Heat vs. Mavericks NBA Picks: How to Bet Miami’s Visit to Dallas (Archive)
The Miami Heat (5-1) will meet the Dallas Mavericks (4-2) on TNT on Tuesday night. Miami has won four in a row by at least 13 points while the Mavericks beat Sacramento 105-99 on Sunday.
Miami (5-1 ATS) is a 1.5-point road favorite at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks. The Mavericks are 2-4 ATS, tied for one of the worst records in the league so far. The Mavericks won both meetings with Miami by double digits last season, but it is clear which team has played better to start this season.
Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tuesday, November 02, 2021 – 07:30 PM EDT at American Airlines Center
Miami: Worthy Road Favorite?
The Heat have yet to lose in regulation, only falling to the Pacers in overtime in the second game of the season. The offense has been strong, ranked No. 4 in Offensive Rating, but it’s the No. 1 defense that has helped the Heat to the best Net Rating (+16.5) in the league through six games.
Miami center Bam Adebayo missed Saturday’s win with a knee injury, but he practiced on Monday and is listed as questionable. He is off to a great start, currently averaging 20.6 points and 14.0 rebounds per game.
It sounds like he will be available for the game, but the Heat are still led by Jimmy Butler (25.3 points per game) and Tyler Herro is averaging 22.0 points per game off the bench.
In his first season with the team, 35-year-old Kyle Lowry is averaging a team-high 7.2 assists per game and has not needed to score as much as he did in Toronto.
If Duncan Robinson can find his three-point stroke again, this offense and team will be even more dangerous. Robinson is only shooting 32.1% from three after being over 40% the last two seasons.
A year after the Heat was disappointing as a rebounding team, they lead all teams in rebound percentage (57.0%) this season. The Mavericks rank 28th in rebound percentage (47.4%) and have yet to finish a game better than plus-1 on the boards this season.
The Indiana loss is the only time the Heat failed to win the rebound battle, but even in that game, they were even with the Pacers. Therefore, getting Adebayo back could be a big advantage in this matchup.
Mavericks: Bad Matchup?
Beyond the rebounding disadvantage, there’s a simple fact that the Mavericks have not played great this season while Miami has been so consistent. Dallas is 4-2 but already has road losses of 26 and 31 points to contenders in Atlanta and Denver.
None of the teams Dallas has beaten are projected to be playoff teams this year. Even in a win over Sacramento where Dallas led for all but 40 seconds, the Mavericks still only won by six points.
Despite the presence of all-world talent Luka Doncic, the Mavericks rank 27th in Offensive Rating after finishing 9th a season ago. Dallas is shooting an NBA-worst 40.4% from the field and they are the fourth-worst free-throw shooting team (69.8%) as well.
This is bad news against the top-ranked defense and the only team to hold opponents under 40% shooting.
Doncic himself has not been up to par. He is shooting 42.7% as he did as a rookie instead of the 47.9% he was at a season ago as an MVP candidate. His three-point shot has never been worse, hitting just 23.8% of the time so far.
Kristaps Porzingis has been out with a back injury and is not expected to play on Tuesday. His numbers were brutal in the three games he has suited up for this season, but his absence just puts even more stress on Doncic to deliver, especially against the tougher opponents.
Prediction
This is likely going to be a defensive showdown as the over is 0-6 in Dallas games and 2-4 in Miami games this season.
Dallas is only 16-26 ATS as a home team going back to last year, the fifth-worst spread record in the NBA over that time. I like the Heat to get the cover at the NBA odds and win on the road for your NBA picks this Tuesday.
NBA Pick: Heat -1.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.