Top NCAAF Pick: South Dakota State -12½ (-110) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The FCS Championship is on the line and a familiar name will be back in the ring to take another swing. South Dakota State has been in the FCS Playoffs three consecutive seasons including last year when they won the national championship.
This year, they will face the formidable Montana Grizzlies in what should be an entertaining Sunday afternoon matchup. Let’s check out the college football odds board as we break down this contest between the last two teams left standing for FCS supremacy.
Montana Grizzlies vs. South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Sunday, January 07, 2024 – 02:00 PM EDT at Toyota Stadium
Stat Trifecta
- South Dakota State is a perfect 14-0 this season entering this matchup.
- South Dakota State is 5-2 ATS over their last 7 games.
- South Dakota State owns the No. 1 defense in the FCS, allowing just 9.7 points per game.
Grizzlies Escape Semifinals
Montana hadn’t lost a game since mid-September and was on a nine-game winning streak as they welcomed North Dakota State to their home venue, Washington-Grizzly Stadium, where the Grizzlies had yet to lose a game all season.
But that didn’t deter the Bison from valiantly trying to tarnish the Grizzlies’ pristine home record as they scored a game-tying touchdown with under a minute remaining to knot the game at 23 before taking this one into overtime.
Freshman tailback, Eli Gillman, broke free for a 13-yard scamper into the end zone before head coach Bobby Hauck swallowed hard and made the decision to go for the 2-point conversion, which proved to be successful.
NDS would return fire and get a touchdown of their own but their conversion attempt was unsuccessful and the game wrapped, 31-29, in favor of the Grizzlies in double overtime.
Jackrabbits Looking to Cap Perfect Season
Although Albany made it to the FCS semifinals, nobody believed they had any shot against the force of nature hailing from South Dakota State. The oddsmakers made the Jackrabbits 17½ point home chalk in what looked like a regular-season cakewalk for South Dakota State rather than an epic postseason battle against a top contender.
The sportsbooks had it right when they installed the Jackrabbits as double-digit favorites, but little did they know they could have added another 41 points to the spread and South Dakota State would still have covered the number.
When the smoke cleared, the Jackrabbits obliterated the Great Danes, 59-0, and junior quarterback, Mark Gronowski, went 15-of-19 for 265 yards and three passing touchdowns. The SDS offense would rack up 556 total yards while the defense notched its third shutout of the season.
The Pick
I’m not sure how you can bet against this South Dakota State squad. Of course, the point spread is the ultimate equalizer, but do you believe the Montana Grizzlies can hang and bang with this team and keep it within the 12½ point margin?
I have serious doubts about that, and if we take a look at a common opponent, North Dakota State, we see that Montana barely escaped their clutches with a two-point double overtime win in their last outing to punch their ticket to this title tilt against South Dakota State.
However, the Jackrabbits met that same North Dakota State team on November 4th and cruised to a 33-16 victory, covering as 14-point favorites. I guess we can then deduce how the books came up with this point spread, as Montana defeated NDS by two points and instead of installing them as 14-point underdogs like North Dakota State, the oddsmakers made the Grizzlies 12½ point dogs, perhaps considering that two-point victory when creating this line.
Montana Has No Chance
Montana owns an excellent defense, ranked 5th in the FCS surrendering just 16.8 points per game. But they are tasked with containing one of the most explosive offenses in the nation. South Dakota State averages 38.4 points and over 456 yards per game.
Yet, you could make the argument that Montana is also equipped with a potent offense, one that averages 32.2 points and 383 yards per contest. But that can quickly be countered by pointing out that SDS has the stingiest defense in the nation, allowing a mere 9.7 points per game!
Before I even glance at a line, I always make my own first, so I don’t influence myself by looking at what the pros are hanging. When I constructed this line, I made South Dakota State a 17-point favorite, which would have made this game a pass for me.
But now that we get the Rabbits at -12½, we can get below two critical numbers – 13 and 14 – which makes this an easy play for me. I see the final score as South Dakota State 31 – Montana 13. Lay it with the Rabbits.
NCAAF Pick: South Dakota State -12½ (-110) at Heritage Sports
NCAAF Pick: Under 49½ (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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