The Carolina Hurricanes lost the first two games of their Central Division playoff series at home to the Tampa Bay Lightning and now it shifts to Florida for Game 3 with the Bolts favored to take full command. Which way to lean at sportsbooks?
Thursday, June 03, 2021 – 08:00 PM EDT at Amalie Arena
How good is it to be a sports fan in the Tampa Bay area right now? The Bucs are defending Super Bowl champions and among the favorites to win SB 56. The Rays have the best record in baseball despite one of the league’s lowest payrolls.
And then there are the defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning, who look every bit good enough to repeat. When the Bolts won the 2004 Cup, they didn’t get a chance to officially repeat because the following season was canceled due to the lockout.
Tampa is up 2-0 on the Carolina Hurricanes as the series shifts to Florida for Game 3. Currently on the Bovada NHL futures odds, the Lightning are +275 second-favorites to win the Cup. To make the Finals, which I believe they will, they are -125. Carolina is +2000 to win the Cup and +900. Sorry, but not happening as the Canes aren’t coming back in this series. Carolina is 3-13 in its past 16 games in Tampa. The under hit in 12 of those.
What has to be really aggravating for the Hurricanes is that they have been the better, more aggressive team so far – the Canes lost just three games in regulation at home during the regular season and none in the first round, yet both in this series.
In Game 1, a 2-1 loss, the Hurricanes outshot the Lightning 38-30 and won more faceoffs. In Game 2, also a 2-1 loss, Carolina outshot Tampa Bay a whopping 32-15, won more faceoffs and had more hits. The problem has been Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Unfortunately for the Canes, they probably will be without two top forwards for Game 3 at least. Nino Niederreiter (upper body) didn’t play in either of the first two games and won’t even travel to Tampa. He had 20 goals and 14 assists in the regular season.
Even worse, Vincent Trocheck collided with teammate Warren Foegele skate-on-skate late in the second period in Game 2, tried to return but left the game for good. The 27-year-old Trocheck has two goals and three points in these playoffs and had 17 goals and 43 points across 47 games in the regular season.
I see no reason for Coach Rod Brind’Amour to make a goaltender change as rookie Alex Nedeljkovic has allowed just four goals on 45 shots. Carolina is 7-1 on in its past eight Thursday games.
Want proof this series is almost surely over? Teams that take a 2-0 lead in a best-of-7 hold an all-time series record of 334-51 (.867), including a 4-0 record in these playoffs. And the vast majority of those clubs won the first two at home. The last defending Stanley Cup champion to lead 2-0 in each of its first two series as Tampa has went on to repeat: Pittsburgh in 2017.
Andrei Vasilevskiy was named a Vezina finalist (for a fourth straight year) earlier this week and has been spectacular since Game 5 of the first round vs. Florida, a 4-1 loss. He has allowed just two combined goals in three games since, becoming the third Lightning goaltender to allow one or fewer goals in three straight playoff contests. No Bolts netminder has done it four in a row.
Alex Killorn’s fifth goal of these playoffs gave Tampa a 1-0 lead in Game 2 and then Anthony Cirelli’s third goal of the postseason at 8:06 of the third proved to be the winner.
Tampa Bay now has 34 playoff wins by one goal since the 2011 Stanley Cup playoffs, tied Washington for the most among all teams over that span. The Capitals were eliminated in Round 1 this year. In addition, the Lightning are an astounding 32-1-0 when leading after two periods this year including playoffs.
Blueliner David Savard has yet to play in this series due to injury but is progressing, and he may be available to play as soon as Game 3. He was acquired from Columbus at the trade deadline. He’s a very physical dude at 6-foot-2, 230 pounds.
Considering that Vasilevskiy has lost at home just three times all season, I have to back Tampa Bay even though Carolina will come out desperate.
NHL pick: Lightning Moneyline at -150 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.