Top NFL Pick: Jared Goff Over 278.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Divisional Round has strong potential for good quarterback matchups across the board. But Sunday’s games feel even more likely to produce some back-and-forth action that will go down to the wire after last week’s one-sided games.
We scoped out the NFL odds to find our favorite player props for Sunday’s Divisional Round action. Feel free to play the picks as singles or parlay your favorites at our main offshore sportsbooks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, January 21, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at Ford Field
Jared Goff (Detroit Lions)
Outside of Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff is the only quarterback left in this postseason who has started a Super Bowl before. He just knocked out Matthew Stafford and the Rams with one of his best playoff performances, bringing the city of Detroit a playoff win for the first time in over 30 years.
Goff has been steady and consistent in leading this Detroit offense the last 2 years, and he has them 2 wins away from the Super Bowl.
Not everyone could step in and do that in Detroit.
Now Goff gets a home game against a Tampa defense that he shredded in a 20-6 win in Week 6. Goff passed for a season-high 353 yards. The Lions needed it since the running game had a season-low 40 yards. What happened there? David Montgomery was injured early in the game, and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs was already on the inactive list that day. The Lions just abandoned the run and leaned on Goff, who delivered a quality game against Tampa Bay’s blitz-happy defense.
Goff has faced Todd Bowles and the Bucs 3 times since 2019. The first 2 of those games were when he was with the Rams, but Bowles always plays a similar defense with a big emphasis on blitzing.
Every time Goff has played against Bowles, he has been asked to throw the ball frequently. He has at least 44 attempts and over 350 yards in every game against Tampa. We only need him to go over 278.5 yards in this one, but he has been at that number several times this year, including 320 yards in Week 18 against Minnesota, one of the only defenses that blitzes more than Tampa this year.
The Pick
Don’t look now but the Lions have not run for 80 yards in the last 2 weeks. They will do better than the 40 yards they had in Week 6. Goff is still going to have to throw often in this game, and attacking the blitz with quick throws is a good way for him to do it.
Goff has thrown for at least 278 yards in 4-of-5 games this year against the defenses that blitzed him the most. We’ll look for him to do it again as he seeks a 4th-straight 300-yard game against the Buccaneers.
NFL Pick: Jared Goff Over 278.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
One of the favorite prop picks this year has been Baker Mayfield throwing multiple touchdowns on the road for Tampa Bay. It has hit in 7-of-9 games, and you can understand why he came up just a little short in San Francisco against a great defense. He also did not do it in Week 18 against Carolina, but he was also playing injured in that game that ended 9-0.
But Mayfield looked healthy against the Eagles and threw 3 more touchdowns. Sure, the Eagles’ tackling effort was horrific, but the Detroit defense is giving up a lot of passing plays right now. You saw it again last week when Matthew Stafford threw for over 360 yards for the Rams with half of that going to rookie Puka Nacua.
That has been a trend throughout the season as Goff has engaged in some big shootouts with Geno Smith (Seahawks), Justin Herbert (Chargers), and twice with Nick Mullens (Vikings).
Mayfield has the No. 32 rushing offense behind him, so it’s not like the Bucs aren’t trying to win with their best players like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and an emerging tight end in Cade Otton. They have to throw to keep up with the Lions, who routinely score 25 points at home under Goff.
The Pick
You can always remember where you were when you tell your kids you watched the great Mayfield-Goff shootout in the 2023 divisional round. Both teams will favor the pass over the run this week with those receivers, and Mayfield should continue his hot play with a couple of touchdown tosses again.
NFL Pick: Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-105) at Bovada
Josh Reynolds (Detroit Lions)
Josh Reynolds was another player who wanted to make a statement last week against the Rams, his former team.
He was money early with 5 catches for 80 yards. It was similar to opening night in Kansas City when he had 4 catches for 80 yards, and the Chiefs have a great defense this year, so that was another standout performance against a playoff defense.
We saw DeVonta Smith have a huge game as the speed receiver for the Eagles last week with A.J. Brown out. The Lions are still going to favor Amon-Ra St. Brown over everyone in the passing game, but there should be plenty of yards to go around for Reynolds to cash in his over too.
He is one of Goff’s best targets on those play-action passes in the intermediate area of the field.
The Pick
Reynolds has gone over 40.5 yards in 10 games this year. He does it more often than not. He caught all 3 of his targets for 50 yards in Tampa Bay in Week 6. We will trust him to deliver in this one too as we have pegged this game for a passing shootout.
At worst, it’s a repeat of Week 6 when the Lions won 20-6 and Goff still passed for over 350 yards with 50 to Reynolds. That works just fine here for our NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Josh Reynolds Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 21, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)
Josh Allen has always been one of the best quarterbacks at scoring rushing touchdowns. He had 8 as a rookie in 2018 and 9 more scores in 2019, and that was even before we knew he could become a great passer too.
But Allen has rung his count to 53 rushing touchdowns in his career, and he may be overtaking Jalen Hurts as the premiere quarterback in that realm, as he has copied the Tush Push quite well in Buffalo. A lot of his touchdowns are even from much further out than the 1-yard line such as his 52-yard romp last week against the Steelers.
Including that play, Allen now has 16 rushing touchdowns this year. After not scoring in either of the first 2 games this season, Allen has scored in 13-of-16 games.
In Week 14 against the Chiefs, Allen had another designed touchdown run. Allen never scored a touchdown run in either playoff game against Kansas City, but it wasn’t for a lack of running. He had 18 runs for 156 yards in those games in 2020 and 2021.
But Allen has the benefit of the Tush Push this year and an aggressive mindset. He’ll call his own number and the Bills have no next week if he doesn’t score, so look for him to go all out this weekend.
The Pick
You never know, this could be the last chance you get until September to bet on Allen to score a rushing touchdown.
He has just been so automatic at that this year that it would be hard to imagine they don’t go to him in this huge matchup. He is a better option at the goal line than James Cook for this team, and the Bills seem to get more energized when they see him take one in himself.
For maybe the last time this year, let’s go with Allen to score a touchdown.
NFL Pick: Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-121) at Bovada
Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)
A bit similar to Allen, Patrick Mahomes is no stranger to letting his legs do his job in the postseason.
While he’s not going to hurdle someone 8 yards short of the marker like Allen would, Mahomes is a gifted scrambler and will take off when he sees open field, especially in January and February.
We saw it again last week against the Dolphins in the 4th-coldest game in NFL history. Instead of relying on a tight-window throw to one of those receivers, Mahomes took off for scrambles of 28 and 13 yards. They were his only rushing plays of the game, but he finished with an effective 41 yards. His helmet was cracked on the last run too, so you might not blame him for not taking off anymore after that huge hit destroyed his equipment.
The Pick
Mahomes had his most rushing yards in a playoff game against Buffalo in 2021 with 69 yards and a touchdown, something he still hasn’t scored this year (something to keep in mind this week). That was another reason that the 42-36 overtime classic was so spectacular. Allen and Mahomes both led their teams in rushing that day.
They may not need to do that this week with the way these teams trust Isiah Pacheco and James Cook in the backfield, not to mention how good the defenses are.
But Mahomes is playing as a road underdog for the first time in the playoffs, and his legs are one of his most effective weapons. He also is healthy this postseason, unlike in 2020 (foot/nerve injuries) and last year’s high-ankle sprain.
Mahomes has rushed for over 28.5 yards in 8-of-15 playoff games in his career. Let’s go with 1-for-1 for doing it on the road.
NFL Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 28.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada
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