The Mavericks head into the United Center on Wednesday to play the red-hot Chicago Bulls and NBA Odds have the Bulls as -3 ½ favorites.
Wednesday, November 10, 2021 – 08:00 PM EST at United Center
The main question for the Bulls coming into this game is who will slow down the Mavs’ superstar? It’s a tough question, but one I think the Bulls have the ability to do. The question still remains though; how will they do it? I think Javonte Green will get the first crack at Luka Doncic, however, it will almost certainly be a team effort for Billy Donovan’s Bulls.
Green’s defense has been pretty good so far this season and while he has been mismatched at times since his insertion into the starting lineup, he is quick enough to stay in front of Doncic tonight. However, stopping Luka is almost impossible. You can only hope to contain him enough where he can’t get off for 30 points AND get his teammates involved.
If you’re the Bulls tonight, you can still win and cover this game even if Doncic goes off for 30 points, but if he is dishing out dimes and getting his teammates easy buckets too, that makes it extremely hard for Chicago to cover here.
I think they take the lesser of two evils and choose to let Doncic go off. I expect Green, or DeMar DeRozan, or Lonzo Ball to be left on an island when they’re taking their turn against Luka.
That means the Bulls need to focus on slowing down the rest of the Mavs. Jalen Brunson has been incredible this season and Tim Hardaway and Kristaps Porzingis demand attention, but as long as those guys aren’t going for 20-plus points, the Bulls should win.
While I am leaning towards the Bulls laying points here, I think the better play is on the total at 215.5. The Bulls’ defense has been great this season, but their offense has gotten off to some slow starts. They rank 18th in first-half offensive efficiency and 21st in first-half defensive efficiency. If they aren’t ready to play tonight, the Mavs should win this game outright.
That being said, I think the Bulls’ defense will be engaged from the opening tip. This is a tough team coming in to the UC and the crowd should be pretty hyped to welcome Doncic and the Mavs to town.
So far this season, Chicago and Dallas’ full-game defenses have been great. Chicago ranks fourth in the NBA in defensive rating, while the Mavs have climbed their way up to 15th. More importantly for our play though is the expected pace. Chicago and Dallas play at paces less than 100 possessions per game and that should only help this total go under.
As long as Chicago can control the Mavs’ pace and Dallas doesn’t decide to start running all over the Bulls early, I think there will be enough defense for us to cash the under as our NBA pick.
NBA Pick: Under 215.5 at (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
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