Kentucky vs. Kansas NCAA Basketball Picks and Odds Analysis (Archive)
The Kentucky Wildcats will visit the Kansas Jayhawks for the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. The point total is high for both of these offenses, but are oddsmakers forgetting about both teams and their defense? Let’s break down the NCAAB odds for this game.
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Saturday, January 29, 2022 – 6:00 PM EST at Allen Fieldhouse
Today’s slate will feature a lot of SEC teams playing Big 12 teams. This is part of the SEC/Big 12 Challenge that happens every year in the middle of conference play. I don’t love the timing of this tournament but love the matchups that we get to watch.
Kentucky against Kansas is always a classic. Both teams are currently ranked in the top 25 in the AP Poll and are two very good teams. The Kentucky Wildcats have won five of their last six games while Kansas is on a five-game winning streak.
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Neither team losses very often but one team will have to take on a loss tonight. Kentucky’s been a terrific offense, but the Wildcats might not even be the better offense in this game. The Wildcats shoot a 54.7 percent effective field goal percentage while limiting turnovers to 17.1 percent per game.
The Wildcats are super effective on the glass, earning 39.2 percent offensive rebounds. However, Kentucky doesn’t get to the line a whole lot. Kentucky is also shooting 34.9 percent from three and 55.7 percent from inside the arc of the year.
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Meanwhile, Kansas is an above-average defense but nothing more than that if we’re being honest. The Jayhawks have held opponents to a 47.9 percent effective field goal percentage, which includes 31.3 percent from three and 48.5 percent from two.
The Jayhawks are much better offensively, shooting a 55.6 percent effective field goal percentage. Kansas is just as good on the offensive glass, earning 35.9 percent of offensive rebounds and the Jayhawks are shooting 36.6 percent from three and 56 percent from inside the arc.
The only problem here for Kansas is that Kentucky’s got the better numbers defensively. Kentucky should be able to limit the offensive rebounds a bit more and the Wildcats have also held opponents to just a 46 percent effective field goal percentage.
Prediction
Neither team is going to shoot a large number of threes in this game. Despite both offenses being in the top five according to KenPom, three-point shots aren’t going to be easy to come by knowing both teams have limited opponents to under 31.5 percent this season.
Kentucky is earning just 23.7 percent of its points from deep while Kansas is only earning 28.5 percent of its points from deep. Plus, Kentucky and Kansas are below average at getting to the line. Kansas makes offenses work a little bit harder as well.
At this point, both teams are going to be shooting a ton of shots inside and possessions will take longer to develop. For my NCAAB picks, currently, I’m looking at the total and see 152. I like the under. I see both teams reaching 60 but 70 might be pushing it.
NCAAB Pick: Under 152 (-110) with BetOnline (visit BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.