The good news is that my top play from last week (Buffalo -5 for 4 units) cashed, but the bad news is that my other two selections, Vikings and Ravens, did not, costing three units apiece. When the dust settled on another losing Sunday, I dropped 2.54 units, and our fruitless handicapping endeavors show us nearly 40 units in the red this season.
If you’ve been reading this column over the years, you know that this season is an aberration, but we’ve still got more time left on the clock. If you want to check out BMR’s proprietary algorithm, this week’s best NFL picks are available as well.
Let’s get to our NFL picks week 12 and keep on truckin’.
Swinger’s 2025 NFL Record: 12-22 ATS (-39.74 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) @SwingeratBMR
NFL Picks Week 12 At-a-Glance
I don’t mention it often because no one wants to hear excuses or inane ramblings about bad beats, but we have had more than our fair share of them this season and very few, if any, bounces that have gone our way. I’ve been in this game for a long time, and I know that eventually, bad beats become fortunate covers, which is why I am not losing hope despite my abysmally poor record.
This week’s NFL picks are focused on tuning out the white noise. Looking at things the same way that has worked in the past, but has been so absent this season. As stated, eventually this ship will find much calmer waters than the typhoon that has engulfed us this year.
For better or worse, below are our NFL picks for Week 12, and the good news is – we’re due!
New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+8)
Sunday, November 23 – 1:00 PM ET
I’m from the Boston area, and I rarely bet on or against the Patriots. I’m too close to the action, and I don’t see things objectively when it comes to my hometown team. But I believe this is an ideal spot for them to trounce the opposition.
Forget what your preconceived notions are for the Bengals. When Burrow and everyone are healthy, they have an electric offense and a subpar defense. But with Burrow out, Ja’Marr Chase suspended, and Joe Flacco looking like a frightened old man in the pocket who completed just 57% of his passes last week because he can’t wait to unload for fear of getting decked by oncoming traffic, the Bengals are the Bungles of old.
On the flip side of the ball, Cincinnati’s best defensive player, Trey Hendrickson, is doubtful, so how will the Bengals generate any pressure on Wonder Boy, Drake Maye? The Pats should have an easy day of it, whether they’re running or passing, and although I am loath to lay north of a touchdown on the road, sometimes you gotta do what’cha gotta do.
Let’s back the Patriots to rock the Bengals in the Queen City and roll out with a double-digit win.
Expert Pick: New England Patriots -8 (-108) for 3 units at Heritage Sports
Seattle Seahawks vs. Tennessee Titans (+13)
Sunday, November 23 – 1:00 PM ET
Just when you thought I couldn’t get any chalkier, come the Seattle Seahawks, laying 13 on the road. Welcome to Squaresville, where anyone with a head not shaped like a microwave is persona non grata.
Had the Seahawks not looked so bad last week in their narrow loss to the Rams, a game in which Sam Darnold tossed four picks, this line would be even higher than the 13-13½ points the books are dealing on Seattle.
But here’s the deal. The Titans own a woeful defense, and they won’t be bringing the same kind of heat that the Rams brought last week. Tennessee is also dead last in rushing yards, total offensive yardage, and points scored (14.3 PPG). Want more? Sure, why not!
The Titans are No. 30 in passing under rookie Cam Ward, and they allow more sacks than anyone else in the league. And that may pose a bit of a problem, considering the Seahawks are ranked No. 4 in sacking the quarterback. Seattle will be locked and loaded after suffering a loss last week, which makes this an even better spot to bet on them.
This has all the makings of a good old-fashioned rout, so welcome to Squaresville, where you’ll lay double digits on the road and you’ll be happy to do it. Back the Seahawks.
Expert Pick: Seattle Seahawks -13 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys (+3.5)
Sunday, November 23 – 4:25 PM ET
This last of my NFL picks revolves around a divisional clash of ancient NFC East rivals, the Eagles and the Cowboys. This feels like a game that should be on Thanksgiving, but fortunately, we’ll get it a week earlier. The oddsmakers are giving the home team north of a touchdown, and for what feels like an eternity, I am finally picking an underdog.
I know the Eagles are a good team, but let’s not forget that last year they were Super Bowl champs, and although they defeated the Cowboys in the City of Brotherly Love, it was indeed Dallas that got the cover as 8-point road dogs in a 24-20 loss.
Yes, Philly has won and covered in their last four contests while the Cowboys are 2-2 SU and ATS over that span. But Dallas has bolstered its defense with the additions of Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson, while the Eagles will be without the services of All-Pro offensive tackle Lane Johnson.
I see this shaping up as a defensive battle with Dallas hanging within the margins or, perhaps, pulling a mild upset. I’m going to be measured when betting this, as it’s not inconceivable Dallas could still be reading their own press clippings after their 33-16 road win over the Raiders last week, but they’re worth a few units.
Expert Pick: Dallas Cowboys +3.5 (-118) for 2 units at Heritage Sports
The Woodman’s Picks (8-3 ATS)
In a battle of handicapping wits last week, I came unarmed in backing the Ravens while the Woodman was equipped with a bazooka and blasted his way to another winning week with Baltimore’s opponents, the Cleveland Browns +8½.
As we all know by now, the Ravens won the game 23-16, which was not quite enough for the 7 ½ I laid but well within range of the +8 ½ that the Woodman plucked at another shop. It was almost a perfect middle, but alas, it fell short. However, it does pay to shop around, so make sure you’re a savvy bettor and have multiple outs.
This week, the Woodman is taking the biggest dog on the board and telling everyone who will listen to bet the farm on the Jets!
The Woodman’s Week 12 NFL Pick: Jets +13½ (-112) at Bookmaker
Place your NFL Week 11 Bets Now
The NFL picks for Week 12 I posted today don’t stay stagnant forever. The odds, point spreads, and totals are dynamic, which means the point spreads you see written here on the Patriots, Seahawks, and Cowboys game may not be around by gametime.
That’s why it’s essential that you obtain the sharpest line available, so make sure your account is funded and ready to go!
Where to Find the Best NFL Odds
To make the most of our NFL picks for Week 12, shop around for the sharpest lines available at the best offshore sportsbooks. Getting the best price can turn a loss into a win over the long season.
For this week’s top picks, take a look at the NFL odds at Bookmaker and Heritage Sports. Having access to multiple books ensures you’re getting the best possible number, and in this game, every half-point counts.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
