Lakers vs. Bucks NBA Picks and Odds Analysis (Archive)
The Lakers have been anything but a title contender this season, but are they finally being undervalued against the defending champions? Let’s see the NBA odds.
L.A. Lakers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Wednesday, November 17, 2021 – 07:30 PM EST at Fiserv Forum
Lakers Market Correction May Be Complete
Throughout most of the season, give or take a game or two, the Lakers have been an automatic fade for me. They started the season as the favorites to win the title, basically for no reason other than their name, history, and LeBron James. As we’ve gotten 15 percent or so through the season, the markets have started to course correct.
LA is 5-10 ATS this season and some of those games they have barely covered. Needless to say, if you had faded the Lakers in every game this season, you’re feeling pretty happy about yourself. However, the Bucks have had their issues too. Missing starters for most of the year and playing below expectations, the Bucks haven’t been much better ATS at just 6-8.
So, as we enter this game, it surprised me to see the Lakers as such large underdogs. Watching them has been tough this season and their ability to stay in a game for all four quarters has been a struggle, but they are being undervalued here for a few reasons. Mainly, the market has gone a bit too far with their course correction.
LA is still a very good defensive team, despite their struggles on offense. This same thinking goes true for the Bucks as well. However, instead of betting the under here and risking a very fast-paced game, I’m actually betting on the Lakers for the first time this season.
The Sharp Pick
With Khris Middleton finally making his return to the court for Milwaukee, I think a lot of bettors will look at this as an easy win opportunity for the Bucks. They may not be wrong, but nine is a lot of points regardless of the opponent. James is still out for this game, but the Lakers just got back Talen Horton-Tucker, who is one of the more exciting young players in the NBA.
He alone won’t be enough to cover this spread, but at least for the first half, I like the Lakers here. LA owns the sixth-best first-half defense in the NBA on the road. That will play tonight as the Lakers get more desperate to win games. The Bucks on the other hand have the 21st ranked home offensive rating in first halves and while getting Middleton back will help that tonight, the Bucks’ swingman hasn’t played in an NBA game in nearly three weeks.
It’s possible he is either rusty, out of shape, or the team needs a little while to gel back together after playing so many games without him.
Even a combination of just two of those three things may be all we need to cash the first-half spread with the Lakers here. As long as their defense shows up early and often, for my NBA picks, I think they keep this game within two possessions early.
NBA Pick: Lakers 1st Half +5.5 (-105) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.