When an NHL playoff series is tied 1-1, the winner of Game 3 usually takes the series. That’s where we are for the Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens matchup Monday. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Monday, May 24, 2021 – 07:00 PM EDT – at Bell Centre
There have been no fans allowed at NHL games in Canada this season – of course, the country had its own division – and will not be any here, either. However, if it gets to Game 6, which I tend to think it will, then 2,500 fans will be allowed in Montreal. That’s about 12 percent of capacity of the Bell Centre. With the series tied 1-1, the Maple Leafs are -225 favorites on the NHL futures odds at BMR’s top-rated books and Montreal +195. I thought Toronto had a good chance of reaching the Stanley Cup Finals but am off that due to the scary injury suffered by arguably the team’s second-best player, John Tavares.
Because of that Tavares injury, I’m surprised BetOnline has the favored exact series result as Leafs winning in five at +265. The long shot is Canadiens in five at +900. The over/under series total games is 5.5 with the over a -300 favorite and the under +240.
Montreal, which had the lowest regular-season point total and worst goal differential among all playoff teams, stole Game 2-1 on Thursday in Toronto but then was dominated 5-1 in Game 2 on Saturday. Jesperi Kotkaniemi’s first goal of the playoffs gave the Habs a 1-0 lead at 7:57 of the first but then it was all Toronto. Kotkaniemi was a healthy scratch for Game 1 but replaced the injured Jake Evans in the Game 2 lineup. Evans is being called day-to-day. He had three goals and 10 assists in 47 regular-season games. The 20-year-old Finn Kotkaniemi started the game on a line with Paul Byron and Artturi Lehkonen.
The Canadiens are frankly lucky that top defenseman Shea Weber will be allowed to play in Game 3. He was not suspended but fined $5,000, the maximum allowable under the Collective Bargaining Agreement, for cross-checking Maple Leafs forward Wayne Simmonds during Game 2. Montreal took seven minor penalties in the game, which is way too many. Carey Price was very sharp in Game 1 but allowed four goals on 33 shots in Game 2. Before Game 1, he hadn’t played in an NHL game since April 19 due to a concussion. There’s no talk of using backup Jake Allen instead of Price for Game 3. Nor should there be. Montreal is 0-4 on NHL picks in its past four games after scoring two goals or fewer in its previous game. The Habs are 5-2 in their past seven on Monday, however.
We mentioned John Tavares above, and the Toronto forward is going to miss at least two weeks because of a concussion suffered on a scary but accidental hit in Game 1 and also a knee injury. The knee injury is similar to the sprained MCL sustained by Toronto forward Zach Hyman on April 18 according to GM Kyle Dubas. Hyman didn’t get back until Game 1. Tavares had 19 goals and 31 assists in the regular season. Thankfully, he has been cleared of all structural damage to his head, neck and spine.
"The knee injury you can give a timeline on, but the head injury and concussion, it’s very difficult to place a timeline on when someone’s going to return from that. We handle those conservatively and sensitively. We will follow those protocols to a T with that," Dubas said. Forwards Alex Galchenyuk (a former Canadien) and Pierre Engvall drew into the Game 2 lineup for Tavares and center Riley Nash. Toronto was 2-for-6 on the power play in Game 2 and was shorthanded just once, and Montreal didn’t score on that. The Leafs outshot the Habs 34-23 and dominated the faceoff circle in winning 66.1 percent of them.
Auston Matthews, who led the NHL this season in goals, was the No. 1 star with a goal and two assists – his goal at 5:15 of the second would prove to be the winner. William Nylander had the lone Leafs goal in Game 1 and had one in Game 2 as well. Jack Campbell allowed one goal on 23 shots. Presumably, the Leafs will stick with him over Frederik Andersen. Montreal had won nine straight playoff games vs. the Leafs. Toronto’s last postseason win in the series was to win the 1967 Stanley Cup in Game 6. That’s the last time the franchise won the Cup, the longest drought in the league. Toronto is 23-9 on the NHL odds in its past 32 after a win.
NHL Pick: Leafs at -138 with BookMaker