Top NFL Pick: Brock Purdy Over 248.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Week 13 schedule has a must-see game between the 49ers and Eagles, a game that should have much more offense than last year’s title game where Brock Purdy was injured on his opening drive. We are also looking at some receiver props for the Steelers, Jets, and Broncos, and we ask Sam Howell again to keep throwing the ball like he has all season against Miami.
We have a handful of player props for Week 13, which you can always find at our top offshore sportsbooks. Feel free to play the picks as singles or parlay your favorites.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, December 03, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Acrisure Stadium
Diontae Johnson (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Whether or not he made a mistake, everyone saw the play last week where Diontae Johnson looked to have made no effort to block anyone or keep up with the live fumble in the red zone that the Bengals recovered. That was a snap after he dropped a touchdown in the end one, though it may have been ruled a score had coach Mike Tomlin challenged the play.
Johnson took a lot of heat for that drive, and understandably so as the Steelers trailed 7-3 at halftime in large part because of that drive. They did rally to win, and Johnson finished with 4 catches for 50 yards. He has gone over 47.5 yards in 5-of-7 games this year, and one would think there are going to be more opportunities going forward for him now that offensive coordinator Matt Canada is gone. Kenny Pickett just threw for the 2nd-most passing yards of his career last week with 278 yards.
Johnson should also feel motivated to silence the critics with a big game where he hits his over. He is still the best route runner the team has, and he usually gets the most targets. Last week it was a Pat Freiermuth game at tight end with 11 targets going his way, but we think Johnson will get a bigger share this week.
The Pick
The Arizona defense is another reason to like Johnson this week. Quarterbacks complete 70.2% of their passes against Arizona with 7.7 yards per attempt. There are usually many opportunities for production against this defense, and with the way the Steelers inconsistently use George Pickens and Freiermuth, Johnson is the most reliable target here.
NFL Pick: Diontae Johnson Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Jets
Sunday, December 03, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at MetLife Stadium
Garrett Wilson (New York Jets)
Garrett Wilson has put up with a lot of rough quarterback play in his short time with the Jets. Fortunately, he has shown he can deal with just about any situation. He even managed to catch a touchdown last week, along with 6 more catches with Tim Boyle at quarterback, but he only gained 44 yards.
The Jets didn’t let Boyle throw down the field at all. But maybe they will loosen things up a little more this week as Boyle makes his 2nd start. Despite being stuck in this offense, Wilson has gone over 51.5 yards in 7-of-11 games this year.
We have seen the Falcons allow some considerable passing numbers to unheralded quarterbacks like Will Levis (rookie in his NFL debut for the Titans), Joshua Dobbs (was just traded to Minnesota and came off the bench), and Kyler Murray (first game back in 11 months after torn ACL).
Maybe Boyle can be the next quarterback to light up the Falcons, but if he does anything positive, it is likely going to be through Wilson.
The Pick
The Falcons face the 9th-deepest passes on average at over 8.4 yards per target, so hopefully the Jets will try to get it down the field a little more this week. The volume of targets should be there for Wilson, but we need a big play to really make it easy for him to clear his over. He should get the job done as the Jets try to find a way to score 14 points for the first time since Week 6.
NFL Pick: Garrett Wilson Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, December 03, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at NRG Stadium
Courtland Sutton (Denver Broncos)
The Denver Broncos are on a 5-game winning streak and Courtland Sutton has certainly been warming up with 5 touchdowns over his last 6 games, including some impressive, timely catches.
But Denver has been relying a lot on short fields from turnovers produced by the defense, and the Texans rarely turn the ball over. Houston is also producing offense with C.J. Stroud, so this is a game where Russell Wilson needs to be better and get his main receiver involved more.
Last week, the Jaguars hit big plays on the Houston defense with Trevor Lawrence completing 4 passes of over 40 yards. Sutton has the big-play ability, but we are looking more for his targets and catches to be high enough in this game so that he easily clears his over.
The Pick
Sutton has only gone over 57.5 yards in 5-of-11 games this year, but this needs to be a game where he delivers. The Texans have made some improvements this year on defense, but it is still not a great unit. Last year, Sutton had 122 yards against Houston, his only 100-yard game with Wilson as his quarterback. Let’s hope that success repeats itself and he easily gets over 57.5 yards for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Courtland Sutton Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Bovada
Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders
Sunday, December 03, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at FedExField
Sam Howell (Washington Commanders)
The Commanders have yet to have a bye week, but it is still amusing to see Sam Howell lead the NFL in pass attempts (486), completions (323), passing yards (3,339), and sacks taken (55). He is also tied with Josh Allen for the league lead with 13 interceptions as the Commanders and their No. 32 scoring defense put a lot of responsibility on him week after week.
Washington is No. 1 in pass attempts and No. 30 in rush attempts, so offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has put a lot of faith in the young quarterback. The results have rarely been there this year, but Howell has a lot working against him, from his running game to his offensive line to his putrid defense.
Things do not expect to go well defensively in this game as the prolific Dolphins come to town with Tyreek Hill ready to destroy this secondary. Howell is going to have to throw to keep up with Tua Tagovailoa.
The Pick
Not only has Howell thrown over 38.5 passes in 9-of-12 games this season, but he has at least 42 passes in 6 straight games going into Sunday. If he does it again in this game, he’ll be the first quarterback in NFL history to throw at least 42 passes in 7 straight games in one season.
Howell is already 1-of-4 quarterbacks in history to do it in at least 6 straight games, joining Drew Bledsoe, Matthew Stafford, and Tom Brady.
Look for Miami to light up the scoreboard and get Howell into another passing fest with Tua and hit his over in attempts again. This is the most reliable part of Washington’s offense this year.
Throw it again, Sam.
NFL Pick: Sam Howell Over 38.5 Passing Attempts (-125) at Bovada
San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, December 03, 2023 – 04:25 PM ET at Lincoln Financial Field
Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers)
You can call this a revenge game after the Eagles ended Brock Purdy’s season in the NFC Championship Game after he injured his elbow on a hit by Haason Reddick on the opening drive for the 49ers. Purdy came back into the game after backup Josh Johnson left concussed, but Purdy’s elbow prevented him from being able to throw any real passes in the 31-7 loss, his first loss as a starter in the NFL.
But the game deserves a bit of an asterisk for Purdy as we just did not get a fair shot to see what he could do. We have seen him in 11 games this year and he is leading all quarterbacks in most efficiency metrics, including QBR, passer rating, success rate, yards per attempt, etc.
Purdy has thrown for over 250 yards in 7-of-11 games this year, so the volume has been there, and his weapons are healthy for this big matchup. The Eagles also are not as good defensively as they were last year, and teams have been abandoning the run to attack them through the air this year. This is not the 2022 Eagles with 70 sacks anymore.
You do not even have to be a great quarterback to throw for a lot of yards against the Eagles this year. Mac Jones of the Patriots had 316 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 1. Sam Howell turned into Steve Young in his 2 games against the Eagles. For the 5 games played in Philadelphia this year, 4 of the quarterbacks passed for over 290 yards.
The Pick
Choose your game script and it should lead to a big passing yardage day from Purdy. If the 49ers are dominant in a road win, it likely should come from a big passing day as they neglect the run a little against a strong run defense. If the Eagles are lighting them up, they have a quarterback who can throw now, and he should be able to answer with enough yards by the end of the game to hit his over.
Hopefully the game is a great one, but we’ll take our chances with Purdy lasting the full 60 minutes this time and moving the ball well for San Francisco.
NFL Pick: Brock Purdy Over 248.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
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