Throughout the baseball season, many bettors have resorted to “No Runs First Inning” (NRFI) bets. Most bettors, enjoy the simplicity of the bet knowing that they’ll either win or lose within 30 minutes and then in return, don’t need to watch the remaining eight innings of the game. These are risky bets and it’s hard to find a real edge in just one inning.
But there’s also another market on sportsbooks that the public has dipped into and it’s betting on the first team to score a run. There’s a lot to think about before placing a wager.
First, don’t forget that the road team bats first. Therefore, the road team has a better chance at scoring first because they’ll bat first. However, if you believe a dominant pitcher will be taking the mound and can shut down the visitors in the top half of the first inning, then there will be value on the home team to score first. Here’s a step-by-step list of what to think about when placing a wager for a team to score first.
In this scenario, we’ll put the Dodgers on the road against the Padres. If we’re looking to bet the Padres to score first, we’d want to look at whether or not the Padres can get through the top of the first inning without allowing a run. If the Dodgers bat Mookie Betts (R), Max Muncy (L) and Justin Turner (R) as the first three batters, you’re going to want a pitcher that matches up well with righties and lefties.
If Betts, Muncy and Turner have a combined ISO of .210 with a combined wOBA of .350 against righties, in the last 30 days, for example, you’re going to want a consistent pitcher throwing the ball. With that, you’d feel pretty confident in the pitcher’s ability to get outs against that top of the lineup. Take it into consideration for your MLB odds.
If Yu Darvish allows an xFIP of 2.50 and an wOBA to both sides under .300, chances are he’ll pitch well enough to get through the first inning. If he’s going up against a poor pitcher of the Dodgers like Garrett Clevinger, and the top of the lineup has a high wOBA against righties and matches up well, the Padres would be a good option to score first. It can get confusing, but the data is always key whenever you’re betting baseball.
When you have a poor pitcher going up against a consistent pitcher, you’ve got a really good shot at betting against that poor pitcher and winning the first wager. Don’t worry about moneyline public money or any of that. Worry about the data. It’ll take you a long way to being a profitable bettor no matter what market you choose to attack.