Missouri vs. Mississippi State NCAA Basketball Betting Analysis and Free Pick (Archive)
Things will get awfully familiar in the SEC this weekend. Due to a quirk in the late-season schedule, Mississippi State and Missouri will play twice in three days, in Starkville on Friday night and then in Columbia on Sunday.
Here’s a look at the NCAAB odds for the first of these two matchups.
Missouri Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Friday, February 18, 2022 – 07:00 PM EST at Humphrey Coliseum
Haven’t I Seen You Somewhere Before?
The unusual arrangement came (of course) due to COVID. An early January game had to be rescheduled due to health and safety protocols, leading to a rare Friday conference game—the first for Missouri since 1964. The rescheduled game is actually Sunday’s contest, and the originally scheduled Saturday game was pushed up a day to Friday night.
Both teams could use a win or two. The Bulldogs have lost four straight and six of seven to drop to ninth in the SEC at 14-11, 5-7. They’ll also be starting the crowded weekend schedule with just one day off since their last game, a Wednesday loss at Alabama, the second road game of the week for MSU.
Missouri has an extra day’s rest since its loss to Arkansas was on Tuesday. The Tigers have lost six of eight to fall to third from the bottom in the league at 10-15, 4-8.
Never Gelled
Like many teams, Missouri revamped its roster via the transfer portal, heading into the season. Unlike other programs, however, the four new veteran arrivals haven’t really come together for the Tigers.
“The better we become as a defense, the better we’ll become as a team,” coach Cuonzo Martin said a month ago. “This is probably my first time in coaching where I’ve had a team that really didn’t have a defensive DNA — because there are so many new guys, so understanding we have to do this in order for us to be successful.”
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It still hasn’t happened. Mizzou has allowed more than a point per possession to each of the last six opponents, and four of the last five had hit at least 40 percent from three.
The Tigers also can’t try to win games in a shootout, because the offense isn’t much better. Mizzou is No. 324 in the country in turnover rate on offense and No. 345 in three-point shooting. As a result, Martin has resorted to slowing things down in an effort to stay in games. Missouri plays at the No. 269 tempo in the nation.
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The strategy has worked at times. Missouri has upset wins over Alabama and at Texas A&M and lost by one point to Auburn and Florida. Other times, things have gotten ugly, including a 37 point loss to Kansas, a 44 point loss to Arkansas and a 14-point home loss to Missouri-Kansas City.
Heavy Workload
The rescheduling creates a busy week for MSU, who played at LSU on Saturday, at Alabama on Wednesday and now has the two games in three days this weekend. The Alabama game capped a brutal run where the Bulldogs played four straight Quad I foes, three of them on the road.
Six of their last seven games and eight of 10 have been against Quad I teams, which goes a long way toward explaining how the once 12-4 Bulldogs now stand at 14-11.
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“You can’t do a lot physically because you’re trying to recover from the day before,” said coach Ben Howland. “You hate to do that, but it is what it is. COVID caused this, and we had no control over it. We would have rather played the game as it was scheduled, but they had issues, and so we had to make adjustments in our schedules.”
One good thing for MSU is that it won’t struggle with Missouri’s efforts to slow the game. The Bulldogs actually play at an even slower tempo, ranking No. 274 in the country.
The Pick
The nasty stretch of Quad I road games has painted a pessimistic picture of Mississippi State. When the Bulldogs have played against teams they should beat, they’ve taken care of business.
MSU beat South Carolina by 14, Ole Miss by 18 and Georgia by 16. Sunday may be a different story as fatigue and familiarity eat into their advantage, but playing at home in the first game of the twin bill, the Bulldogs should roll for your NCAAB picks.
NCAAB Pick: Mississippi State -11.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
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