John Steinbeck’s last novel, “The Winter of Our Discontent,” was released in 1961, but the title was plucked from a line in Shakespeare’s Richard III, “Now is the winter of our discontent…”
As long as Steinbeck is allowed to plagiarize, I, too, shall pilfer the same line. But the problem is, it’s not even winter, and already my discontent grows stronger by the week. Indeed, I am coming off another losing week. I feel like a nurse without arms; I can’t stop the bleeding.
Last week we went 1-2, dropping two units on the Browns and four units on the Steelers. There was also a three-unit winner on Seattle tossed in between, just so the gambling gods can throw us off the scent that they’re all having a good laugh at my expense.
In summary, we lost 3.68 units and are now down over 37 units on the season. But here’s the irony. I’m in a pick ’em pool where contestants must pick all the games against the spread. And guess who’s in third place of 50? Yeah, and if the sides I picked here weren’t included in this pool, I’d be perched in first place. Life’s a bitch.
Well, complaining won’t do me any good, so it’s onward and upward. This week’s best NFL picks from BMR’s proprietary algorithm are available as well.
Let’s get to our NFL picks Week 11 and keep pluggin’ along. Keep the faith, kids.
Swinger’s 2025 NFL Record: 11-20 ATS (-37.20 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) @SwingeratBMR
NFL Picks Week 11 At-a-Glance
This week’s NFL picks are not going to show any panic. I have yet to release a five-unit max play because nothing has struck me as being that compelling, and I won’t shoot three max bets just to narrow the deficit as quickly as possible. As much as we’d like to chase, we won’t, because that’s one of the golden rules of sports betting: never chase your losses.
We will maintain our composure, and, for better or worse, below are our NFL picks for Week 11. Let’s get to it, shall we?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills (-5)
Sunday, November 16 – 1:00 PM ET
Like all of us, teams have good days and bad days. Last week, the Bills had a very bad day when they were shocked, 30-13, by the lowly Miami Dolphins. But let’s face it, that’s not who they are, and although they may not be the juggernaut they were last season, they have also been a steady victim of the injury bug. Such was the case last week when they were down several defensive starters.
Because of that, we are seeing a rather tempting line that is well below the magic numbers of 7 and 6, with Bookmaker being one of the few hanging Buffalo -5 as of this writing. The rest of the sportsbooks have installed the Bills -5½, but I believe this is an ideal spot for the Bills to get well. We should also note that Josh Allen is 14-9 against the number after a loss during his career.
Speaking of wellness, they should have a full defensive core ready to rock, while Baker Mayfield and the Bucs have just one lone receiver worth his salt—rookie Emeka Egbuka. As for their ground game, Bucky Irving is injured, and I suspect this 6-3 team is not as good as their record.
Let’s back the Bills to roll at home in the chilly Buffalo weather against a warm-weather team like the Bucs.
Expert Pick: Buffalo Bills -5 (-113) for 4 units at Bookmaker
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Sunday, November 16 – 1:00 PM ET
The Bears, like the Bucs, are 6-3, but are they really? Caleb Williams has been better this season, but he didn’t really have anywhere to go but up after an underwhelming rookie season. Chicago has been the beneficiary of lucky bounces and fortunate breaks. But as they say, even a train stops.
The Vikings defeated the Bears in Chicago, 27-24, earlier this season, and Minnesota has won eight of the last nine meetings, covering in seven of them. And more to the point, the Vikings are finally getting healthy with a pair of offensive linemen, Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill, returning to the fold.
I believe young J.J. McCarthy is going to carve up this injury-riddled Chicago secondary like a Thanksgiving turkey. After all, it’s not like he’s got no one to throw to with the likes of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison at his disposal.
Let’s lay it and like it on the Vikings.
Expert Pick: Minnesota Vikings -3 (-108) for 3 units at Heritage Sports
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns (+7.5)
Sunday, November 16 – 4:25 PM ET
This last of my NFL picks is in complete contrast to my esteemed colleague, the Woodman, as he is firmly on the side of the home hounds, the Cleveland Browns. I guess it goes to show you that great minds do not always think alike.
We took the Browns last week for two units, but my reluctance was that their offense does not score. Yet, against the Jets, everyone scores, even the nerdy kid at the high school dance. But the Browns allowed a punt and a kickoff touchdown—two in one game! Naturally, they lost 27-20, and they will get croaked against the reenergized Baltimore Ravens that now have Lamar Jackson under center.
Baltimore is 3-0 SU and ATS over their last three games, and now they are playing a divisional rival that they smoked, 47-15, in their previous game this season. The Baltimore defense is now healthy, and they will punish Cleveland’s young quarterback, Dillon Gabriel.
The only hope the Browns have of covering is their vaunted defense, but they will eventually get worn down by Jackson and the Ravens’ offense, so I’m not too concerned about that.
Maybe the Ravens win by eight, meaning I cash and so does the Woodman. Do you see the disparity in lines that we have? It pays to shop around, kids.
Expert Pick: Baltimore Ravens -7.5 (-110) for 3 units at Bovada
The Woodman’s Picks (7-3 ATS)
The Woodman rebounded from one of his rare losses this season when he backed the suddenly resurgent New England Patriots against the Tampa Bay Bucs. He didn’t give two damns that they were on the road and getting less than a field goal head start. They’re Mike Vrabel’s Patriots, and they can fly!
Well, he’s hoping to release another winner with the largest underdog on Sunday’s board. The Woodman is telling all who will listen to bet the farm on the Cleveland Browns for the luvva gawd!
The Woodman’s Week 11 NFL Pick: Browns +8½ (-116) at Bookmaker
Place your NFL Week 11 Bets Now
The NFL picks Week 11 I posted today don’t stay stagnant forever. The odds, point spreads, and totals are dynamic, which means the point spreads you see written here on the Bills, Vikings, and Ravens game may not be around by gametime.
That’s why it’s essential that you obtain the sharpest line available, so make sure your account is funded and ready to go!
Where to Find the Best NFL Odds
To make the most of our NFL picks for Week 11, shop around for the sharpest lines available at the best offshore sportsbooks. Getting the best price can turn a loss into a win over the long season.
For this week’s top picks, take a look at the NFL odds at Bookmaker, Bovada, and Heritage Sports. Having access to multiple books ensures you’re getting the best possible number, and in this game, every half-point counts.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
