Last week we went 1-2, a familiar, yet disconsolate, refrain. Per usual, my favorites (Patriots, Seahawks) won but failed to cash, while my lone dog was the only small ray of sunshine when the Cowboys staged an epic rally to defeat the Eagles as three-point home hounds. Of course, my only winner was also my smallest wager (2 units).
That’s just the way it’s been going for me this season, but although the bad beats I’ve received are actually comical at this point, I will say I have been giving in to my chalky urges. In years past, I would at least try to make a strong case for an underdog or two if I felt I was betting too frequently on the favorites.
But, nope, not this year. I am square as a microwave and getting slaughtered just like all the other sheeple who bet favorites like they’re reading tomorrow’s newspapers. Well, that strategy is clearly getting us butchered at the betting windows, so let’s reverse course and try something new this week. Underdogs!
Let’s get to our NFL picks Week 13 and keep on truckin’.
Swinger’s 2025 NFL Record: 14-24 ATS (-45.30 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) @SwingeratBMR
NFL Picks Week 13 At-a-Glance
As stated, I need to make a concerted effort to consider underdogs because these favorites are winning but not covering the number. And because ATS is the name of the game, we are stuck big time as the season enters the home stretch.
This week’s NFL picks are going to include a heavy dose of dogs, but I will not exclude a juicy favorite if it speaks to me. For instance, the first selection in our NFL picks for Week 13 is a favorite, and it’s a biggie, my first MAX BET of the season!
Los Angeles Rams vs. Carolina Panthers (+10)
Sunday, November 30 – 1:00 PM ET
Matthew Stafford is getting tons of press as a clear-cut MVP candidate, and the Rams are one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl. It’s easy to get caught up in the hype; I get it. But when you’ve got a very good team facing an overachieving mess like the Carolina Cats, it’s time to pounce.
And that’s exactly what I’m doing here with my first maximum wager of the year. You see, the Panthers are coming off a 20-9 loss to the 49ers in which Brock Purdy was lousy. Can you imagine how this defense will fare against the glory that is Matt Stafford? Let’s also understand that Carolina is working on a short week after their Monday malaise.
Lastly, the Rams are terrific on both sides of the ball and have covered in five of their last six games. Bovada has one of the few -10’s available, while all the others are -10½ or higher. Hey, you go shopping for cars; why not NFL lines?
Let’s back the Rams and watch us cash our first 5-unit max bet.
Expert Pick: Rams -10 (-110) for 5 units at Bovada
New Orleans Saints vs. Miami Dolphins (-6)
Sunday, November 30 – 1:00 PM ET
My pappy always told me, ‘Don’t throw good money away on bad teams,’ but in the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is king. Fortunately for us, both the Saints and Dolphins are blind, which means this point spread is way out of whack. Miami is not even as good as their 4-7 record attests, so I’ll take the Little Sisters of Mercy or Louis Braille’s Sightless Brigade against the Fish as long as Miami is laying enough points.
These teams are mirror images of each other, although Miami’s tailback, David Archane, is a cut above. However, the one thing the Saints do well is stop the run, so I’m not concerned about the Dolphins’ perceived advantage on the ground.
Tua has shown flashes of brilliance, but he can also make some very unwise decisions when he’s under pressure. I believe we’ll see enough of that to allow New Orleans to keep this within the generous margins. Back the Saints on Sunday.
Expert Pick: Saints +6 (-108) for 3 units at Heritage Sports
New York Giants vs. New England Patriots (-7.5)
Monday, December 1 – 4:25 PM ET
This is a rare Monday night pick for me, but value is value, no matter where you find it. And right now, the hype train is on full blast regarding Drake Maye and the upstart Patriots. If you’ve been reading this column over the years, you know I don’t ordinarily bet on or against my hometown heroes, the New England Patriots.
However, I broke my rule last week by betting on them, and they won but failed to cover. And guess who’s returning to the poisonous well? Yours Truly! But this time I’m betting against them because the Giants can bring the heat, and the Pats are down their starting blindside tackle and guard, Will Campbell and Jared Wilson, respectively.
The Giants are a gritty group, and the kid, Jaxson Dart, looks like the real deal. Getting north of a touchdown against a team that is as decimated as New England looks like nothing but value to us! Back Big Blue and cash a ticket.
Expert Pick: New York Giants +7.5 (-115) for 4 units at Bovada
The Woodman’s Picks (9-3 ATS)
The Woodman eked out another cover with the Jets getting +13½ last week against the Ravens. Final Score: Ravens 23 – Jets 10. Why the hell can’t I get those breaks?
Well, if you’ve been riding his coattails, then you have covered in nine of a dozen games this season, and your wallet is full. This week, the Woodman is taking another hound, backing the Chicago Bears on Friday night.
The Woodman’s Week 13 NFL Pick: Bears +7 (-105) at Bookmaker
Place your NFL Week 13 Bets Now
The NFL picks for Week 13 I posted today don’t stay stagnant forever. The odds, point spreads, and totals are dynamic, which means the point spreads you see written here on the Rams, Saints, and Giants game may not be around by gametime.
That’s why it’s essential that you obtain the sharpest line available, so make sure your account is funded and ready to go!
Find the Best NFL Odds at Offshore Sportsbooks
To make the most of our NFL picks for Week 13, shop around for the sharpest lines available at the best offshore sportsbooks. Getting the best price can turn a loss into a win over the long season.
For this week’s top picks, take a look at the NFL odds at Bovada and Heritage Sports. Having access to multiple books ensures you’re getting the best possible number, and in this game, every half-point counts.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
