Mavericks vs. Heat NBA Picks: Should You Bet Against Luka Dončić and Company? (Archive)
Two of the hottest teams in the NBA square off when the Dallas Mavericks head to Miami to take on the Heat. Both teams have been playing excellent basketball as of late, but which team is the right NBA pick?
Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat
Tuesday, February 15, 2022 – 07:30 PM EST at FTX Arena
Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks knew they had to make a change. In this case, they went for addition by subtraction by trading Kristaps Porziņģis for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans. While the two new additions don't have the high-profile name of Kristaps Porziņģis, the Mavericks hope that they will be able to help contribute as they make a playoff push. Both players are expected to make their debut for the Mavericks tonight.
In the two games since Porziņģis was traded, Luka Dončić has taken over the Mavericks' offense. Dončić scored 51 points against the Clippers on Thursday and then followed it up with a 45 point performance again against the Clippers. The Mavericks split those games with the Clippers.
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Dallas will face a tough test again tonight against the Miami Heat, who play very well at home. The Mavericks are average on the road as displayed by their 13-13 road record.
With Kristaps Porziņģis out of the picture, a bigger offensive role will be taken by Jalen Brunson. Brunson is the second-leading scorer on the Mavericks, averaging 16.1 points per game. He is an excellent shot creator and the Mavericks rely on him especially in the minutes when Luka Dončić is on the bench. Brunson should fill the hole left in Porziņģis' absence quite well, as he has risen to the occasion when needed many times this season.
Miami Heat
The Miami Heat are currently in possession of the number one seed in the Eastern Conference with a record of 37-20. Miami is excellent at home with a 19-6 record at FTX Arena. The Heat are happy that their second-leading scorer, Tyler Herro has returned to the lineup. Herro is good at creating his own shot as well as “catch and shoot” three-pointers. He is averaging 20 points per game this season.
Miami's defense is keyed by the versatility of center Bam Adebayo. Adebayo is an excellent defender at the rim or out on the perimeter. He also helps the defense by grabbing a team-high 10 rebounds per game. With Bam Adebayo providing such active defense, he leads the way for the rest of the team to succeed.
The Miami Heat can be deadly from behind the 3-point line. Miami is first in the NBA in 3-point percentage at 37.6%. That's not the only line that they are excellent behind though. Miami is also first in the league behind the free-throw line. The Heat lead the league in free throw percentage at 81.5%. With Miami's ability to knock down the open three as well as bury their free throws, the Heat are a tough team to contend with.
Other Eastern Conference teams made moves around the trade deadline, yet the Heat were quiet. With the team the Heat have assembled, they still are one of the favorites to win the Eastern Conference by NBA odds.
Key Matchup
Jimmy Butler vs. Luka Dončić. Jimmy Butler is the leading scorer of the Heat, but tonight they will need his defensive prowess. Butler is a relentless competitor and he loves the challenge of going against the opposing team's best scorer. Tonight he will face the challenge of going up against the red-hot Luka Dončić, who is averaging 48 points per game over his last two games.
If Jimmy Butler is able to once again prove his defensive chops and shut down one of the NBA's best, the Heat will improve their already impressive home record.
If Dončić has another big night, the Mavericks can get a statement win on the road.
Best Bet
As well as the Mavericks and Luka Dončić are playing, I like the Heat to get it done here tonight. The Heat have one of the best defenses in the NBA and they should be able to show multiple defensive looks in order to slow down Luka Dončić. Not to mention they do have the ability to just put Jimmy Butler one on one against Luka to stop the Mavericks' best weapon.
The Heat will continue their excellent home streak against a Mavericks team who is simply average on the road. Tonight's best bet is the Miami Heat -5.5.
NBA Pick: Miami Heat -5.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.