Free NCAA Basketball Picks: Our Best Bets for February 16 (Archive)
The Jacksonville Dolphins have won five of their last six games on the season. With an 8-4 record in conference play, the Dolphins are still sniffing the top of the standings. Will the Dolphins hang on against the Stetson Hatters for our best bets? Let’s break down the NCAAB odds for this game!
Jacksonville Dolphins vs. Stetson Hatters
Wednesday, February 16, 2022 – 7:00 PM EST at Edmunds Center
The Jacksonville Dolphins have won five of their last six games and will now head out on the road to take on the Stetson Hatters. The Dolphins are coming off a massive home win against Liberty and should be able to use that momentum going into this game, on the road.
Jacksonville won’t take a whole lot of threes but has hit 36 percent of them this season. The Dolphins are selective with their three-point shooting and would rather work inside. Inside, Jacksonville is only shooting 46.1 percent, however, Stetson is allowing teams to shoot 53.3 percent from inside the arc this season.
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In the first meeting between these two teams, Jacksonville legitimately shoots over 53 percent from inside the arc, in a 57-50 win, at home. The Dolphins are also earning 32.4 percent offensive rebounds and while turnovers can get high against some teams in the ASUN Conference, Stetson only averages 15.9 percent turnovers.
Meanwhile, Stetson is also allowing teams to shoot a 53 percent effective field goal percentage and allowing teams to not only shoot 53.3 percent inside but also 35 percent from outside. Defensive rebounding has been above average for Stetson this season, but Jacksonville is very aggressive on the glass and should be able to get a solid amount of second-chance points.
On the other hand, Stetson has an effective field goal percentage of 49.3 percent but doesn’t work the glass nearly as well. Stetson is averaging just 28.2 percent offensive rebounds while also struggling to get to the line at a high rate.
The Hatters have hit 34.3 percent from deep, but Jacksonville has been fundamentally sounding on the defensive end, holding opponents to 29.9 percent from three this season. The Dolphins have also held opponents to just 22.9 percent offensive rebounds, so don’t be expecting many second chances from Stetson in this game.
Prediction
Neither team will play starters with two fouls and both teams use their bench at an above-average rate. Also, in the last meeting, these two teams were in foul trouble very early and Jacksonville got to the line 27 times.
However, the Dolphins shot very poorly at the line, converting on just over 55 percent of the foul shots. With Jacksonville averaging 68.4 percent from the line, if the Dolphins get their opportunity again at the line, I’d like to believe things will be better in this game, even on the road.
Essentially, Jacksonville should be able to win the rebounding battle, earn more attempts at the line, and defend at a much higher rate. For my NCAAB picks, so give me Jacksonville as the short favorite, on the road.
NCAAB Pick: Jacksonville -134 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.