Mavericks vs. Warriors NBA Odds, Preview and Prediction (Archive)
The Dallas Mavericks (27-20) continue their surge against the Golden State Warriors (34-13) in the second half of a TNT double-header this Tuesday evening. The Warriors are 16-11 after their historic 18-2 start to the season.
Dallas has climbed out of a 16-18 hole to win 11 of their last 13 games, including a 99-82 win over the Warriors three weeks ago. Let’s go ahead and take a look at the NBA odds.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
Tuesday, January 25, 2022 – 10:00 PM EST at Chase Center
The Warriors (25-19-3 ATS) are a 3.5-point favorite over the Mavericks (24-22-1 ATS) at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks. Golden State is 15-8-2 ATS as a home favorite this season, the fifth-best record in the NBA. Can the Mavericks cover or pull off the upset on the road? Dallas is 20-12 ATS in conference games this season, the fourth-best record. Golden State is 12-12-2 ATS in conference games.
January 5 Recap: Mavericks 99, Warriors 82
When these teams last met, it was Luka Doncic’s third game back from injury. The Mavericks were just starting to get on a roll with their superstar back. Against the Warriors, Doncic had 26 points, seven rebounds, and eight assists, or a common night for him. But it was a low-scoring game for both teams, and it is one of only two games this season the Mavericks won without scoring 100 points.
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But the bigger story was Golden State scoring a season-low 82 points. Stephen Curry had an especially poor shooting game. He finished 5-of-24 from the field, 1-for-9 from three, and only scored 14 points with five turnovers.
This was also the last full game the Warriors had Draymond Green available for, but Curry could not find his shot. It is in a handful of games this season where Curry’s shot was abysmal, but it is unlikely that Dallas has any secret sauce to slow him down. Last season, Curry shot at least 50% in all three meetings with Dallas and even had a 57-point game.
But Curry’s shooting efficiency has been highly correlated to Golden State’s success this season. The Warriors are 25-1 (.962) this season when Curry shoots at least 39% from the field. Last season, that record was only 30-19 (.612). The only loss this year was five days ago in a 4-point loss to the Pacers where Curry scored 39 points, but the Warriors went ice cold in overtime. Curry missed all four of his overtime shots.
Both teams should be looking for a much better offensive performance than three weeks ago. Golden State held Dallas to 37.9% shooting and still lost by 17 points. Curry was not alone in his struggles. The Warriors had their most impotent three-point shooting game of the season, setting season lows in attempts (28), makes (five), and 3P% (.179).
Recent Play Favors Dallas
Since these teams last met, Golden State is 5-6 and Dallas is 9-2. Over the last 11 games, Dallas is No. 2 in Net Rating (plus-9.9), and Golden State is only No. 16 (plus-0.6). These teams are No. 1 and No. 2 in Defensive Rating during this 11-game stretch, so another low-scoring game could be on the horizon.
While that terrible three-point game in Dallas brings down the numbers, the Warriors are actually last in the league in 3P% (30.2%) over the last 11 games. The Mavericks, ranked 25th, are not lighting it up either, but the Warriors have failed to break 33.3% from three in nine of their last 11 games.
The Mavericks did not have Kristaps Porzingis in the last matchup. He is back and has averaged 16.6 points and 8.2 rebounds over his last five games. The Warriors have welcomed back Klay Thompson after a multi-year absence, but he is questionable to play with a knee injury. Even if Thompson plays, he is still feeling his way back into the game as he’s only shot 37.2% from the field so far. Green remains out for Golden State.
The Warriors just survived a very low-scoring fourth quarter (17-11) against Utah on Sunday in a 94-92 win. The Jazz was without Donovan Mitchell and only shot 38.3%. Curry had another off-shooting night, making 1-of-13 from three.
Despite Ja Morant’s 35 points, the Mavericks took care of Memphis in a 104-91 win on Sunday. Doncic was great with 37 points, his second-highest scoring game of the season. Dallas held Memphis to 37.4% shooting, so both defenses are coming in off a good game.
Prediction
The Mavericks have been playing better basketball than Golden State for several weeks now. While Golden State is a tough venue to play, it was just the other day when Indiana won in overtime there. Since then, the Warriors have grinded out 105-103 and 94-92 wins over Houston and Utah.
The Mavericks’ only loss in the last six games was against Phoenix, quite arguably the best team in the NBA. For my NBA picks, I am going to trust Doncic and the Mavericks to get the job done on the road against a team still missing Green this Tuesday.
NBA Pick: Mavericks +3 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
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