NFL Pick: Amari Cooper Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s first Sunday of 2023 has a big game for the Cleveland Browns, who look to improve to 5-1 against Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Half of the NFL’s Week 1 schedule is division games, but some of our favorite player prop picks are in the non-division games, including Eagles-Patriots and Dolphins-Chargers.
We have included a handful of our top player prop picks for Week 1, which you will find at top offshore sportsbooks. Feel free to play them as singles or parlay a few of your favorites together.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, September 10, 2023 – 04:25 PM EDT at Gillette Stadium
Mac Jones (New England Patriots)
- Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted
Let’s follow the game script on this one. Mac Jones is facing a Philadelphia team that can score with the best of them, so there is a likelihood he will be throwing more than usual to catch up. The Eagles also have a strong pass rush that had 70 sacks and 17 interceptions last season, so they can cause havoc to quarterbacks, especially after drafting Jalen Carter from Georgia.
Coin Flip
Jones has been intercepted in 17 of 32 games, so it is a coin-flip for him. But his over/under for pass attempts in this game is 34.5. Given the expectations of him throwing more, Jones has been intercepted in 8-of-13 career games when throwing at least 35 passes, including 4 losses where he threw multiple picks.
The Pick
While the Patriots hired a real offensive coordinator in Bill O’Brien, they did not do much to upgrade the weapons around Jones. Look for the Eagles to make Jones play from behind, which he is no Tom Brady at doing. Take the Eagles to intercept him for your NFL best bets.
NFL Pick: Mac Jones Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-137) at Bovada
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, September 10, 2023 – 04:25 PM EDT at Soldier Field
Aaron Jones (Green Bay Packers)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
The Packers officially begin the Jordan Love era with a fitting game in Chicago against their long-time rival. While the Packers are loaded with young, inexperienced skill players, running back Aaron Jones is now the veteran leader going into his 7th season.
Bounce Back Season?
His 2022 season was disappointing as he scored 7 touchdowns, his fewest since his rookie year. Worse, Jones only had 2 rushing touchdowns (career low), but he did make sure he got a score against the Bears, a team he has hit up for 9 touchdowns in 11 games. Jones has scored in 4-of-5 games against the Bears since 2020.
Chicago’s defense was abysmal last year and allowed a league-high 31 rushing touchdowns. The Bears have nowhere to go but up on defense, but it should still be a challenging year on that side of the ball.
The Pick
Meanwhile, Jordan Love has looked good, throwing a touchdown in each preseason game. He looks capable of leading this offense to a solid scoring day against a team coach Matt LaFleur is very familiar with beating and scoring against.
You could even go all out for the value with Love scoring a rushing touchdown (+500 at Bovada) as we do not know how LaFleur plans to use him as the starter, but the safer pick is Jones finding the end zone in some manner (he had 5 receiving touchdowns in 2022) in this rivalry game.
NFL Pick: Aaron Jones Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+140) at Bovada
Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, September 10, 2023 – 04:25 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers)
- Over 37.5 Pass Attempts
Justin Herbert (40.1) is the only quarterback in NFL history to average over 40 pass attempts per game for his career. While the theme for the 2023 season should be to make life easier on Herbert, the Miami defense was one that the Chargers attacked relentlessly last year with Herbert completing a season-high 39 passes on 51 attempts in the 23-17 win.
It was an odd game with the defense forcing Tua Tagovailoa into many incompletions, but we know Miami has real scoring capability with its speed to turn this into a shootout where Herbert has to throw often.
Herbert attempted over 37.5 passes in 11-of-18 games last year, and it would have been 12 if he was not pulled in Week 18 before the fourth quarter with the team’s playoff seed locked up. Similarly, Herbert was over 37.5 passes in 11-of-17 games in 2021.
The Pick
The Chargers have a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore, but he loves fast tempo and calling a lot of pass plays. The Dolphins also have a new coordinator in Vic Fangio running the defense, but he won’t have Jalen Ramsey (meniscus) at corner yet.
Herbert may not need to crack 50 attempts again to beat the Dolphins, but over 37.5 feels like a steal compared to the other quarterbacks in this market for Week 1.
NFL Pick: Justin Herbert Over 37.5 Pass Attempts (-110) at Bovada
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, September 10, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Lucas Oil Stadium
Michael Pittman Jr. (Indianapolis Colts)
- Longest Reception Over 19.5 Yards
We start to learn about the Colts this year as rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson makes his debut running rookie coach Shane Steichen’s offense, but they will not have Jonathan Taylor in the backfield.
They will have Michael Pittman Jr., who should easily still be the No. 1 wide receiver this year. Pittman had a career-high 13 catches for 134 yards in his last home game against the Jaguars last year.
His longest catch in that game was 20 yards, but the Colts did throw nearly 60 passes as they were going with a fast, tempo game that will likely not be the case this week with a rookie.
Proving Critics Wrong
He could prove us wrong, but expectations are for Richardson to be an erratic passer this rookie season. Someone who has a low completion percentage, low yards per attempt, high air yards per attempt, and high average yards per completion.
You could already start to see it unfold in his last preseason game against the Eagles. Richardson was 6-of-17 for 78 yards, which is 13 yards per completion (would have ranked No. 2 in the 2022 season) but 4.8 yards per attempt (would have ranked dead last).
The Pick
It should be an interesting learning curve for the rookie, but a good bet this week is that he finds his big No. 1 target for at least one big play as the Colts hope to keep up with favored Jacksonville.
Just do not expect Pittman to sniff the high volume he had a year ago in this matchup. The Colts are going to have to do things differently this season with Richardson’s skillset.
NFL Pick: Michael Pittman Jr. Longest Reception Over 19.5 Yards (-115) at Bovada
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, September 10, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Cleveland Browns Stadium
Amari Cooper (Cleveland Browns)
- Over 58.5 Receiving Yards
The Browns have had a great history against Joe Burrow, going 4-1 against him with the Bengals since 2020. We will see if that defensive success continues with a new coordinator, but coach Kevin Stefanski has always been able to get great offensive results against their in-state rivals.
Not the case Watson
However, that was not the case in Deshaun Watson’s only start at quarterback against the Bengals under Stefanski. He was just 2-of-7 for 42 yards when targeting No. 1 wideout Amari Cooper, who had a season-high 131 yards and a touchdown when Jacoby Brissett led the Browns to a 32-13 win over the Bengals on Halloween.
Cooper’s numbers did get worse with the switch from Brissett to Watson, but they also faced some stronger defenses in worse weather conditions down the stretch. Watson should play better this time, and Cooper has already shown he can put up huge numbers on this defense.
The Pick
The Bengals also regressed in the secondary after losing safeties Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell. Replacements Dak Hill and Nick Scott are not impressive. This would be a great game for Cooper to catch another deep one as he had a 53-yard grab against the Bengals last year.
Cooper was under 58.5 yards in 8 games last year, and 6-of-8 were on the road. Trust him at home to go over in this matchup for your NFL best bets.
NFL Pick: Amari Cooper Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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