It’s first place against last place in the NFC East on Sunday as the Dallas Cowboys host the New York Giants. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Sunday, October 10, 2021 – 04:25 PM EDT at AT&T Stadium
One could argue that the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys are two of the most improved teams in the NFC this season.
The Cowboys lead the NFC East and are legitimate Super Bowl threats with a healthy Dak Prescott and vastly improved defense. True, the Giants are just 1-3 but they are definitely playing better than in 2020, especially QB Daniel Jones, and could easily be 3-1.
It’s the first of two meetings between division rivals with the Giants hosting the Cowboys in Week 15. Last year, the teams split with each winning at home.
The one at AT&T Stadium essentially torpedoed the Cowboys’ season because it was the game Prescott went down with a season-ending leg/ankle injury. Dallas managed to still win that one 37-34 on a Greg Zuerlein 34-yard field goal as time expired. He also hit the tying field goal with 1:56 left from 40 yards.
Dallas is 6-2 ATS on the NFL odds in the past eight meetings.
New York (3-1) definitely deserved to lose Week 1 at home, 27-13, to Denver but lost on field goals as time expired in Week 2 at Washington (which the Giants would have won but not for a penalty) and Week 3 vs. Atlanta (Giants blew a 14-7 lead with about four minutes left).
One could argue that Big Blue shouldn’t have won last Sunday trailing in New Orleans 21-10 with about seven minutes left, but Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley led a 27-21 overtime victory to get head coach Joe Judge off the hot seat temporarily.
Jones was terrific in throwing for 402 yards and two scores, and Barkley looked back to pre-torn ACL form in turning a Jones pass into a 54-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter and rushing for the winning six-yard score in OT.
Don’t look now, but Jones is a good quarterback – he used to be a turnover machine but has only two this season with a rating over 90.0 in each game (one of only four QBs in the NFL to do that in 2021). He was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week for his efforts in New Orleans. It was the third time in his career that Jones led the Giants from a fourth-quarter deficit or tie to a victory.
Jones was without starting receivers Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton in Week 4 due to hamstring injuries and it’s unclear whether they will play Sunday.
Rookie Kadarius Toney and free-agent addition John Ross both played very well in their places and likely earned more snaps regardless. With those two speedsters in the lineup, Jones attempted five passes of more than 20 yards in Week 4 after throwing seven combined in the season’s first three weeks. The Giants’ offensive coordinator is Jason Garrett, the former Cowboys coach.
New York has started eight different offensive linemen, the NFL’s second-highest total behind the Eagles’ nine, due to injuries. That group didn’t allow a sack vs. the Saints. New York is now 10-4 ATS on the NFL odds in its past 14 as a dog.
Dallas (3-1) is the only team with a winning record in the NFC East and a -285 favorite to win it at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks. The Cowboys could be 4-0 but lost a thriller in Week 1 at Tampa Bay on a last-second field goal.
QB Dak Prescott could become the first player to win the NFL MVP and Comeback Player of the Year in the same season – he’s a +525 favorite for MVP at BetOnline (visit out BetOnline Review) and a heavy -300 favorite for Comeback. In last Sunday’s 36-28 win over previously unbeaten Carolina, Prescott only threw 22 passes but had four touchdowns to four different receivers.
Play action has been stellar for Prescott as defenses have to protect against the run with the Cowboys ranking No. 2 in the NFL in rushing as 165.8 ypg. A reborn Ezekiel Elliott ranks fourth in the league with 342 yards rushing even though he’s giving up carries to Tony Pollard.
Defensively, the Cowboys have two award candidates in rookie linebacker Micah Parsons (+250 favorite for or Defensive Rookie of the Year) and cornerback Trevon Diggs (+450 for Defensive Player of the Year). Diggs has an NFL-best five picks, including at least one in every game.
In a pretty big surprise this week, the Cowboys released former Pro Bowl linebacker, Jaylon Smith. Dallas will have to pay his $7.6 million salary this year but chose to dump Smith in case he was injured, which would have guaranteed his $9.2 million salary next year. Smith had been losing snaps and clearly not the player he was in 2019 when he was named to the Pro Bowl and got a big extension.
The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS on the NFL odds in their past four at home. Frankly, I hate this spread right on 7 points and would take Dallas at an alternate line of -6.5. But since that’s not an option for this NFL pick…
NFL Pick: Cowboys at -7 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
NFL Pick: Over 52 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.