Last Chance Value Picks for NFL Week 8 (Archive)
In the last three weeks, it’s been harder to find value. Sportsbooks have lost to the public badly in the last three weeks, with favorites winning at a premium rate. The public is winning and that’s never good when looking for value. The public doesn’t look for value. They look for favorites.
This week, things are about to change. Sportsbooks are about to win some money back and to find value, we’ll have to side with the sportsbooks this week. Let’s see the NFL odds.
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, October 31, 2021 – 01:00 PM EDT at FirstEnergy Stadium
The Cleveland Browns are just 3.5 point favorites against the Steelers, at home and that’s pretty telling. Of course, the entire public is going to rock with the Browns with Baker Mayfield back under center. He’ll have targets like Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry. But at the end of the day, the Browns really want to run the football down the Steelers’ throat. However, the Steelers’ defense is no pushover.
They’ve looked solid against the run this season and have really always looked good against the run with Mike Tomlin as head coach. The Steelers are allowing 107.7 yards per game on the ground this year and while the coverage has been a bit off this year, the defense is still allowing under 370 yards per game. The Steelers have won two straight games against Denver and Seattle and while those wins aren’t huge resume builders, they’re absolutely momentum builders.
If the Browns struggle to run the ball against the Steelers, the Browns will be forced into third and longs and against any defense that’s hard to convert every single time. There’s value on the Steelers on the money line at +170. This is a trap game for Cleveland. The Steelers have been prepared recently and that will continue in this game.
NFL Pick: Steelers +170 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Washington Football Team vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, October 31, 2021 - 04:25 PM EDT at Empower Field
The Denver Broncos are 3-4 on the year with wins against the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets. After those three wins, they’ve got four losses. Nothing is exciting about wins against three of the worst teams in the league. Prior to last week’s 17-14 loss against a Browns team that really didn’t have much talent on their squad offensively, the Broncos had allowed 23, 27, and 34 points to their opposition.
The defense isn’t nearly as good as advertised and the offense is putting up just 20 points per game. Meanwhile, Washington could’ve to beat the Packers except they made dumb mistakes in the red zone countless times. Washington will revisit those mistakes and won’t make the same mistakes twice in the red zone. Against the Packers, Washington moved the ball down the field easily and just struggled to finish drives.
Against Denver, that won’t be the case. Most teams as of late have been able to score with ease against Denver. So forget that Denver is allowing 18.1 points per game and understand that they’ve allowed much more per game in their four-game losing streak.
NFL Pick: Washington Football Team (+155) with BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.