Top NCAAF Pick: Under 50 (-111) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The 2023 College Football regular season is now behind us, as we have reached the most exciting time of the year in Bowl Season.
We are kicking things off on the first day of the bowl season with the side and total in the LA Bowl between UCLA and Boise State.
Let’s dive into the odds and see what we can do with them at our main offshore sportsbooks.
UCLA Bruins vs. Boise State Broncos
Saturday, December 16, 2023 – 07:30 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
While we concede that UCLA may be lacking motivation in this game, as long as the defense shows up, we like the Bruins to put the stops on what has been a potent Boise State rushing attack and are thus betting on the Bruins as small favorites.
Run Defense the Key
Now, we totally get that UCLA is probably not too excited about having to play on the first day of bowls. They had loftier goals in mind following a 6-2 start, but they stumbled home losing three of their last four games to finish 7-5, and are now not even traveling for their bowl game, with Sofi Stadium just a bit over 20 miles away from their home in the Rose Bowl.
UCLA was plagued by inconsistent offense while going through four quarterbacks this year, but they are now committed to Ethan Garbers at quarterback this game after Dante Moore entered the transfer portal. We see that as a good thing though, as we thought Garber was their most effective quarterback this year while completing 66.4% of his passes for 984 yards with nine touchdown passes and just three interceptions.
We feel Garber gives the Bruins a chance to score some points here after scoring 10 points or less in each of their last three losses, especially against a vulnerable Boise State secondary, ranked 113th in the county in passing defense. But besides expected improvement by the offense, we feel the biggest key to a UCLA win would be the defense, more specifically the run defense.
Stepping Up Without Best Receiver
Boise State fired coach Andy Avalos when sitting at 5-5 after 10 games, and the Broncos have promptly gone 3-0 under interim coach Spencer Danielson, including a 44-20 thumping of UNLV in the Mountain West Championship Game. However, Boise suffered the biggest casualty of these two teams to the transfer portal, losing leading receiver Eric McAlister and his 873 receiving yards on 18.8 yards per reception.
Granted, the Broncos have been winning with a rejuvenated rushing attack under interim coach Danielson, rushing for over 300 yards in two of the three wins. But the UCLA defense is a huge step up from the Mountain West defenses Boise State has faced. The Bruins have played at an elite level defensively all year, ranking 11th in the country in total defense and third in rushing defense, allowing a mere 69.6 rushing yards per game.
The Pick
If that defense comes into play, we do not see the recent Boise State rushing dominance continuing, especially with the absence of McAlister allowing UCLA to crowd the box with little fear of getting beaten over the top. Thus, bet UCLA as favorites of less than a field goal.
Predicted Score: UCLA 27 – Boise State 17
NCAAF Pick: UCLA -2.5 (-106) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Bettin the Total
While we do expect some offensive improvement from UCLA with Garber under center in terms of scoring enough points to win the game and cover the spread, it is not as if we are suddenly expecting an offensive explosion (see our predicted score).
The Bruins were able to move the ball this year yardage-wise, but continuously bogged in the red zone regardless of who the quarterback was, ranking 80th in the country in points scored with 25.7 per game. The offensive issues do not fall entirely on quarterback play, however, as this is a team lacking in playmakers.
And, as already mentioned, we do not expect the recent Boise State offensive surge to continue, now facing an elite defense and playing without their best wide receiver, thus being unable to stretch the defense.
The Pick
Thus, we are adding to our LA Bowl portfolio with an Under bet as well as our UCLA play.
NCAAF Pick: Under 50 (-111) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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