We are ready for the second Sunday of NFL football. Our mission, find selections that offer value. Not sure what “value” is or what it means, let us explain. In trying to find value in making NFL picks, first, you have to understand what it means. Essentially you want to seek value in finding the best point spread or total for games that would place you in the most advantageous spot to win. If you like an underdog you want to be on the right side of the key numbers 3, 6, and 7. In other words +3.5, +6.5, and +7.5. The opposite would be true if you prefer the favorite, then you want to be on -2.5, -5.5, and -6.5 against the NFL odds.
For totals, the most common outcomes are 41 points, 37, and 44. Depending on if you want the Over or Under, the same logic applies to enhance the value. The other value option is situational, where your choice against the oddsmakers has a decided edge in one or more areas that should enable them to cover the spread. Always consider this when making selections, this writer does.
Sunday, Sept 19, 2021 – 1:00 PM EDT at Lincoln Financial Field
With just under 10 minutes left in the game at Detroit, San Francisco held a 41-17 lead over the Lions they looked like they would cover the -9.5 with ease. The 49ers eased up and the Lions Jared Goff led two 8-point scoring drives in the final 113 seconds to cover through the backdoor. Philadelphia stuffed the Falcons for four quarters in routing them 32-6 as 3.5-point road underdogs leading up to this clash.
The Niners opened at -4 and at last look, they were -3 versus the Eagles. San Francisco has an edge with the stronger offensive line. Philly’s defensive front is known for sacks, but if San Fran can stay on schedule, that would lead to several 3rd and three or shorter, and coach Kyle Shanahan has a boatload of ways to convert those.
Jalen Hurts played well last week, however, Atlanta is not San Francisco. The Eagles are 2-7 ATS after holding teams to 150 or fewer passing yards and 1-6 ATS after a spread winner.
NFL Pick: 49ers -3 (-110) with BookMaker (visit our BookMaker Review)
Sunday, Sept 19,2021 - 1:00 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium
Each of these AFC East clubs lost last week, just in completely different ways. New England had the ball for over 36 minutes against Miami, gained 393 yards, yet only scored 16 points. The Patriots committed two fatal turnovers. The Jets had just 252 yards of offense and averaged a mere 4.7 yards a play which included 2.5 YPP rushings. While New England outgained the Dolphins by 134 yards, Gang Green basically had the reverse happen to them with Carolina outgaining them by 129 yards.
Both clubs are using rookie quarterbacks which is partly why they had trouble scoring. That aside, the difference in personnel is dramatic. The Flyboys have often been a pest for the Pats at home, but with New England off of a setback, they are 32-15 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite and take care of business.
NFL Pick: Patriots -6 (-110) with BookMaker
Sunday, Sept 19, 2021 - 4:25 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
Almost immediately liked the value of Dallas at +3 going to Los Angeles to face the Chargers. This is the Bolts’ first contest playing in front of fans at SoFi, yet, it’s safe to say they have no home-field advantage and there will be lots of Cowboy fans there. Dak Prescott played awesome in his return, moving Dallas up and down the field against the Super Bowl champs last week. The Chargers, led by QB Justin Herbert, also moved the pigskin on Washington, they just encountered too many red-zone breakdowns.
Honestly, despite L.A. rising to -3.5, we have concerns with the Boys missing pass rushers to get in Herbert’s grill. Nonetheless, we believe coach Mike McCarthy will make sure Ezekiel Elliott kick starts the running game, which will help Prescott and let his team control the ball and keep the defense off the field. The Bolts are 0-8 ATS after a contest of holding the ball for 34+ minutes and ringing up 24+ first downs.
NFL Pick: Cowboys +3.5 (-110) with BookMaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.