With a little better 3-point luck, the Utah Jazz can beat the Memphis Grizzlies and the NBA odds this Wednesday night.
Wednesday 26th May 2021 10:00 PM EDT at Vivint Smart Home Arena
If you’re going to be a fan of either the Memphis Grizzlies or the Utah Jazz, be prepared for pain. Neither team has ever won the NBA title – although the Jazz made the Finals twice, only to lose to Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls. These sad-sack franchises also left behind unhappy fan bases in Vancouver and New Orleans, respectively, taking their teams to even smaller markets in the process. The NBA: It’s soul-crushing. At least somebody has to win this first-round series between the No. 1 Zombie Jazz and the No. 8 Zombie Grizzlies. The Grizz took Sunday’s opener 112-109 as 7.5-point road dogs, and at press time, Heritage have them at +8.5 on their NBA odds board for Game 2 on Wednesday. Deal, or no deal?
Not this time. FiveThirtyEight like Utah to win Game 2 by 10.5 points, so even with Memphis moving from +7.5 to +8.5, that leaves us enough potential profit margin to put the Jazz in our NBA picks for a reasonable sum. We’re going to recommend something smaller, though; Donovan Mitchell (plus-3.5 BPM) will play his first game for Utah since spraining his right ankle on April 16, and as a rule of thumb, players coming off extended layoffs need one or two games to get their sea legs back. Mitchell’s a special case, mind you.
He was reportedly adamant about starting Game 1, but was given the kibosh by Utah’s medical staff, so Mitchell has a little extra motivation to prove them wrong. On the flip side, while the fourth-year “veteran” has grown into one of the better offensive players in the league, Basketball Reference have Mitchell pegged at minus-3.2 according to their On-Off numbers. All the more reason to be wary about his return, and to keep that bet size small.
Plan B would involve the total, which was split down the middle at 5-5 during the first three days of the postseason. These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and their opener slid below the posted total of 216.5 points, but with Mitchell (still a noted non-defender) coming back, we’re not too keen on trying it again – and neither are the sharps.
Wednesday’s total has already climbed from 216.5 to 218 in early action at BetOnline. We may have been tempted to take the Over at that price, too. Between the speedy Grizzlies and Utah’s potent attack, there should be plenty of scoring opportunities for both sides in this matchup. And the Jazz should make more of those shots Wednesday night after hitting just 12 of their 47 trey attempts (25.5 percent) on Sunday. With any luck, we’ll see Ersan Ilyasova (non-COVID illness) play for Utah in Game 2 and put his stretch-big skills to good use, even if it’s just for a few token minutes. Every little bit helps.
NBA Pick: Jazz –8.5 (–108) at Heritage Sports