The weekend is approaching and it’s a big one with the first full Sunday of NFL action. My goodness, we have been waiting for this and it is finally here. Life is good! The NFL lines have been out for months. Sharp bettors pounded what they wanted early.
With the actual games starting this week, the masses have started to really work the betting odds, and we’ve had further alterations of the NFL odds. Our job for this article and in the weeks to come is to take one final look at the top online sportsbooks numbers and determine, at least in this writer/handicapper’s opinion, what the best values are going into the first weekend of the National Foot League.
Sunday, September 12, 2021 – 01:00 PM EDT at FedExField
There is a great deal of support coming for Washington in this one, as they were flipped from +2 to -1. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 65 to 70 percent of tickets punched are on the Football Team. As to why this is the case, a lot of bettors, and rightfully so, have far more trust in Ron Rivera as a coach than first-year rookie Brandon Staley. That makes sense.
Another reason is the Washington stop troops, which were No. 2 in total defense. It is not like the Chargers were terrible, ranked 10th, and having suffered some meaningful injuries, it is strictly WTF tacklers were better. Here is what we wonder, in a quarterback-driven league, would you rather have Justin Hebert or a 38-year Ryan (FitzMagic- on occasion) Fitzpatrick? Don’t worry about an early start either, L.A.’s had a month to prepare for it.
NFL Pick: Chargers +1 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Sunday, September 12, 2021 - 01:00 PM EDT at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Both these teams with bird nicknames are not expected to fly anywhere near .500 this season. Each has new head coaches and staff and is looking to build for the future. The total on this tilt is 48.5. Neither the Philadelphia nor Atlanta defense was very good a season ago, ranked 20th and 19th respectively in points allowed. Expectations are for more of the same putting in new systems.
However, not really sure either offense can take advantage of the weaknesses they could face. Jalen Hurts has much to prove and given the supporting cast and his apparent flaws, that won’t be easy to do. Atlanta’s Matt Ryan is 36 years old and the tools around him are far less than what he’s had in the past.
Plus, here is a football system that applies to both teams; Play Under on any team when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the first two weeks of the year, after closing out last season with six or more losses in their last eight games, against an opponent who completed their previous season in the same exact manner. This system is a combined 22-4 UNDER which works for NFL picks.
NFL Pick: UNDER 48.5 (-105) with Bovada
Sunday, September 12, 2021 - 01:00 PM EDT at Ford Field
One of the supposed rules of the opening week of NFL football and don’t back any number that is greater than a touchdown. (See Tampa Bay Thursday) That is the case in this matchup between San Francisco and Detroit where the 49ers are at -7.5. That is not to say the oddsmakers are wrong. San Francisco is 20 months removed from playing in the Super Bowl, a game they could have easily won but didn’t against Kansas City.
The 49ers also suffered a plethora of injuries last season on both sides of the ball. And though Jimmy Garoppolo was hardly a good quarterback a year ago, he knows how to run this team when everyone, including him, is healthy. The Dan Campbell era kicks off for Detroit with new quarterback Jared Goff.
Expectations are lower than usual for this sorry franchise with a season win total of 4.5 or 5, depending on the sportsbook. Nonetheless, even a team as supposedly as bad as the Lions are supposed to be this year, catching more than a TD at home should have a shot to cover the spread. That is why instead, we’ll say the Niners’ defense holds Detroit intact and moves the ball on the ground, and covers the -4.5 on the first half-line.
NFL Pick: 49ers -4.5 First Half (-110) with Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.