Saturday night features a Big 10 showdown as Michigan invades Lincoln, Nebraska to take on the Cornhuskers. Let’s take a look at what the oddsmakers are dealing on this matchup and keep cashing our NCAAF picks!
Saturday, October 09, 2021 – 06:30 PM EDT at Memorial Stadium
Michigan is off to a flying start this season as they take their 5-0 record on the road and look to make it six straight wins when they meet their conference rivals, Nebraska. And the Wolverines have not just been winning, they have been decimating the competition, winning by an average of 27 points per contest.
Wolverines’ only real scare came in their fourth game against Rutgers when they were shut out in the second half while the Knights put 10 points on the board in what resulted in a 20-13 Michigan victory.
But as 20-point favorites, it was far from the convincing performance many believed they would see out of Big Blue but a win is a win unless you’re hoping for a cover. In fact, that was the only game in which Michigan failed to cash for their backers.
Last week, Michigan got right back on track when they steamrolled Wisconsin in the Badgers’ own playpen. The NCAAF odds on that contest saw the Wolverines as 1 ½ point road dogs but the game was never in doubt.
The Wolverines scored first and never trailed while the Badgers added a touchdown with 32 seconds to play which made the final score a bit more respectable at 38-17 than the lopsided mismatch that it was.
Michigan had lost their last five meetings in Madison and was trounced last year when they fell 49-11 in Ann Arbor. Wisconsin has traditionally run the ball up, over, and around Michigan but this year the defense was prepared and shut down the Badgers ground-and-pound attack as evidenced by their paltry 43 yards on 32 carries.
Nebraska enters this meeting with Michigan hot off the heels of an impressive 56-7 win over Northwestern last week.
Junior quarterback, Adrian Martinez, had three rushings and one passing touchdown while tossing for 202 yards on 11-of-17 passing. The Cornhuskers were relentless throughout the afternoon and the mistakes they had made in their previous two games were nowhere to be found last Saturday.
"We were using the last couple of weeks to fuel us this week," Martinez said. "A big play to open the game got the crowd behind us, and that initiated it. Tonight, we can say we executed the way we should."
"We’re a lot better team than we have been," Nebraska coach Scott Frost said. "This was one game. This is what I know this group can do. It’s a good first step. We can still get better."
Nebraska features a potent and balanced attack, averaging 266.5 yards through the air and 237.5 yards on the ground which ranks their rushing attack 14th in the nation. The team is scoring 32.7 PPG and the defense is allowing merely 15.5 points per game, good for 13th in that category.
I was actually a bit surprised that the Wolverines weren’t favored by more in this matchup. They have plenty of street cred coming into this one with an undefeated record and ranked No. 9 in the country while scoring a huge knockout over Wisconsin last week.
Those are the kinds of things that normally get the public to send it in on the household name and road favorite, especially when one considers their opponent is a pedestrian 3-3 on the season. But this early line is curiously low in my opinion, as we see Michigan -3 to -3 ½ depending on where you shop.
And as much as I thought we would find a value play on Nebraska; I have to take what the BMR best sportsbooks are giving me. If I can get Big Blue minus a field goal then I’ll take it. I don’t see Nebraska doing what they do best, running the ball, against a defense allowing only 115 yards per game and one that just crippled the Wisconsin rushing attack last week.
If the Huskers can’t run then I don’t see them keeping pace with the Wolverines. Nebraska has an excellent defense, but so do the Wolverines and I can’t count on their offense matching the well-coached Michigan attack. Let’s lay the field goal and cash a ticket!
NCAAF Pick: Michigan -3 (-115) at Intertops (visit our Intertops Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.