Michigan vs. Penn State College Football Week 11 Picks and Odds Breakdown (Archive)
The biggest Week 11 game in the Big Ten around college football features No. 9 Michigan looking to keep its East Division title hopes alive as it visits No. 23 Penn State on Saturday. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, November 13, 2021 – 12:00 PM EST at Beaver Stadium
No. 9 Michigan at No. 23 Penn State is the only Big Ten game in Week 11 featuring a pair of ranked teams from the AP Top 25. The Wolverines still have a shot to win the Big Ten East Division, while the Nittany Lions can only play spoilers.
Michigan is 14-10 all-time vs. Penn State. When both teams are ranked, U-M leads the series 6-5. Neither team was ranked last season when the Wolverines were 1-point home dogs at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks and lost 27-17.
Lions QB Sean Clifford threw for 163 yards and rushed for 63 and a touchdown. Keyvone Lee rushed 22 times for 134 yards and a score as PSU dominated time of possession. Both those guys are still around. Michigan QB Cade McNamara struggled, going 12-for-25 for 91 yards. Hassan Haskins rushed 17 times for 101 yards and two scores. Both those guys are still playing for U-M.
Even with that loss, Michigan is 5-2 against the spread in the past seven meetings.
Will Michigan Have Corum Available?
The Wolverines (8-1, 5-1 Big Ten) are tied for second in the Big Ten East, a game behind Ohio State – those rivals per usual close the regular season against one another: Nov. 27 in Ann Arbor. If Michigan wins out, I believe it will win the East because while fellow second-place Michigan State owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over U-M, I expect Sparty to lose at least once more (to Ohio State).
Coach Jim Harbaugh’s team bounced back from its Week 9 loss at Michigan State with a 29-7 beatdown of Indiana on Saturday. Michigan outgained the disappointing Hoosiers 411-195 with Hassan Haskins rushing 27 times for 168 yards and a score, his fourth 100-yard game of the year, and he has 11 rushing TDs. Cade McNamara threw two TD passes. Tight end Luke Schoonmaker caught in his first two touchdowns of the season, the first time a Wolverine tight end caught multiple touchdowns in a game since Jake Butt did so against UCF on Sept. 10, 2016.
Harbaugh usually has two good running backs in Haskins, a senior, and freshman Blake Corum, but Corum left in the first quarter with a lower-body injury and didn’t return. Harbaugh said he didn’t think it was serious. Corum has 778 yards rushing and 10 TDs on the year. Cornerback Gemon Green and receivers Andrel Anthony and A.J. Henning all left with undisclosed injuries as well.
Michigan has one of the best pass-rushing duos in college football in David Ojabo and Aidan Hutchinson. Ojabo got his Big Ten-leading fourth forced fumble of the season with a first-half strip-sack on Saturday, while Hutchinson had four QB hits. Those two have combined for 16 sacks, most of any Power 5 duo.
If this spread sticks, it’s the second time U-M will be an underdog this year. It was +2 at Wisconsin on Oct. 2 and won easily 38-17. The Wolverines are 0-6 against the spread in their past six vs. teams with a winning record.
Penn State Can Still Reach Major Bowl
Penn State (8-3, 3-3 Big Ten) is fourth in the Big Ten East and could make a New Year’s Six Bowl by winning out. Rumors continue to churn that Coach James Franklin is going to leave after this season for the open USC job.
The Lions snapped a three-game skid Saturday with a 31-14 win at Maryland, avoiding a trap game off a hard-fought loss to Ohio State. The game vs. the Terps was tied 14-14 early in the fourth but a Sean Clifford 86-yard TD pass to Jahan Dotson completely shifted the momentum. That tied for the fourth-longest pass play in program history. Dotson caught 11 passes for a school-record of 242 yards and three touchdowns. He tied career highs with the catches and TD grabs.
Dotson is the only Power Five receiver with at least 240 yards and three touchdowns in a game this season. He now has 2,507 career receiving yards, moving into fourth all-time at Penn State. His 22 career TD catches are third-most in school history.
Clifford had his third 300-yard game of the season, completing 27-of-47 passes for 363 yards and three touchdowns. It was Clifford’s sixth career 300-yard game, tied for third-most in school history.
Defensively, Penn State held Maryland to 48 rushing yards, the 38th time PSU has held its opponent under 100 rushing yards since 2014. Penn State is 32-6 in those games. Senior safety Ji’Ayir Brown was the star vs. the Terps with an 87-yard INT return for the game’s final score as well as a recovered fumble and nine tackles.
Brown’s four interceptions this season are the most by a PSU player since Amani Oruwariye had four in 2017. PSU has forced a turnover in 15 straight games. Two key defenders, captains Jesse Luketa (end) and Jonathan Sutherland (safety), both made the trip to Maryland but didn’t play because of injuries. They might play in this one.
This will be a “helmet stripe game” at Beaver Stadium, meaning a few sections of Penn State fans wearing blue surrounded by about 100,000 in white. The Lions are 8-2 ATS on the NCAAF odds in their past 10 Big Ten games, but simulations I have run have Michigan winning by a field goal.
NCAAF Pick: Michigan +1 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
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