Top MLB Pick: Padres/Brewers First-Five Under 4.5 (+100) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today. My three favorite games to bet on are: Blue Jays vs. Twins, Braves vs. Giants, and Padres vs. Brewers.
For your best bets, I will recommend the following first-five plays: Blue Jays money-line, Braves run-line, and Padres-Brewers Under.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins
Saturday, June 07, 2025 – 02:10 PM EDT at Target Field
Toronto Has Caught Fire
For much of the season, Toronto had been stuck around the .500 mark. Recently, however, things have changed for the better. While the Blue Jays have pitched well in several games, it is primarily their lineup that is thriving, thanks to different contributors like Bo Bichette.
They enter today’s game having won eight of their last nine games. During this nine-game stretch, they’ve scored six or more runs in six different games.
Sizzling Toronto vs. Minnesota’s Starter
Chris Paddack, today’s starter for the Twins, will face Toronto’s lineup while relying primarily on his four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball.
During its ongoing hot stretch of play, Toronto ranks first with a .527 slugging rate against Paddack’s favorite pitches from righties. The vast improvement of Toronto’s lineup thus positions it positively against Paddack.
Outlook for Toronto’s Starter
Kevin Gausman starts for the Blue Jays today and enjoys a terrific outlook.
He loves facing Minnesota’s batters. They slug .372 with him on the mound. In 113 at-bats, they have mustered all of eight extra-base hits off him. Overall, they have accumulated 13 more strikeouts than hits when facing him.
Gausman was unfortunate in his last start in that he was a victim of a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that conceals how well he actually pitched. His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in that start was 1.36, which shows how well he is pitching.
Having luck on his side today can only give him help that he doesn’t need in this matchup, especially with his strong form.
MLB Pick: Blue Jays First-Five ML (-120) at BetOnline
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants
Saturday, June 07, 2025 – 04:05 PM EDT at Oracle Park
San Francisco’s Starter
Logan Webb starts for the Giants today.
It’s tempting to back Webb blindly and especially to do so after his last start. While he shut out the Padres in that last start, he was due for some positive regression given that his FIP was lower than his ERA in each of his two previous starts.
Today, the spot is bad for Webb. He has yet to follow such a magnificent outing with another good performance. After shutting out the Reds on April 7, he gave up three runs in five innings to the Yankees in his following start. Likewise, he allowed five runs to the Padres team that he just locked down after he shut out the Brewers in his previous outing.
Webb vs. Braves Batters
Atlanta’s lineup can’t wait to face Webb, especially with him coming off a shutout.
Collectively, Braves batters slug .439 against him. Ronald Acuña slugs .778 with Webb on the mound, but even lesser-known batters thrive. Michael Harris, for example, is 6-for-11 with a triple and a home run when facing Webb.
Atlanta’s Starter
Bryce Elder starts for Atlanta today.
His Braves are heavy underdogs, but the Braves are a great dog with their lineup primed to flourish today and Elder having a strong outlook in this matchup. San Francisco ranks 22nd with a .388 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Elder is coming off an unfortunate start in which his ERA was 1.80 higher than his FIP, so even luck is on his side today, although he won’t need it. For this Elder-Webb matchup, oddsmakers are way off. We can even get the underdog run-line at a cheap price.
MLB Pick: Braves First-Five +0.5 (-110) at BetOnline
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Saturday, June 07, 2025 – 07:35 PM EDT at American Family Field
San Diego’s Underrated Starter
Stephen Kolek starts for the Paders tonight.
Kolek is not someone for whom bettors had much respect when entering this season. He has, after all, bounced around between the minors and the MLB.
However, he had a very productive offseason in which he accumulated comfort with his different pitches. He also adopted game-planning tactics of Michael King, who likewise enjoyed great growth as a Padre and did so with an arsenal similar to Kolek’s.
By several different statistical measures, Kolek is having his best season ever.
Kolek vs. Brewers
One can only expect Kolek to continue to succeed tonight because he matches up so well against Milwaukee’s lineup. The Brewers rank 29th with a .361 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Outlook for Jose Quintana
Jose Quintana, tonight’s starter for Milwaukee, will help keep the scoring low.
Quintana loves facing San Diego’s batters, who collectively slug .375 against him. San Diego’s batters struggle against Quintana because his favorite pitches, combined with the fact that he is left-handed, bother them. The Padres slug .296 against the sinker and changeup from lefties.
As an exception, Fernando Tatis hits him well, but he is ice-cold. San Diego as a whole, in fact, is cold. Entering today’s affair, the Padres have failed to exceed two runs in four of their last five games, excluding extra innings.
While the full-game Under makes sense given the recent strongly improved quality of Milwaukee’s bullpen and the season-long success of San Diego’s bullpen, I prefer to focus on the first five innings because we know which pitchers exactly will be on the mound during this phase of the game and because the 4.5 first-half total it feels like oddsmakers are especially slow to adjust to Kolek’s improvement.
MLB Pick: Padres/Brewers First-Five Under 4.5 (+100) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
