Jazz vs. Suns NBA Picks and Predictions for Monday (Archive)
The Utah Jazz could not overcome the Golden State Warriors on Sunday night despite a hard-fought effort. Now on the road again, on a back-to-back and potentially without several starters, the Phoenix Suns are huge NBA odds favorites against them on Monday.
Utah Jazz vs. Phoenix Suns
Monday, January 24, 2022 – 09:00 PM EST at Footprint Center
Jazz Injury Concerns and Question Marks
Since Donovan Mitchell went down with injury, the Jazz have looked a little suspect. Their offense has been inconsistent as they labor without their top scorer and while their defense remains good without him, that may not be the case here on Monday.
Utah might also be without Rudy Gobert. The Jazz big man was questionable last night heading into their game against the Warriors and now he is questionable again after suffering a strained calf in Sunday’s game.
To add insult to literal injury, Bojan Bogdanovic is almost certainly questionable Monday as well after he suffered a knee contusion last night on a collision late in the game.
Coming off a game last night is hard enough, but without their best player and potentially without their second-best player and their best shooter, things could get ugly for Utah in the desert.
Utah has also played one of the league’s easier schedules to date and now they are a little hurt and heading into one of their toughest stretches of the season.
The Suns aren’t without their own injury concerns, but after playing Saturday, they are much better rested and recovered. Deandre Ayton likely won’t play tonight with an ankle sprain and Murray State legend, Cameron Payne is also out for this game due to a wrist sprain.
While Ayton’s absence hurts the Suns, it may actually help their defense. Bismack Biyombo and JaVale McGee have both been playing well in his absence and if Gobert can’t play tonight, that will only increase the Suns’ interior advantage over the banged up Jazz.
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The Sharp Pick
However, with so much offense missing and with a tough defensive opponent waiting for the Jazz, I can’t see Utah scoring too many points in this one coming off a poor offensive but good defensive effort against the Warriors.
Without Mitchell on the court this season, the Jazz are seven points per 100 possessions worse offensively than with him on the court and their defense actually improves by more than five points when Mitchell sits as well.
The story is similar tonight if Gobert sits. When Gobert isn’t on the court, the Jazz offense gets five points per 100 possessions worse and their defense is seven points per 100 possessions worse.
Much like Sunday night, the NBA oddsmakers are simply not giving this total enough of a dip to account for Utah on a back-to-back and potentially missing several key pieces.
The total has started to drop some, but considering it’s still well above 220 points, I’m adding the under to my NBA picks for Monday’s short card.
Phoenix owns the second-best home defense in the NBA, allowing just 103.9 points per 100 possessions. With a tired and banged up Jazz team coming to town, we could see another lower scoring game like Sunday night, so add the under to your NBA picks tonight and let’s cash this ticket!
NBA Pick: Under 222 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.