MLB Best Bet for May 8: Buy Rockies Low for Mystery Matchup

We’ve been known to make some contrarian baseball picks here at the ranch. You have to be a bit crazy to bet on the Colorado Rockies; they’re off to an absolutely horrible start this year at 6-28, already dropping 18.78 units against the moneyline on the MLB odds board. But that’s what “buying low” is all about, right?

We’re also “selling high” on the Detroit Tigers (22-13, plus-5.45 units) for the second game of Thursday’s doubleheader. And we’re not the only ones. The early consensus figures at BMR show 83% support for Colorado, even though their baseball odds have moved from +140 at the open to +158 at BetOnline.

Is big money sharp money? Not anymore – not when so many online sportsbooks in the regulated space are capping the maximum bets for the wiseguys. You probably wouldn’t want to risk a large portion of your bankroll on a regular-season baseball game in May, either, but this particular contest should be worth at least a fun-size wager.

Who’s Pitching?

We don’t know. That’s the beauty of this matchup; it’s a make-up game for Tuesday, which turned out to be a rain day in Denver. Neither team has announced a starter as we go to press – and they don’t even have an official start time. Game 2 will begin about 30 minutes after Game 1 ends.

This also might be why Game 2 is the busiest matchup on Thursday’s MLB betting calendar, at least in the early going. With both teams likely to put “AAAA-level” talent on the mound as they try to keep their rotations from flying apart, the considerable gap between the two should close somewhat.

Not that Detroit’s starters have been killing it this year. They rank No. 12 overall on the FanGraphs WAR charts, still way ahead of the Rockies at No. 25. But if Thursday’s nightcap turns into a “bullpen” game, the Tigers slip even further to No. 17 on the WAR charts, while Colorado inches up to No. 24.

Are the Rockies Really This Bad?

Probably not as bad as the betting public thinks. Even at their MLB-worst run differential of minus-89, the Rockies are performing at the level of an 8-26 team, which is two wins more than their actual record.

Ah, but the Tigers might also be undervalued in the marketplace. Their plus-63 differential translates to a Pythagorean record of 25-10, which suggests Detroit has left three victories on the table through no fault of their own.

The obvious difference between the two is their place in the standings. The Rockies are dead last, so they’re more prone to being undervalued; the Tigers lead the American League Central by one game over the Cleveland Guardians as we go to press.

We should also point out that Detroit hitters have a combined .306 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play), which ranks third in the majors. The Rockies are once again No. 25 in this category at .275 BABIP. Both those numbers should regress towards somewhere around .285 or so.

The Pick

You might already know something about who’ll start Game 2 by the time you read this, in which case the baseball lines may already be on the march.

But again, there’s enough built-in chaos for this matchup to make the Rockies our value pick – including a 20% chance of rain in Thursday’s game-time forecast, with light crosswinds across Coors Field. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.

MLB Pick: Rockies ML (+158) at BetOnline

Rockies ML (+158)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.