Top NFL Pick: Browns -4 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The NFL’s Week 11 schedule has some divisional rematches, including Steelers-Browns and Giants-Commanders with the home teams looking to get a split for the season after losing the first matchups. We also are looking at the 49ers hosting a Tampa Bay team that Brock Purdy made his first NFL start against last year.
We analyzed the NFL computer predictions at Bookmakers Review and picked out our top spreads or totals for your Week 11 bets at your favorite offshore sportsbooks.
Giants Will Rely on Defense Again
The New York Giants (2-8) have a lot of statistics that make them look like the worst team in the NFL this year, but that is mostly on offense. The defense has been poor too, but it was the unit that powered the Giants to an ugly 14-7 win over Washington in Week 7.
The Giants won 20-12 in Washington last season too, and that was weeks after the teams played a 20-20 tie. Washington has struggled to score and beat this team in recent years under coach Ron Rivera.
The Commanders are a 10-point home favorite with a total of 37.5 points. Is this a week the Giants keep it close again?
New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders
Sunday, November 19, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at FedExField
Week 7 Recap: Giants 14, Commanders 7
If you want to watch an ugly game from 2023, you could pick this one that featured 21 total points on 27 drives between the teams. The Commanders ended up punting 10 times and their only touchdown drive was just 21 yards because of a fumbled punt return by the Giants.
The Giants got after Sam Howell with 6 sacks, which has been a problem this year for the young Washington quarterback. He has only taken 7 sacks in the 3 games since the New York loss, but there are other advanced stats in that game that suggest the Giants have a strong read on this offense:
- Howell’s 18.8% first down rate on his passes is a season low.
- Howell faced 27 blitzes, which is almost double that of his high in any other game this season.
- The 28.6% pressure rate against Howell was his 3rd-highest game this season according to Pro Football Reference.
- Despite all the pressures faced, Howell only scrambled 1 time for 11 yards.
The Giants did a good job of forcing Howell to throw the ball deep to no avail. The Washington offense works better when Howell is getting the ball out quickly and for good YAC, but the Commanders did not have a good day beating the blitz in Week 7.
Can Tommy DeVito Deliver?
The Giants started Tyrod Taylor in Week 7 against Washington. He is probably the best quarterback on their roster, even better than Daniel Jones, but both veterans are injured. That just leaves rookie Tommy DeVito, who had some trial by fire in having to start against Dallas as a 17.5-point underdog last week.
It did not go well. Dallas was up 20-1 in first downs at one point while it took DeVito into the 3rd quarter to score any points. But to his credit, he showed some good mobility and led a 91-yard touchdown drive. The Giants finished with 17 points, which beat their expectations by a touchdown in that matchup.
DeVito somehow managed to complete 14-of-27 passes for only 86 yards but still threw 2 touchdowns. At least he only turned it over once and used his mobility to rush for 41 yards.
The Washington defense is not good, and it traded Chase Young (49ers) and Montez Sweat (Bears) earlier this season, so the pass rush is even weaker now.
The Pick
If DeVito can put up 17 points on the Cowboys on the road, who is to say he can’t score about that much on an inferior Washington defense? The Commanders struggle to score on the Giants, who also held the Bills to 14 points not that many weeks ago.
We are used to seeing the Giants getting destroyed this season, but Washington is not a good enough team to do that the way those other teams did. Plus, division games can be weird. Just look at Washington scoring 31 points on the Eagles twice. But it looks like the Giants have an edge on the Commanders too, so we’ll go with the underdog to cover.
Score Prediction: Commanders 24 – Giants 16
NFL Pick: Giants +10 (-110) at BetAnySports (visit our BetAnySports Review)
Steelers Can’t Keep Beating the Odds, Can They?
Since 2022, the Pittsburgh Steelers are 15-11 despite being outscored by 64 points, something only a short list of teams have done in any 26-game span since the merger. This season, the Steelers have had fewer yards than their opponent in every game and are still 6-3, which has never been done before since stats were first recorded in 1933.
At some point, this lack of quality play should catch up with them as the Steelers are leaning heavily on winning the turnover battle. Their plus-10 differential is tied with Cincinnati for the best in the league. Meanwhile, the Browns have a minus-4 turnover differential, which is tied with several teams for the 5th-worst number in the league this year.
But the Browns have a strong defense too, and they are hoping to outdo the Pittsburgh defense this time after the Week 2 loss where the Steelers returned a couple of Deshaun Watson turnovers for touchdowns in a 26-22 upset win.
Cleveland is a 4-point home favorite with a total of 37 points. Surprisingly, we are looking at the spread instead of the under in this one.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, November 19, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Cleveland Browns Stadium
Week 2 Recap: Steelers 26, Browns 22
The Browns lost a really tough Monday night game in Pittsburgh way back in Week 2. Not only did they outgain the Steelers 408-255 in yards, but they lost Nick Chubb to a season-ending injury.
But the game started with Deshaun Watson throwing a pick-6 just 9 seconds into the game, and the scoring ended when Highsmith strip-sacked Watson, and T.J. Watt returned the ball 16 yards for a game-winning touchdown.
If Watson can limit his huge mistakes, the Browns win that game easily as the defense had a great night outside of a play where George Pickens got loose for a 71-yard touchdown catch.
Watson took 6 sacks, had 3 turnovers, and missed repeatedly on throws to the sidelines to Amari Cooper, who was usually open. It made the Browns look like a non-serious contender as they lost to Pittsburgh again.
But Cleveland has played better in the weeks since, and they should feel confident after coming back to beat the superior Ravens last week in Baltimore. They just need to get over this mental block against Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh’s Limited Winning Formula
By now, you know what the Steelers are going to do since they’ve essentially done it since 2021 when Ben Roethlisberger’s arm was washed up in this Matt Canada-coached offense.
The Steelers just want to protect the ball, get the game close into the 4th quarter, win it on one great drive, and trust the defense to have their back with the final stop. They have done this repeatedly, including each of the last 2 home wins against the Titans and Packers. Both games ended with the Steelers winning by 4 points after the defense intercepted Will Levis and Jordan Love just short of the end zone.
One thing different for the Steelers last week was a strong running game that chewed up the Packers. Right tackle Broderick Jones looks like a good fit after the team used a 1st-round pick on him to play left tackle and found a better fit on the right. But Myles Garrett and company on the road will be a huge test.
Kenny Pickett still has just 13 touchdown passes in 22 career games. He is 2-0 against Cleveland but it is hard to be impressed by either performance. Pickett is also 12-1 when the Steelers score at least 16 points, so the bar is low for this offense to clear if they want to win the game on their terms.
The Pick
Cleveland is the only team Pickett has beaten by more than 10 points in his career. That was a Week 18 game in Pittsburgh last year, a 28-14 loss started by Watson, who is 0-3 against the Steelers with 18 sacks taken.
But if Watson can trust his defense and protect the ball this week instead of being a hero, he should win this game. Possibly by a good margin too as the Steelers only seem to win close or lose big.
We’ll take the Browns to not turn it over twice for touchdowns this time and get the cover over their bitter rival for your NFL picks.
Score Prediction: Browns 24 – Steelers 15
NFL Pick: Browns -4 (-110) at Bookmaker
49ers and Buccaneers End Losing Streaks Before Week 11 Clash
San Francisco fans can take a deep breath. The 3-game losing streak is over after the team dominated the Jaguars in Jacksonivlle with a 34-3 win. Now the 49ers can move to 7-3 with a home win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are 4-5 after ending their 4-game losing slide with a 20-6 win over Tennessee on Sunday.
The 49ers are an 11-point home favorite with a total of 41 points. We are looking at that spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, November 19, 2023 – 04:05 PM ET at Levi’s Stadium
Remembering Brock Purdy’s First Start vs. Tampa Bay
Last December, Brock Purdy was virtually unknown to the NFL world when he had to make his first start against the Buccaneers in Week 14. The most we knew was he was Mr. Irrelevant, the last pick in the draft, and he’d go up against Tom Brady’s Buccaneers.
The end result was Tampa trailed 35-0, something Brady never experienced before, and Purdy did a great job of leading the most talented offense in the league. The 49ers won 35-7 and Purdy finished 16-of-21 for 185 yards, 2 touchdowns, and he rushed for a touchdown.
The 49ers kept rolling from there, and Purdy did not lose until he was injured on the opening series of the NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia. He started this season 5-0, leading the 49ers to 30 points in every game and making them look like the best team in the league.
But after running into some issues with turnovers, the 49ers lost 3 in a row, never scoring more than 17 points, and people were questioning if the 49ers made a mistake in keeping Purdy as their franchise quarterback.
Well, he at least settled that for a week as the Jaguars were picked apart by Purdy for 296 yards and 3 touchdowns. The 49ers won the turnover battle 4-0 and looked like a juggernaut again, winning 34-3.
Now Purdy gets another crack at a Tampa Bay team that was blown out in San Francisco last year.
Will Baker Mayfield Avoid Mistakes on the Road?
Outside of Mike Evans, the Buccaneers have not been very consistent this season. They were able to end a 4-game losing streak by shutting down the Titans in a 20-6 win. They weren’t going to let rookie Will Levis embarrass them the way they did C.J. Stroud in Houston the week before.
But can the Bucs get the job done in San Francisco against Nick Bosa and an elite defense? It doesn’t look promising. We have already seen the Buccaneers lose 20-6 to the Lions and 25-11 to the Eagles, and both of those games were in Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers also lost 24-18 in Buffalo, and it took an all-time fluke of a drive to get those last 8 points for the cover with multiple 4th downs converted by penalty and tipped balls caught on the touchdown and 2-point conversion.
Like last year, the Buccaneers are still terrible at running the ball, ranked 31st in yards and 32nd in yards per carry. Baker Mayfield’s mobility is a plus over the lack of movement from Tom Brady last year, but finishing drives with points has still been an issue as the Buccaneers are 22nd in scoring.
The good news is the Bucs have just 8 giveaways, so that has not been an issue for this team. But we saw last year for Tampa how that fortune can turn in a hurry, and especially when you are on the road playing the best roster in the NFL.
The Pick
The bye week was a wake-up call for the 49ers. They answered the bell and looked like a great, complete team in Jacksonville, which is not a bad team by any means. Now the 49ers get the worst of the Florida teams this week, and while it may not be 35-7 again like last year, it should be another comfortable win by 2 touchdowns for Kyle Shanahan’s team.
Score Prediction: 49ers 28 – Buccaneers 15
NFL Pick: 49ers -11 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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