Mavericks vs. Jazz NBA Picks and Odds Breakdown (Archive)
The All-Star Break is over and the Dallas Mavericks are set to travel to Salt Lake City to play the Utah Jazz on Friday. The NBA odds indicate it should be a defensive game. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz
Friday, February 25, 2022 – 9:00 PM EST at Vivint Arena
Both Teams Not Completely Healthy
While the All-Star Break was kind to most teams in general, the Mavericks and Jazz are still not completely healthy as we head into the final 35 percent of the season. Tim Hardaway Jr. is still out for this Mavs team which is a loss for them offensively.
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While they have the depth to make up for Hardaway not being there, the Mavs’ swingman is still an important piece to the puzzle if the Mavs want to make a deep playoff run. On top of that, Reggie Bullock, who has played fantastic in Hardaway’s absence, is also questionable tonight.
If Bullock can’t play, the Mavs will be very short-handed on the wing, which is bad news against a team like Utah. On the other side, Rudy Gay is doubtful tonight with a non-Covid illness and his absence will force another member of the Jazz bench to have to take on more of an offensive load.
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All in all, neither of these injuries are back-breaking for either team, but they do downgrade things offensively enough to where there could be some value in this first-half line. If you watched my Pick of the Day video from Thursday, you’ll know we cashed the first half-line of Memphis versus Minnesota pretty easily because of a pair of dud offensive quarters, one by each team.
Being back from the break and most of these players taking a week off of basketball will likely make the first half kind of sloppy. Granted, these are two veteran teams whereas the Wolves and Grizzlies are pretty young, but that could play even more into our favor if the guys in their 30s who weren’t at the All-Star Game aren’t quite back in game shape yet.
It could hurt a play on the full game under because of tired legs late in the game, but in the first half at least, I’m banking on some turnovers and missed shots.
The Sharp Pick
The other factor working in our favor here is the pace of the first half. While Utah plays a little faster at home, the Mavs are generally pretty slow-paced regardless of where they play. If Dallas can grab the tempo and force Utah to slow things down, all while not having too many first-half turnovers, I think the pace of this first half could easily fall below 98 possessions per game.
If we get a combined sloppy and brick-laden first half, along with a slower pace, I think 111 points is a little generous by the sportsbooks for a first-half line, especially considering the full game total is just 216 points and has been plummeting since it opened at 219. While we missed the move on the full game, I think the better number may be the first half here.
NBA Pick: Under 111 1st Half (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.