All 30 MLB teams are in action Wednesday across the 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups, including five afternoon games. We are here with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds provided by top-rated sportsbooks.
These value-bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which favors one side in the Giants vs. Pirates matchup on Wednesday night.
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MLB Pick: Pirates ML (-114) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Wednesday, May 22, 2024 – 06:40 PM ET at PNC Park
This is a pitching matchup between the young and the old. We are supporting Rookie of the Year candidate Jared Jones and the Pirates over reigning Cy Young Award winner but currently struggling with Blake Snell and the Giants.
Impressive Already
Jones is a highly regarded rookie who has certainly lived up to his press clippings so far despite his unlucky 3-4 record. The youngster has displayed great poise in his first taste of the Major Leagues, sporting a 2.89 ERA while ranking seventh in baseball with his excellent 2.74 xFIP. He has an outstanding K/BB ratio that belies his age of 10.17/1.83 per nine innings.
Jared has a very live arm averaging a blazing 97.6 MPH on his fastball, and more importantly, he has excellent command as demonstrated by the low walk rate. Major Leaguers have yet to figure Jones out as he has a very nice 18.4% swinging-strike rate, and we expect that success to continue for at least his first time through the league. And yes, this is the first time the Giants are facing him.
Another Slow Start
Snell has always had a history of slow starts throughout his career, oftentimes followed by fantastic finishes. He even followed this pattern during his Cy Young season last year, posting a 5.40 ERA and 4.69 xFIP through May 25th followed by a 1.20 ERA and 3.27 xFIP the rest of the season. And he has made just three starts so far in 2024 due to injury, which may delay his customary turnaround even further.
As usual, Blake has been his bad early self at 0-3 with an ungodly 11.57 ERA. Yes, that has only been through 11.2 innings, but his career pattern suggests that the slow start is not a fluke. Furthermore, his current swinging-strike rate of 12.3% is at its lowest point since 2017 while he is struggling with command, with a walk rate of 3.86/9.
The Pick
We may feel differently about this matchup later in the season, but right now we have no issue betting on the promising Jones as a small favorite over the slow-starting Snell.
Predicted Score: Pirates 5 – Giants 3
MLB Pick: Pirates ML (-114) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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