One of the biggest challenges in college football handicapping has always been a home-field advantage. Many oddsmakers have adopted a standard three points, while other power rating systems implement a 2.5-point bump across the board. Other publications have staggered home-field advantage by the size of the home stadium.
But what exactly dictates a home-field advantage for a college football team? Crowd noise influencing officials? Unique field conditions? Travel and rest?
There are plenty of angles, from the altitude in Laramie to the multiple track lanes around the field in Ypsilanti. Legendary Iowa coach Hayden Fry painted the visitors’ locker room pink, while Northwestern grows natural grass as long as possible.
Assigning a blanket number to all 130 FBS teams is the easiest path in determining home-field advantage, but it is not necessarily the correct approach.
Every home team has a variable, from the heat index in September to the cross stadium winds in November, that you could make the case for. But the biggest determination in college football home-field advantage is how often a team beats oddsmakers and the betting market.
There is no shortage of speculative reasons as to why playing at home can be advantageous. Here are some of the top reasons in favor of home-field advantage:
This is an obvious reason behind most of the victories attained by teams playing at home. For example, playing at the LSU Tigers stadium that is filled with 100,000-plus fans screaming at you and taunting you to fail can be very intimidating, especially to small teams or inexperienced players that are used to playing in less crowded environments.
The fatigue that comes with clocking serious miles during travels tends to have an effect on the visiting teams, as they are often tired, which makes it difficult for them to play to the best of their abilities. For example, Boston College traveled a whopping 15,500 round-trip miles in the 2013 season, a factor that was partly responsible for their 2-4 road record at the end of that season.
In 2014, the travels were reduced as Boston College had fewer true road games, and as a result, the team finished with a 4-1 record on the road.
In the book Scorecasting written by Toby Moscowitz and Jon Wertheim, the researchers found out that home teams tend to get slightly preferential treatment from the officials during games. Whether the biased officiating is a result of pressure from the home crowd or involuntary favoritism, the bottom line is that such calls often favor the home team, thus giving them some undue advantage over visiting teams.
Other factors such as unsuitable resting facilities (like locker rooms and resting lodges), or unfamiliar training grounds and playing fields can also negatively influence the efficiency of the visiting teams and favor the home teams.
All factors considered, home-field advantage is a crucial element in NCAAF betting and it won’t be going away any time soon. After all, all teams in college football get to have their own fair share of home games, giving every team a chance to create its own home-field advantage.
For bettors, the biggest takeaway from all these is that careful studies should be made about teams with the best and worst “home field advantages” in the league. By having the knowledge of such trends and combining it with other relevant aspects of college football betting analysis, we will be able to make well-informed betting decisions, particularly on the SU, ATS, and total.