Top NFL Pick: Vikings -3.5 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Week 12 schedule has an interesting Sunday night game between the Baltimore Ravens, the new No. 1 seed in the AFC, and the Los Angeles Chargers. The long week of football concludes Monday night when the Vikings try to start another winning streak against the Chicago Bears.
We have our top NFL picks for each night of prime-time games in Week 12, which you can always find at the best offshore sportsbooks.
Justin Fields or Joshua Dobbs?
The Minnesota Vikings lost a tough one, 21-20 in Denver, last Sunday night. It ended a 5-game winning streak that has put the team back in the playoff mix even after losing quarterback Kirk Cousins and No. 1 wide receiver Justin Jefferson to injury.
Joshua Dobbs has done a good job in making fans forget about Cousins, and Jefferson could even return from injured reserve to play in this game. They’ll get a chance to sweep a Chicago team that may have just had the worst blown lead of the season with a 12-point comeback allowed in Detroit this past Sunday.
The Vikings are a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 43 points. Can the Vikings put the Bears away without a hitch this week?
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
Monday, November 27, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium
Comeback Regression Isn’t for Everyone
The Vikings were expected to decline this year, and while the team has already matched last year’s loss total, the Vikings are still in a position to make the playoffs with a winning record.
But it is true that the close games have not been as kind to Minnesota this year. The Vikings were 11-0 in close games in the 4th quarter in the 2022 regular season. But they are only 5-5 this year in the same games with a few blown leads now.
But not every team has regressed to the mean in close games. For example, the Chicago Bears are still dreadful in close games, blowing another big lead to Detroit last week. The Bears are just 1-5 in close games this year.
The Bears had a chance to salvage the Detroit game, but Justin Fields was immediately stripped of the ball on a sack by Aidan Hutchinson to produce a safety in the 31-26 loss. Fields is now 1-14 (.067) at 4th quarter comeback opportunities in his career, one of the worst records in NFL history. Things haven’t gotten any better for Chicago in this area.
If the game is close again, you can probably count on the Vikings to have a decisive edge there, even with Dobbs at quarterback. Dobbs led a comeback win off the bench in his team debut against Atlanta.
Week 6 Recap: Vikings 19, Bears 13
These teams already met in Chicago back in Week 6. The Bears had Fields at quarterback before he was knocked out with an injury and replaced by rookie Tyson Bagent, who was not able to make the comeback as Chicago lost 19-13. Bagent was stripped of the ball and it was returned for a touchdown in that game.
But Fields was awful in that game too before he was hurt, completing 6-of-10 passes for 58 yards, throwing an interception, and he was sacked 4 times. The Vikings really got after him.
Fields returned last week against Detroit and had one of his better games with 104 yards on the ground and 169 passing yards. But when the game got tight, he again failed to finish.
The Pick
If Jefferson returns, then that’s nice for Minnesota. But Dobbs has already looked comfortable running the offense with T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison leading the way. The Vikings already beat the Bears on the road this year in a game where Cousins only led his offense to 12 points, so Dobbs should be up to the task this week.
Chicago has been more competitive in recent weeks after an awful 0-3 start to the season. But the Vikings have the better team, the better coaching, and you could say the better quarterback in this matchup. We’ll trust Minnesota to deliver and start a new winning streak for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Vikings -3.5 (-105) at Bovada
Ravens vs. Chargers: Blown Lead or Blowout?
The Baltimore Ravens (8-3) completed a sweep of the Bengals in a game that saw Joe Burrow lost for the season with a wrist injury. The Ravens did not go unscathed either with tight end Mark Andrews suffering what is likely going to be a season-ending injury unless the Ravens could go the distance in the playoffs. They are the current No. 1 seed with the best record in the conference. They will look forward to a bye week after this game.
The Los Angeles Chargers (4-6) lost a heartbreaker to the Packers to fall further in the playoff standings. Justin Herbert had one of the finest games of his career, but the stat sheet is missing several more touchdowns after crucial drops from his receivers. The Chargers also blew their 3rd lead in the 4th quarter this season, though the Ravens know all about that.
In fact, the Ravens and Chargers are tied with the Bills and Packers for the most blown leads in the 4th quarter this season with 3 each. Could we see some more shenanigans in this game, or will it be a blowout like the last time these teams met, won 34-6 by the Ravens in 2021?
The Ravens are a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 47 points. We have the rare prime-time over in mind.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, November 26, 2023 – 08:20 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
Why the Ravens Could Keep Scoring
Losing Mark Andrews is a real disappointment for the Ravens, because he is their best overall target in the passing game. But that happened on the first drive of the last game and the Ravens still scored 34 points against a respectable Cincinnati team.
The Ravens have scored at least 31 points in 5 straight games, and that is why Lamar Jackson has moved up in the MVP race. Over the last 5 games, Jackson has completed 69% of his passes with a 109.6 passer rating and 9.2 yards per pass attempt. Those numbers are on par or better than what he had in 2019 when he won MVP.
Jackson still has some solid targets without Andrews, including rookie wideout Zay Flowers, who the Chargers probably wish they drafted over Quentin Johnston, who dropped a huge pass in last week’s loss to the Packers.
Jackson should be salivating at playing a Chargers defense that allows a league-worst 316.3 passing yards per game. Jordan Love of the Packers just had his first 300-yard passing game in the NFL against these Chargers last week, and the Chargers will likely lose Joey Bosa for some time with a foot injury suffered on Sunday.
Even if Baltimore’s streak of 31-point games ends here, it was earlier this season that we saw this team score 27 and 28 points on the road against the Browns and Bengals, who have better defenses than the Chargers. The Chargers have already been lit up at home this season by the Dolphins (36 points) and Lions (41 points) in the most thrilling shootouts of the year so far.
Chargers Still Have a Chance
The Chargers will be 4-7 if they lose this game, but they always have a chance with Justin Herbert at quarterback. Sunday was the 3rd time this season he led a go-ahead touchdown drive in the 4th quarter only to see the Chargers give it right back and lose the game.
Herbert is having a very fine season with the injuries around him, and it is not shining through with the record. The Chargers have only turned the ball over 8 times this season, tied with Pittsburgh for the fewest giveaways in 2023. The Chargers have scored at least 17 points in every game, so even a 31-17 game would hit the over here with Baltimore on this scoring streak.
But the Chargers have what it takes to score on this No. 2 scoring defense that has surrendered 4 games with more than 21 points allowed this year. The Chargers still have Keenan Allen, and while he dropped a few big ones last week, he is a great No. 1 receiver. They also have Austin Ekeler at running back, and there were so many plays that the offense was close to cashing in against Green Bay only to see them drop the ball.
It’s always something self-inflicted with this team, which is why the Chargers are just 4-6 despite some more than solid offensive statistics.
The Pick
The Ravens can relate to dropping balls in excruciating fashion. They lost a 17-10 game in Pittsburgh earlier this season when they kept dropping the ball. It happens in this league. Baltimore came back from that and won a game with 24 points, then started this streak of scoring 31 every week.
Even if neither team reaches 30 points, this is one of the best matchups all season in prime time for offensive teams. We are not going to be stuck watching the Giants, Jets, or Bears this time. We’ll trust the quarterbacks here and take the over.
NFL Pick: Over 47 (-105) at Bovada
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