Last Chance Value Picks for NFL Week 11 (Archive)
The NFL has been extremely interesting this season. The public always seems to get torched while the sharps eat up all the value. So instead of thinking like the public, let’s think like a sharp. What would a sharp bettor bet right now? Let’s see the NFL odds.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants
Monday, November 22, 2021 – 08:15 PM EST at Raymond James Stadium
On Monday Night Football, the entire world is going to expect offense. It’s a nationally televised game and the public certainly doesn’t like to bet the under. Especially with Tom Brady under center. Therefore, the under might be the way to go. The Buccaneers have lost two straight games to the Saints and Football Team.
The Saints had to play with Trevor Siemian while the Football Team used Taylor Heinicke. Those aren’t two premier quarterbacks and yet the Buccaneers struggled defensively. After those two losses, you can expect the defense to get back in shape on national television.
Meanwhile, the Giants have allowed 20 or fewer points in the last three games. One of those games was against a Chiefs offense that is starting to get back on track after playing the Giants. You can get under 24.5 in the first half at +115. Even at -110, it makes sense.
The Giants are averaging less than 20 points per game while the Buccaneers are coming off a two-game losing streak. You know the defense is going to show up and the Giants defense has been very good recently too, allowing just 24 points per game so take this into consideration next time you look into our NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Under 24.5 first half (+115) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, November 21, 2021 - 04:25 PM EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
I haven’t given out a player prop as a value play yet. But I found one that I love. You can find Patrick Mahomes under 27.5 completions at -110 right now. Mahomes is coming off a 35-for-50 game against the Las Vegas Raiders after throwing for 406 yards. He was a stud in that game and really proved doubters wrong.
However, the offense isn’t going to have the ball nearly as much in this game as they’re competing against the Dallas Cowboys. The time of possession will absolutely get shorter with Dallas going to work and when the Chiefs are on offense, they’re going to look to score early on possession with deep balls and whatnot.
Mahomes only has 28 or more completions in four of his 10 starts and we’re getting a -110 on this bet. The chances he completes 28 passes are slimmer than you’d think. And again, with the Cowboys’ offense dominating time of possession and scoring plenty, the Chiefs are going to want to trade points and trade fast.
We’re going to see more big plays down the field than short plays and the Chiefs might even try to run the ball a little bit. For my best bets, I’ll roll with Patrick Mahomes to go under his passing completions of 27.5. This will be one of the more exciting games to watch and it’ll be fun to have some skin in it.
NFL Pick: Patrick Mahomes under 27.5 passing completions (-110) with BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.