The NFL’s Week 11 schedule has an incredible Monday night game between the Chiefs and Eagles, and you may be surprised that our favorite prop pick involves a win for the defense. We also have picks for games like Cardinals-Texans, Bears-Lions, and we are welcoming the return of rookie De’Von Achane to the backfield in Miami.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, November 19, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at NRG Stadium
Marquise Brown (Arizona Cardinals)
Hollywood Brown has been rather quiet in the last 3 games with an average of 28.3 yards per game. It does not appear to be injury related as he is still playing anywhere from 90% to 100% of the offensive snaps in this game.
It more likely is quarterback and opponent related. Brown caught a touchdown against the Ravens, his old team, but that was generally a rough game for Arizona’s offense against the No. 1 scoring defense.
Brown was stuck with rookie Clayton Tune as his quarterback in Cleveland, and that was predictably a 27-0 loss where Brown caught 4-of-8 targets for 24 yards.
Brown did get Kyler Murray back last week, but with Murray not playing in 11 months, it made sense that there would be some hiccups early. Brown caught 1-of-4 targets for 28 yards.
But if you go back to last year when Brown joined the team, he had 43 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, then went on a hot streak with Murray where he averaged 88.4 yards per game over the next 5 games before he was injured. By the time he came back, Murray was injured too 5 quarters later against the Patriots, so it has been some time since we’ve seen this duo together and healthy.
Houston has been playing in shootouts the last couple of weeks, and this game has the potential to be a fun one where both quarterbacks play well and the teams both score in the 20s or higher.
Brown is a big-play threat, and you should count on Murray to get him the ball more this week. We’ll take the over and hope it looks like the Houston games of the last 2 weeks, and that Brown and Murray look like the duo that started 2022 together in Arizona.
NFL Pick: Marquise Brown Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, November 19, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Ford Field
Sam LaPorta (Detroit Lions)
In a season where offense has looked so difficult for so many teams, the Lions are very much appreciated. Sure, they bombed 38-6 in Baltimore in Week 7, but even that week we had Jahmyr Gibbs scoring his 1st NFL touchdown, which he did.
The Lions have scored at least 20 points in every other game this season, and last week against the Chargers, they looked as good as ever with 41 points and a season-high 533 yards of offense. The Lions even started to figure out how to use David Montgomery and rookie Gibbs together in the backfield.
A lot of people will want to play Montgomery for a touchdown scorer against his former team from Chicago, and that should be a fine play too. Montgomery has scored in every game he’s finished healthy this year.
But for a good value pick, we like tight end Sam LaPorta. He had a quiet start to last week’s game after the 2 running backs and Amon-Ra St. Brown exploded, but the Chargers are uniquely bad against wideouts and usually against the run under Brandon Staley. We think the tight end has a good shot to be a featured target this week against a Chicago defense that is actually very solid against the run.
LaPorta has scored a touchdown in 3-of-4 home games this year. All of his touchdowns have been at home where Jared Goff is usually better at throwing them than he is on the road.
After backup tight end Brock Wright scored a late touchdown last week, and St. Brown scored a rare receiving touchdown on a screen, this could be LaPorta’s big week. Maybe the Lions use play-action with everyone expecting Montgomery to get a short touchdown and LaPorta is there wide open for the easy score.
We’ll confidently back him in this matchup as Detroit should visit the end zone several times against the Bears, a team they beat 41-10 at home last season.
NFL Pick: Sam LaPorta Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+185) at Bovada
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, November 19, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
De’Von Achane (Miami Dolphins)
Just when we were getting excited to talk about the historic start to De’Von Achane’s career, he was put on injured reserve with a knee injury. It seemed to have a negative impact on Miami’s offense too as they missed his explosive plays.
Before he was injured, Achane had a 3-game run for the ages:
- Week 3 vs. Denver: 18 carries, 203 yards, 4 catches, 30 yards, 4 total TDs (2 rushing, 2 receiving)
- Week 4 at Buffalo: 8 carries, 101 yards, 2 TDs, 3 catches, 19 yards
- Week 5 vs. Giants: 11 carries, 151 yards, TD, 1 catch, 14 yards
That’s 3 straight games where Achane averaged at least 11.3 yards per carry with at least 8 carries in each game – this has never been done before in NFL history. If not for his injury, Achane might be rewriting the record books as we speak. He still can this year if he has this kind of production the rest of the way.
Achane is an instant offense and a perfect draft pick for the speed demons in Miami. Achane has had a 55-yard run in each of his last 3 games. When people say he can score on any play, they are usually being facetious, but this may actually be the case with Achane. We’ll take him to do it again and give everyone a reminder of how great he was doing before his injury.
NFL Pick: De’Von Achane Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-112) at Bovada
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, November 19, 2023 – 04:25 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
Stefon Diggs (Buffalo Bills)
Last Monday night, the Buffalo Bills lost to Denver to fall to 5-5, and someone had to fall on the sword for it. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was the sacrificial lamb, but was he really the problem? He didn’t fumble multiple times or drop a pass that turned into an interception, which were how 3-of-4 turnovers happened for the Bills against Denver. All told, the Buffalo offense has been decent this year in a season where not many offenses are thriving.
Another headache the Bills didn’t need this week was Cowboys corner Trevon Diggs, Stefon Diggs’ brother, posting to social media that he needs to get out of Buffalo after he only had 3 catches for 34 yards, by far his season lows, in the loss.
Diggs was even reached for comment on his brother’s thoughts, and all he could essentially say is he is not his brother’s keeper. People will react how they will, and the Bills just have to go back to work and get this thing moving in the right direction.
Getting some revenge on the Jets for the Week 1 loss would be a good start this week. You might be nervous about a new offensive coordinator taking over, but Joe Brady knows the offense, he was Buffalo’s quarterbacks coach last year, and he served as offensive coordinator for the Carolina Panthers in 2020-21.
Getting the ball more to Diggs would be a good start for this offense.
You might think Diggs is a bad choice against a tough Jets defense with Sauce Gardner at corner, because what if Josh Allen turns the ball over a bunch of times again? Well, in Week 1, the Jets were a great defense with Gardner, Allen turned the ball over 4 times, and Diggs still had 10 catches for 102 yards and a touchdown. He is a great receiver who moves around the formation to get open in a variety of ways. The Bills must get back to that.
We think they will, and instead of toying with a touchdown or receptions prop, we’ll just go with Diggs hitting the over in yards for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Stefon Diggs Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Monday, November 20, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles)
You probably thought we’d go with the Jalen Hurts rushing touchdown prop since he’s scored in 6-of-8 games going into Monday night, and he scored 3 rushing touchdowns against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl loss.
By all accounts, Hurts had one of the best Super Bowl performances ever by a quarterback. He threw for 304 yards, and a touchdown, and was not intercepted while rushing for 70 yards and 3 scores. But it was that 2nd-quarter fumble, an unforced error, that will haunt him as the Chiefs returned it for a huge touchdown. That was Hurts’ fatal flaw in the game, and his defense didn’t get him the ball back with enough time for one last shot at redemption.
But this year, the Chiefs are playing much better defense, and Hurts is throwing more picks. He has already been intercepted 8 times after throwing 6 picks all of last year (playoffs included). Hurts has been picked 3 times on the road against the Jets and twice in Tampa Bay this year.
His interception rate is 2.6%, which is just under the 2.7% he had as a rookie in 2020 when he was just trying to learn the game.
The Chiefs have forced a takeaway in every game this season, but they have forced just 5 interceptions compared to recovering 8 fumbles (2nd most in NFL). They could use some more picks to really put that defense over the top.
This is a gut pick, but it’s also a reflection of where these teams have changed from last year’s Super Bowl. The Chiefs are doing much better defensively, and the Eagles are less consistent with rushing and rely more on A.J. Brown than ever. Tight end Dallas Goedert is also out after surgery, so the Chiefs should know the ball is likely going to Brown or DeVonta Smith. The Eagles have not developed many other options in this offense.
Throw in the playoff atmosphere, one of the loudest crowds in the game, and a great pass rush, and the story this time should not be a fumble by Hurts in the 2nd quarter. We think it will be an interception that helps swing this game to the 3-point home favorite.
NFL Pick: Jalen Hurts Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-105) at Bovada
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