Free NBA Picks: Our Best Bets for January 31 (Archive)
After suffering an unexpected loss last night in Detroit, the Cleveland Cavaliers look to bounce back tonight when they host the New Orleans Pelicans. As for the Pelicans, they have lost three straight after their most recent defeat in Boston.
This would seem like a get-right spot for the Cavs so let’s take a look at the NBA odds to see if we can cash here.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Monday, January 31, 2022 – 07:00 PM EST at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Cavs Are Winning Games by Margin
On the season, the Cleveland Cavaliers are winning games by an average of 4.6 points per game. While that might not seem like much to those not paying attention, that is the fourth-best percentage in the league.
When you consider that the only teams ahead of them in that category are the Warriors, Suns and Jazz, you get a better idea of how far this Cavaliers organization has come this season. Darius Garland is expected to be chosen as an All-Star reserve in the East and he's not the only player on the team in contention.
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That is why tonight, despite the fact that the New Orleans Pelicans have the rest advantage, the Cavs are still -8 point favorites at home. On the season, Cleveland is 5-4 with no rest so there is a reason for concern about this large spread.
Personally, I'm going with the narrative here which is; good team losses to a bad team on the road and bounces back early at home against another bad team. The Pelicans do qualify as another bad team and they come into this game having lost three straight.
New Orleans Not Good Enough to Compete
It might seem harsh to say that the Pelicans aren't good enough to compete with Cleveland but I do honestly believe that. While I do think -8 is a lot for a team that played last night with travel included (although the trip is very short from Detroit to Cleveland), I think early on, the Cavs are the play.
The first half spread of -4.5 is a number that I like a lot in this spot. It's under two possessions which is crucial because, on the season, the Cavs are one of the best first-half teams in the NBA.
Cleveland's 8.6 first-half net rating is second only to the Milwaukee Bucks. For their part, the Pelicans are one of the worst first-half teams in the league with a net rating of -4.2 which is 25th overall.
The Pick
I think after a tough loss to the second-worst team in the league who also happens to be a division rival, Cleveland comes out tonight with a heightened sense of enthusiasm for this game.
On top of that, Cleveland is about to enter a tough stretch where 7 of their next 10 games are on the road so winning home games at this stage of the season is a must for them.
These games (including the ones on the road) are very winnable and I think that last night's loss was exactly the wake-up call they need before this stretch. I'm taking the Cavs in the first half for my NBA pick tonight.
NBA Pick: Cavaliers 1st Half -4.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.