Heading into the 2022 season, Illinois was seen as one of the best teams in the Big Ten. So far, they’ve lived up to the hype. They are currently first in the conference with a strong resume that could boost their seeding in the NCAA Tournament.
Wednesday, February 16, 2022 – 07:00 PM EST at Jersey Mike’s Arena
Kofi Cockburn has been elite for the Fighting Illini, and he looks like one of the best players in the Big Ten. With things going well, there is no reason to think Illinois can’t go on a deep run this postseason.
However, the race in the Big Ten is close, and every game matters. This week, Illinois will play Rutgers on the road. A road loss against Rutgers could push Illinois out of the driver’s seat, so this game carries more weight than a traditional Big Ten matchup on a Wednesday.
Rutgers is favored by 4 points despite playing on the road, but can they cover the spread? Will Rutgers pull off an upset at home against the ranked Illinois Fighting Illini? Here are keys for each team and a free college basketball pick for you.
These two teams played each other earlier this year, and Illinois cooked Rutgers. The Fighting Illini can’t expect to win by such a large margin, but they could easily cover the spread at the NCAAB odds.
To do so, they need perimeter shots to fall. This has been a focal point all year for Illinois, and they don’t shoot enough inside to make up for poor perimeter shooting. If they can’t hit shots and spread the floor, it will be hard to run up the score.
Hitting free throws has also been a concern for Illinois. For such a solid team, they aren’t reliable at the charity stripe. This could be exacerbated by the hostile environment, so Illinois needs to knock down more free throws to keep the crowd from getting too loud.
Kofi Cockburn is a great player, and he will be the key piece on offense. Interestingly, he goes against most of what Illinois likes to do. He shoots seven more shots inside than the second-highest player, and he never shoots from three. He also takes the most free throws, so he personally needs to knock these down.
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Rutgers needs to run Illinois off the line when they close out. They can’t let Illinois have room and rhythm when they take perimeter shots. Thankfully, Rutgers has a solid defense that should be able to compete in this one.
The real question is how Rutgers will keep up with Cockburn in the paint. They have to remain physical to keep him from being comfortable. They should double the post and force him to kick out. They can scramble from there, but Cockburn is too good to defend with one player.
Even if you foul a few times, Cockburn isn’t a guarantee from the free-throw line. This is an efficient way to keep this one close, but you’d love to get him in foul trouble on the other end to put him on the bench.
We’ll see if Rutgers can start off strong to dictate the pace of this game. In conference games, home teams need to get the crowd involved with an early run. If they can’t do that, this one could get ugly by the second half.
Illinois is a great team, but Rutgers is on a three-game win streak. They play at home, and they will be motivated to overcome their flaws from the last pairing of these teams.
Still, I’m taking the Fighting Illini to cover the spread. I’m not incredibly confident, but I don’t see Illinois going from such a dominant win to a loss or narrow win against the same team. They proved that there is a mismatch here, and I expect Illinois to be ready for the moment.
This should be a fun game. Both teams have plenty on the line at this point in the year, and Rutgers needs some wins to move up the standings in the Big Ten. Still, I have Illinois covering this one with one of BMR's top-rated sportsbooks.
NCAAB Pick: Illinois -4 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.