Heat vs. Lakers Expert NBA Betting Analysis and Free Pick (Archive)
The Miami Heat (7-3) will meet the Los Angeles Lakers (6-5) this Wednesday evening on ESPN in a rematch of the 2020 NBA Finals. The Heat lost the first game of this five-game road trip in Denver on Monday. The Lakers were able to beat Charlotte 126-123 in overtime. Let’s get into the NBA odds for this game!
Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Wednesday, November 10, 2021 – 10:00 PM EST at Staples Center
Miami is a 3.5-point favorite at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks. The Heat (7-3 ATS) are tied for the second-best spread record in the NBA this season while the Lakers (3-8 ATS) are tied for the second-worst spread record. Can the Heat get back on track on the road? Miami won both meetings last season.
Miami: Up for a Fight?
Miami came out swinging as the top team in the Eastern Conference with a 6-1 record, but the Heat has dropped two of the last three games. The offense failed to crack 100 points against the Celtics and Nuggets, and in the team’s last two games, the Heat have allowed over 110 points for the only two times this season.
In Denver, things got heated between Nuggets MVP Nikola Jokic and Markieff Morris. Jokic received a one-game suspension while Morris and Jimmy Butler are only going to receive fines. So, there won’t be any Miami players missing from that scuffle in this contest.
The Heat is still No. 3 in the league in net rating while the struggling Lakers are No. 18. Slow-paced Miami allows the second-fewest points per game in the paint (40.4) while fast-paced Los Angeles allows an NBA-high 51.1 points per game in the paint.
That feels significant in this matchup where the Lakers have the ninth-highest percentage of points in the paint (44.2%) as they are one of the most reliant offenses on the two-point shot this year. Outside of a red-hot Carmelo Anthony (52.0% from three), the Lakers don’t have great outside shooting to challenge the Heat.
Butler is coming off a strong game with 31 points and a season-high eight assists, but he did not get any help from his four starting teammates in Denver on Monday.
Kyle Lowry finished 0-for-8 from the field and was scoreless in 37 minutes of action. Bam Adebayo also had his worst game of the season with 10 points on 3-of-10 shooting. Top reserve Tyler Herro shot a season-worst 3-of-12 from the field and only scored 11 points after his 29 points helped beat Utah over the weekend.
Miami has been an elite team at rebounding and defense this season, but the Heat had no answers in Denver where Jokic finished with a triple-double. On the bright side, the Heat will not have to face the Los Angeles MVP as LeBron James remains out with an abdominal strain.
Lakers: Just Getting By
The Lakers had to grind out a tough win over Charlotte on Monday night to improve to 2-3 in games without LeBron James this season.
The bench really saved the day thanks to Carmelo Anthony’s 29 points as he continues to dominate from three-point territory. Anthony Davis scored 32 points but had an airball late with a chance to win in regulation. Russell Westbrook had another triple-double (17 points, 12 rebounds, 14 assists), but he again struggled shooting and had seven turnovers, leading to a minus-17 performance.
Los Angeles has relied on Anthony’s shooting maybe more than expected this season. The Lakers are 5-0 when Anthony shoots better than 50% from the field and 1-5 when he is under 50%. Without the services of James, he arguably does become the best scoring option on the team.
Overtime helped the Lakers to a season-high 126 points against Charlotte, but it was one of the few times this season the Lakers got to 115 points in regulation. Charlotte is also arguably the worst defensive team in the league while Miami is one of the best.
The Heat allows opponents to shoot a league-low 41.6% from the field this season. No defense faces more threes per game than Miami, but the Heat have the fourth-lowest 3P% (31.6%) against them as well.
Prediction
I like Miami to shake off the Denver loss and get much better play from Adebayo, Lowry, and Herro to help Butler. The Lakers are 2-6 ATS at home this year and just cannot be trusted without LeBron right now.
Take the better offense and defense from Miami for your NBA picks this Wednesday.
NBA Pick: Heat -3.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.