Jaguars vs. Seahawks Free NFL Picks for Week 8 (Archive)
The top-rated sportsbooks have Seattle as a mere three-point home favorite according to their NFL odds against a team that is 1-20 SU in their 21 tries. Pretty crazy right? But how crazy? Keep reading to get some expert insights to help you make the right NFL pick. Let’s dig in.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, October 31, 2021 – 04:05 PM EDT at Lumen Field
After losing 20 in a row, the second-longest losing streak in NFL history, Jacksonville tries to make it two in a row in the win column when visiting Seattle.
It has been all smiles around the Jaguars front offices the last two weeks as they finally ended their long losing streak. For many, that signifies progress under Urban Meyer as head coach and gives them hope that even better days are ahead.
Seattle has lost three in a row and five of six and all of a sudden, Pete Carroll’s infectious enthusiasm has come into question now that he is 70 years old. The Seahawks’ current problems are a manifestation of being good for so long and all those years of lower draft choices and too many misses on those chosen have caught up to them with no Russell Wilson to cover up those mistakes.
Jaguars Prospects to Cover and Possibly Win
Though it appears impossible Jacksonville would be this short of an underdog, if you follow the numbers, it is surprising.
On most power rating models, the Jaguars should be at least a six-point underdog. However, if you look at the statistics, Jacksonville is better at running the ball (10 vs. 16 in the NFL) and passing the ball (19 vs. 28) than the Seahawks. Plenty of people will look at Russell Wilson getting hurt, but he played in 18+ quarters of the 28 Seattle have been asked to play.
In terms of yards allowed, Jacksonville is 30th in total defense, with Carroll’s crew 31st, and the only reason the Jags have conceded 5.7 more points a game is Seattle’s defense is more stout when the opposing team gets inside their 30-yard line.
Jacksonville can make this close and possibly win because they have the better quarterback in Trevor Lawrence versus Geno Smith.
Seattle Needs to Reclaim Home Field Edge
Maybe it’s the continual name changes where Seattle plays, but the mighty “12th man” edge the Seahawks had for years has disappeared with a 0-3 SU and ATS start this season.
The once incredible ‘Legion of Boom” defense is a distant memory and except for stretches of certain seasons, the offensive line and running backs have not stayed healthy or been overly productive. Adding Smith as the starting quarterback into the mix is also problematic. This is not all Smith’s fault because if any NFL backup QB is asked to play multiple games, that exposes why he holds his roster spot.
The Seattle offensive coaches have to set the offense to run the ball and place Smith in his most comfortable throws to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The Hawks’ defense has played with greater intensity since Wilson was hurt and that can only help. As much as anything, the Seahawks have to give their fans a reason to be loud and proud to affect the game.
And The Winner Is…
For NFL picks, a few things to point out. Though the point spread mechanically makes sense, it still feels awfully cheap. Jacksonville does have the QB edge and matches up comparatively to Seattle, yet there are other weighty factors.
We start with Seahawks players expecting to win and having not won at home is an insult to them, which should provide extra motivation. Jacksonville finally got over the hump but is that enough especially knowing they took down Miami who has lost six in a row. After a team in any sport has dropped that many games, they have to learn how to win and figure out the formula.
Pete Carroll’s teams are 15-2 ATS after two or more consecutive losses, while Jacksonville is 4-15 ATS in road games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two straight contests.
NFL Free Pick: Seattle -3 (-115) at Intertops (visit our Intertops Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.