Mets vs. Reds Fourth of July MLB Picks and Preview (Archive)
The New York Mets were rooting for the Reds over the weekend. Now they’ll play against the Reds and look for another series win after defeating the Texas Rangers two games to one over the weekend. Can the Mets start off their road series against the Reds with a victory?
Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks! Here are our picks and predictions for today’s game between the Mets and Reds.
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
Monday, July 04, 2022 – 06:40 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
How Are the Mets Doing?
The New York Mets gained a game on the Atlanta Braves yesterday, after winning a home series over the Texas Rangers.
They’ll look to take that momentum and bring it on the road against the Cincinnati Reds tonight.
How Are the Reds Doing?
The Reds are currently just 27-51 on the season but knocked off the Braves in yesterday’s game to earn a much-needed win.
Who Is Pitching for the Reds Today?
The Cincinnati Reds will send out rookie pitcher Hunter Greene for the opening game of the series.
Greene is 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA, but don’t get it twisted. Greene has shown signs of stardom at times and is capable of putting together a very good outing.
In the last 30 days, Greene has had a 4.71 xFIP and he’s earning just 19% of ground balls while also allowing 27% of line drives. The one above-average stat for Greene is his strikeout rate, which is sitting at 28.4% in the last 30 days.
Who Is Pitching for the Mets Today?
On the other hand, it’ll be Taijuan Walker for the Mets.
Walker has been surprising this season, holding a 6-2 record with a 2.72 ERA. He made the All-Star team last season but was really bad in the second half of last year. So far, he’s rebounded nicely.
In the last 30 days, Walker has had a 3.45 xFIP with 24.8% of strikeouts and 6.4% of walks. He’s also inducing 52.3% of ground balls in that same timeframe.
Lineups Analysis
Cincinnati Reds
- The Reds have a .137 ISO and wOBA of .300 against righties in the last 30 days.
- Only Brandon Drury, Tommy Pham, and Albert Almora Jr. have above-average ISO numbers against righties in the last 30 days.
- Drury and Almora Jr. were both Mets not too long ago too.
- The Reds’ lineup has struck out 22.7% of the time in the last 30 days
- It has also hit 46% of ground balls in that same time frame.
- That should help Walker have success tonight.
New York Mets
- The Mets have a .156 ISO and wOBA of .287 against righties in the last 30 days.
- New York has earned just 4.4% of walks and has hit nearly 49% of ground balls with their projected lineup.
- Only Pete Alonso has solid numbers against righties.
- Alonso has a .441 ISO and wOBA of .466 in the last 30 days against righties.
Mets vs. Reds: Game Prediction
Neither lineup looks too appealing tonight. Pitching should rule in the first game of the series.
Mets' Lineup Against Hunter Greene
Greene has had his struggles but he’ll take on a Mets lineup that is slumping currently. The Mets have a below-average ISO, wOBA, K%, BB%, GB%, and LD% against righties in the last 30 days.
Greene has allowed a lot of power to both sides of the plate but ultimately, the Mets only have Pete Alonso and Eduardo Escobar hitting righties for power consistently right now.
Reds' Lineup Against Taijuan Walker
Meanwhile, Walker has been sensational for the Mets recently. He’s limited power from both sides of the plate but has allowed a higher weighted on-base average against lefties.
In the Reds' lineup, there will be just three lefties and no lefties that are doing crazy damage against righties anyway.
Walker should continue on with his success against the Reds but Greene should also be able to get through the Mets order without any problems.
MLB Betting Pick for Today
The total for tonight’s game is sitting at 9.5, meaning we’d need 10 runs to get an Over in this game. With two below-average lineups and two pitchers that should fare well in tonight’s matchup, the Under looks like the play in this game.
Walker has excelled this season and Greene has shown flashes of excellence this season. The Mets aren’t working out walks and are hitting below 20% of line drives in the last 30 days.
Again, for my MLB picks of the day, I’m taking a shot at the Under 9.5 between the Mets and the Reds.
MLB Pick: Under 9.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.