Bucks First Half(-5)
Hawks vs. Bucks NBA Playoffs Game 2 Expert Analysis and Best Bet (Archive)
The Hawks took care of business behind yet another herculean effort from Trae Young. Can they do it again on the road, or will the Bucks bounce back and dominate at home for our NBA picks?
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Friday, June 25, 2021 – 08:30 PM EDT at Fiserv Forum
Can Superman Show Continue?
Before Game 7 in Philadelphia, Trae Young was hotter than almost any player on the planet. He had four straight games of 25 or more points and after struggling through three quarters of Game 7, Young beat the Sixers in the fourth quarter of that game and then he grabbed the Bucks by the horns and never let go in Game 1 of the conference finals.
Young is one of the best players in the league. At just 22 years old he is already dominating opponents of all calibers and doing it with consistency.
The Hawks have still been able to win games with him having an average performance. Game 7 against the Sixers was an example of that, but the Hawks needed him to put on his cape in the fourth quarter of that one, or they wouldn’t have won.
The same thing is starting to happen here. Can Young do his best Stephen Curry and/or Michael Jordan impression and carry this Hawks team to a series win, or will regression start to hit these Cinderella Hawks starting tonight?
I think it’s the latter and it’s why top sportsbooks are on the Bucks here in the first half. Milwaukee was and is one of the best first half teams in the NBA and I think they show that here in this game with their backs against the wall.
Young cannot continue to carry this team. Absent of him scoring 40 points tonight, I think the Hawks lose. I’m not sure about the margin, but I know one thing, the Bucks are covering the first half.
The Sharp Pick
Outside of a big game from John Collins and some nice rebounding from Clint Capela, no one on the Hawks necessarily had a great game in Game 1. Young had to carry them from down at the half to winning. It’s a formula they have done countless times this postseason.
Considering this, I doubt the Bucks continue guarding Young one-one-one. It isn’t working and with Bogdan Bogdanovic hurt and not 100 percent, there really isn’t anyone else on the Hawks that can kill this Bucks team on offense.
If they are bottling up Young and forcing the ball out of his hands, or forcing him to give up the ball at half court, I can’t see Atlanta winning this first half. Kevin Huerter has proven a lot of people wrong in these playoffs, but he isn’t to a point in his career where he can beat this Bucks team if he is the one initiating the offense.
On top of all this is the Bucks are just a better team, especially at home. So far in the playoffs, and for our NBA odds, they are the second-best first half defense behind the Suns and at home, they are only allowing 96.1 points per 100 possessions in the first half, which is best in the playoffs.
With the Bucks’ 113.4 home first half offensive rating in the postseason, that’s a net rating of +17.3 in the first halves of their six playoff home games. Considering their Game 1 loss and their ability to wear this Hawks team down, I think Milwaukee is the play in the first half.
Outside of Young going for 30-plus first half points, I think Milwaukee covers here in the first two quarters.
NBA Pick: Bucks -5 First Half at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.