The Mets will head to the west coast this week on life support in the NL East, looking desperately for some wins to right the ship stop falling out of the playoff picture. The dilemma? Well, they’re going to play seven games against two behemoths beginning with a three-game set in San Francisco.
All the Giants have done is win 12 of 15 and solidify their spot atop the NL West, and after a short period of uncertainty have regained their footing and reminded the entire league that they’re legit and should be taken seriously. With great pitching sure to appear on both sides of the ball, we should be in for a fun series and an exciting opening game. Without further ado, let’s take a look into how you should bet this game over at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Monday, August 16, 2021 – 9:45 PM ET at Oracle Park
Just when you think it can’t get worse for the Mets, it does. The former NL East leaders are now stuck in third place, two and a half games behind the first-place Braves and a game and a half behind the Phillies for second. Their star shortstop, who they signed to a 10-year extension before the season, is still nursing an injury, their ace Jacob deGrom had a setback this week in his rehab, and trade deadline acquisition Javy Baez was put on the shelf last week.
To make matters worse, now the Mets have to play the San Francisco Giants, perhaps the best team in baseball, on the road, on no sleep. ESPN flexed Mets-Dodgers to Sunday Night Baseball on Sunday, meaning the Mets had to turn around at what was effectively midnight and fly to San Francisco, getting in in the early morning. They’ll be dealing with injuries, fatigue, jet lag, and enter on a three-game losing streak.
It should be noted that 41-year-old Rich Hill, whose body is probably not as well-equipped to deal with this as some of the younger players on the team, will get the ball on Monday. The team elected not to fly him out the night before, so he’ll likely be a zombie, just as the rest of the team will. He’s yet to last more than five innings, allow fewer than three runs or strike out more than four hitters in a start this year, and probably can’t be counted upon for a good outing given the circumstances here.
Since the break, the Mets have hit just .245 with a .156 ISO and 9.4% walk rate. The problem here isn’t immediately evident on offense, but it simply just seems to be that they’re not hitting enough home runs, or not hitting enough for power. The baserunners have been there, just not the results.
The arms have been the name of the game all year long for San Francisco, and this last stretch of two weeks has been no different. The Giants own just a 102 wRC+ over that span and the league’s 15th-ranked OPS. While this bunch is mighty capable of big hits, adding Kris Bryant at the deadline and getting a massive season from Buster Posey, it’s just been average on the whole over the last couple of weeks.
In that time, the Giants’ pitching staff owns a 3.32 ERA, the second-best mark in the league in that timeframe, and that number is backed by the third-best FIP at 3.69. Ranking just 18th in strikeouts per nine, the Giants have the second-lowest walk rate in the major leagues and have expertly pitched to contact and controlled the ball to limit runners.
Kevin Gausman, the starter on Monday, has done just that as well with 3.25 xERA entering this one. Together with a great bullpen, the Mets should have a hard time getting runners on base and doing damage against a guy that has just a 6.5% barrel rate. It should be more of the same for them.
For our MLB picks we need to consider, there’s too much working against the Mets here to believe they have any semblance of a chance, considering they’ll face one of the best pitchers in the game whose biggest strength combats theirs.
MLB Pick: Giants –1.5 (-103) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.