NFL Pick: Texans ML (+105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Houston Texans are about to play their biggest game since they were in the playoffs in the 2019 season. After breaking down our NFL odds, it seems like Houston can take the lead in the AFC South by completing a sweep of the Jacksonville Jaguars, as both teams would be 7-4 with Houston having the tiebreaker.
This has been made possible by the strong play from rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, who is not only a lock to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but he keeps gaining in the MVP race as well for how he has transformed this Houston offense so quickly.
The Texans already have an impressive 37-17 win over Jacksonville earlier this season, so this will be an even more important rematch now that real expectations are back on Houston.
The Jaguars are still a 1.5-point road favorite at the top-rated offshore sportsbooks, but we think Houston has a great chance to pull off the upset and move into 1st place.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, November 26, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at NRG Stadium
Week 3 Recap: Texans 37, Jaguars 17
If you want to talk upset, this Week 3 game was a big one as the Texans were a 9.5-point underdog in Jacksonville. We barely had an inkling at the time that Stroud would be this good already.
But the Texans jumped out to a 17-0 lead. Then, when it looked like the Jaguars were getting back into it at 17-10, the Texans returned a kickoff 85 yards for a touchdown. Stroud iced the game with a 68-yard touchdown pass to rookie Tank Dell, another young contributor we are quickly learning great things about.
Stroud finished that game 20-of-30 for 280 yards and 2 touchdowns. Houston won the turnover battle 2-0 that day. They were also a scorching 9-of-15 on 3rd down, which could easily regress to the mean in a rematch.
In fact, despite the 37-17 final, the special teams were a huge part of this game being so one-sided. Not only did the Texans have a kick return for a touchdown, but the Jaguars missed a field goal and had another one blocked early in the game.
Houston played very well, but the Jaguars should be game for this rematch in a tight game.
Trevor Lawrence’s Poor History vs. Texans
Every division rivalry has its own unique narrative. A lot of fans might be surprised to learn that the Texans have been dominating the Jaguars for years. Houston is 21-5 SU over the last 26 meetings dating back to the 2010 season.
You might recall the Jaguars having a very rough 2010s decade —outside of that 2017 season when they reached the AFC Championship Game. But since 2018, Houston is 10-1 against Jacksonville.
We know the Jaguars had a bad team in 2021 when Trevor Lawrence was drafted because the head coach was Urban Meyer, but it’s not like Houston didn’t have placeholders at head coach and quarterback as they waited to get past this messy Deshaun Watson era. They still swept the Jaguars in 2021 and split with them last season.
Overall, Lawrence is just 1-4 against Houston with 4 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in those games. He has been held under 7.0 yards per attempt in every loss.
Lawrence’s overall play this season has not been poor, but he also has not taken his game to a higher level with Calvin Ridley joining the offense as many expected. Ridley had a big game against the Titans last week, but he has been very quiet in many games this season.
Situationally, the Jaguars have been underwhelming on offense, ranked 24th on 3rd down and 28th in the red zone. Lawrence only has 11 touchdowns in 10 games. He had a 5-game span with 13 touchdown passes last year when he started his breakout run to the playoffs.
The problem for Lawrence is that, if you asked people right now which quarterback they’d rather have for the next decade, most would probably say Stroud. Shiny, new things like to dominate those debates, but this one has merit.
Stroud’s Impact Is Historic
We rarely ever see a rookie quarterback play as well as Stroud has. Sure, we’ve seen Ben Roethlisberger (2004 Steelers) and Dak Prescott (2016 Cowboys) win a lot with nice statistics on teams that had proven, veteran talent. But Stroud is carrying a team that is middle of the road on defense, has had multiple starting linemen injured, and the running game has ranked near the bottom in efficiency for most of the season.
Stroud has also made this wide receiver corps look excellent with his decision-making and accuracy. In fact, the Texans are the 1st offense in NFL history to have a trio of receivers with multiple 140-yard receiving games in the same season. That’s been done by Nico Collins, Noah Brown, and Tank Dell.
Collins is a breakout star, Brown was an afterthought from Dallas, and Dell is another rookie from the 3rd round this year. Stroud is making this work, and the running game has also started to pick up with Buffalo cast-off Devin Singletary posting huge numbers in the last few weeks.
Stroud is No. 2 in passing yards and No. 3 in yards per attempt (8.3). This is very impressive and historic for a rookie. Stroud has passed for at least 330 yards in 3 straight games, all wins, and he’s even overcome 6 turnovers in the last 2 games to still win. That’s important to deal with a Jacksonville defense that has been very opportunistic, though the 49ers and Texans are the only offenses that the Jaguars did not force a turnover against. What do they have in common? Same Kyle Shanahan-influenced system.
Earlier in the season, Stroud avoided turnovers at a historic rate for a rookie. Things are catching up to him on that front now, but his production is overcoming it. Houston’s defense also has multiple takeaways in back-to-back games, so it hasn’t been that bad of a margin for Houston to lose.
The Pick
Compared to Week 3, the Jaguars are going to see a Houston team that is more confident and may be peaking on offense right now with how well they are moving the ball. Stroud is playing better than Lawrence and he is at home, where he has thrown multiple touchdown passes in every game this year. The Jaguars struggled to get pressure on Stroud in Week 3.
The Jaguars have a little more big-game experience after getting a taste of the playoffs last year, but Houston looks poised to make their run right now. Jacksonville has played a lot of games this year where the scoring margin was in double digits, either in ugly losses or blowout wins, and the Texans have gained some crucial experience in executing in close games the last few weeks that they managed to still win every time.
Trust the Texans to be ready for this one, and Stroud can deliver the upset win and the biggest win for the Houston franchise since the 2019 season.
NFL Pick: Texans ML (+105) at Bovada
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