Miami and Milwaukee’s playoff position has not been resolved completely and this matchup could settle matters for one or both depending on the outcome.
Saturday, May 15, 2021 – 08:00 PM EDT at Fiserv Forum
As we look to go into tonight’s tilt, here is Miami’s situation in looking at how seeds 4 to 6 are currently.
The Hawks have just one game remaining and it's a home game against Houston, since they hold the tiebreaker over the Heat, it would appear they will grab the fourth seed. If somehow the Hawks would lose, Miami has to win both games to climb to the fourth spot.
In a tiebreaker with New York, Jimmy Butler’s team has the advantage and as long as they stay even with the Knicks, they will end up with the higher seed. If Miami loses tonight or at Detroit, Sunday and New York and Atlanta win out, the Heat are the 6-seed, the Knicks the 4-seed and the Hawks are 5th.
After a mostly desultory regular season, coach Erik Spoelstra's squad has gotten revitalized. In truth, Spoelstra had arguably his greatest coaching challenge, having his team coming back on a short break after losing in the NBA Finals and having injuries and fatigue to deal with.
Miami comes to the Brew City on an 11-3 SU and ATS run, with the offense on fire. In the Heat’s last eight outings, they have averaged shooting over 54 percent. This has helped take the pressure off this club who had shooting woes over stretches of the season and had to avoid higher scoring affairs, unable to keep pace. That is not a problem any longer and that could be very important with how Milwaukee is playing defense recently.
The Bucks are currently the third seed trailing Brooklyn by one game. It seems like Milwaukee is a longshot to tie or surpass Brooklyn, with them having home games with Chicago and Cleveland, as they will be double-digit favorites in both.
If this is how Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer views it, does he instead of worrying about winning, rest Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton or Jrue Holiday and have them fresher for their first-round foe? That is a legitimate question this time of year, given the scenario we just presented.
Another factor relating to this contest is the Bucks defense or lack of it. In Milwaukee’s past five games, all ATS losses, they have allowed a stunning 129.6 points a game. Any online betting site has oddsmakers that are well aware of this and are setting their betting odds accordingly.
The issue for the Bucks started last year and it continues to be exposed. They concede the most made three-point baskets in the NBA at 14.7 per game and they are 28th in three-point field goal percentage defense. This is something that is not going away and could be the reason for another quicker-than-expected playoff exit.
It’s rather evident by the spread that what we laid out for you about Milwaukee is true, with Miami a 1.5-point road favorite. We don’t exactly know who will be sitting but Antetokounmpo admitted to fatigue after Thursday’s win at Indiana, making him a likely candidate. Based on how Budenholzer has done things in the past, not many starters will see many minutes today or in Chicago tomorrow.
That’s why for NBA picks we’ll cozy up to the Heat, because they are playing for something, need to win and are the more desperate club. It doesn’t hurt also the Bucks are 12-22 ATS versus teams making 46% or more of their shots this season.
NBA Pick: Heat -1.5 points (-108) at Heritage Sports