appalachia.
Yet, this fine fellow remains undaunted and vows to reemerge with a vim and vigor heretofore unseen in this quaint little hamlet of ours.
The previous sentence was an example of stream-of-consciousness writing, which would normally elicit a furrowed brow and a WTF expression from the writer before they quickly deleted it.
But no, that sentence is staying exactly where it is because, although bombastic and a bit antiquated, it crystalizes (much like meth) the way I feel about his resolve this week. Although there is no farm to bet, the Woodman says, Bet the Barn (that he no longer owns) on the Raiders!
Woodman’s Pick: Las Vegas +10 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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