NFL Week 10 Player Props went 1-2, bringing the season record to 12-1-17 for (-4.4 units) overall. Here’s a quick look at what worked, what didn’t, and how we’re approaching NFL player props week 11.
Amon-Ra St. Brown was our lone bright spot, cashing in a Detroit Lions touchdown at -105. Meanwhile, Harold Fannin Jr. looked poised to go over his 32.5-yard line early, hitting 32 by the third quarter, but he never added another catch. Jaxson Dart, our third pick, cleared his passing-yard total with ease despite poor weather conditions in Chicago.
As we turn the page to Week 11, we’re factoring in key external conditions such as heavy weather forecasts and evolving quarterback-receiver chemistry.
NFL Prop Bets Week 11 At-a-Glance
Our first NFL Week 11 prop bet targets Atlanta’s top receiver, thriving with his newcomer quarterback.
The next two bets are influenced by forecasted poor weather in Pittsburgh and Buffalo, which is expected to lower point totals and change scoring probabilities this Sunday.
Falcons’ Drake London (Over 73.5 Receiving Yards -110) at BetOnline
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons – November 16, 1:00 PM ET
Despite Carolina’s solid pass defense, Drake London‘s yardage line seems low and an appealing spot for our opening bet.
London has topped 100 yards in four of five games, showing strong chemistry with Michael Penix Jr, but also illustrating how the relationship is growing as the season progresses.
Though some pundits say London is elevating Penix, their developing partnership is still in the initial stages, and both players should be given a little more time before such assertions may prove premature.
Check out other player props for this game and find the best value on Week 11!
Steelers’ Aaron Rodgers (Over 231.5 Passing Yards -110) at Bovada
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – November 16, 1:00 PM ET
The expected adverse weather conditions in Pittsburgh are pushing the betting totals lower, as poor weather typically limits offensive output at Acrisure Stadium.
The Bengals are typically involved in high-scoring games, with their many defensive issues and injuries, but the total is dropping so far this week. As the lines drop, a key strategy to make a profit is to focus on overs that have gone too low and attack the over.
Aaron Rodgers opened at 240 yards and dropped approximately 10 yards, factoring in a poor game versus the Chargers, along with the weather. The elite quarterback showed his advancing years when appearing reluctant in rushing spots.
Rodgers’ passing yards are now at a buy-low spot; take the overs at Bovada.
Buccaneers’ Tez Johnson (Anytime Touchdown +300) at Heritage Sports
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills – November 16, 1:00 PM ET
There seems to be a burgeoning understanding between Baker Mayfield and his rookie wide receiver, Tez Johnson, with four touchdowns in his last five games.
With the nasty weather forecast in Buffalo this week, touchdowns will be at a premium, but the easily available and inflated price of +300 on Tez Johnson scoring compensates for the chance that the weather lowers the expected points.
Another factor in our favor for a receiving touchdown for Johnson is the lack of rushing attempts in recent games from his quarterback, Baker Mayfield.
With Mayfield playing hurt, Johnson should see solid work and red-zone chances to add to his recent tally of touchdowns.
Week 10 Player Props: Key Takeaways
The weather could be the defining factor for NFL player props week, especially in Pittsburgh and Buffalo, where poor conditions may drive totals down and shift prop values. Our selections reflect those forecasts, while Drake London’s chemistry with Michael Penix Jr. offers upside in a more controlled environment.
Make sure you have an active account at a top sportsbook while reviewing injury updates, weather forecasts, and line changes before betting. And explore our NFL player props page for more value picks.
Place Your Bets at The Best Offshore Sportsbooks
Always shop around for the best prices on NFL odds using trusted offshore sportsbooks like Bovada, BetOnline, and Heritage Sports. Getting the best line can be the difference between a win and a loss for this week’s NFL player props.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
